Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening friday, DOW +66

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2048. The market had closed at SPX 2040 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.45M v 5.33M. The market continued to rally until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2058. Then after a pullback to SPX 2048 by 3:30 the market bounced to close at 2052.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open today, traded as high as SPX 2058, and then pulled back. The market did clear the 2043 pivot range today and it looks like it is headed, over the next few days, to the 2070 pivot range next. This was noted yesterday after the SPX 2026 low, that formed a positive divergence. Today we updated the charts to clear the i/a and ii/b counts. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to Friday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Stay short people. All the best.


  2. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony and everyone x


    • fionamargaret says:

      ..and Carl Futia….


      • fionamargaret says:

        ….Nyquist, Exaggerator, Stradivari…..


        • Ajay Singhi says:

          Hi Fiona,

          The fall from 2111 appears to be a tripple zig zag, indicating that one wave up on SPX is still pending. Only problem is that unless we have some failed 5th wave at 2026, it is very difficult to count the move from 2025 as an impulse. If 2025-26 was indeed the bottom of a deep C4, we should see a very swift rise towards 2111 in the next few days.

          You had asked me about nifty. While the structure of S&P from 1810 may still led some to believe that this could be an impulse(it’s not), nifty structure leaves no doubt. February low on nifty will break within August.




  3. Jack Sparrow says:

    how do we post a graph here. thanks


  4. simpleiam says:

    Auntie Janet telegraphed a rate hike this time, almost in the exact same manner as she did last year. I think it would be foolish not to believe her.


    • torehund says:

      Agree, something is looming. Pension crisis and inflation, you can’t hide it under the rug forever.
      Strikes emerging here in Norway, latest the poor Hotel-workers. To be competitive the hotels can only offer marginally higher wages compared to social benefits. That implies hotels are next to worthless as there aren’t leaving any yield to the owners.
      Let the migrants get them for free 🙂
      Or put them on fire and scoop in the insurance.
      Seriously, for society its far better to let them go BK, Gov then buys them for pennies on the dollar and give them free to the migrants. But if I am not far off, the hotel owners will continue making their shady deals with the Gov (extracting 100 usd a night per migrant), washing even more money out of the oil fund.
      This is outright fraud, and when the citizens finally wake up I hope both parts will be hanging out to dry.


      • simpleiam says:

        Hey tore! I’m sorry to hear about the troubles in Norway. I know numerous people stationed there, and they’ve always loved it, and the people too.

        I disagree with the inflation scenario, but rather think Yellen is terrified of negative interest rates. Although these hikes are only 0.25, I think she wants to get as many under her panty hose as possible. This is hardly normalization of interest rates, but more that of trying to defend against a downward spiral.

        You’re right about something under the rug. One can only guess what that is until ALL is finally revealed.


  5. Bob Sagget says:

    The $SPX has been beneath the middle BB since the start of May. How can anyone proclaim we are headed to ATHs? (Unless you receive clandestine Tweets from the Fed informing when QE4 is coming). Also, this board itself is somewhat of an indicator. Ever since May began most of the obnoxiously bullish posts have dissipated.


  6. Daneric has come up with wave 2 as an expanded flat, same as I proposed earlier. Below is his chart of the WLSH. I also apply this pattern to the other indicies, some of which have yielded 2 retracing higher than 1, a violation. So I’ve gone to a modified method that is 1.) Form First, 2.) Price Second, 3.) Rules. I justify this by saying EW doesn’t work anyway when sentiment and social mood are not the drivers of the market. Laugh all you want, but this approach will allow some use from EW in a fully rigged market.

    Therefore the dump in late 2015 completed the first reversal wave, wave 1 at intermediate degree, starting wave 1 primary degree of cycle degree C. Cycle degree C down should be a 5 wave structure of huge magnitude.


  7. Abc from 2111 38% Fib of wave 3

    ATH Ahead


  8. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, and enjoy the favorable weather.
    Good weekend to all on board.


  9. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.


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