Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening friday, DOW +66

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.3%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market gapped up at the open to SPX 2048. The market had closed at SPX 2040 yesterday. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.45M v 5.33M. The market continued to rally until 11:30 when the SPX hit 2058. Then after a pullback to SPX 2048 by 3:30 the market bounced to close at 2052.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.15%. Bonds gained 2 ticks, Crude slipped 20 cents, Gold dipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.

The market gapped up at the open today, traded as high as SPX 2058, and then pulled back. The market did clear the 2043 pivot range today and it looks like it is headed, over the next few days, to the 2070 pivot range next. This was noted yesterday after the SPX 2026 low, that formed a positive divergence. Today we updated the charts to clear the i/a and ii/b counts. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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79 Responses to Friday update

  1. Scott C says:

    Hi everyone, Anyone have a count on the airlines/DAL? Curious what it could look like with the bear market move.

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Stay short people. All the best.

  3. fionamargaret says:
    • fionamargaret says:

      ..and Carl Futia….

      • fionamargaret says:

        ….Nyquist, Exaggerator, Stradivari…..

        • Ajay Singhi says:

          Hi Fiona,

          The fall from 2111 appears to be a tripple zig zag, indicating that one wave up on SPX is still pending. Only problem is that unless we have some failed 5th wave at 2026, it is very difficult to count the move from 2025 as an impulse. If 2025-26 was indeed the bottom of a deep C4, we should see a very swift rise towards 2111 in the next few days.

          You had asked me about nifty. While the structure of S&P from 1810 may still led some to believe that this could be an impulse(it’s not), nifty structure leaves no doubt. February low on nifty will break within August.



  4. Jack Sparrow says:

    how do we post a graph here. thanks

  5. simpleiam says:

    Auntie Janet telegraphed a rate hike this time, almost in the exact same manner as she did last year. I think it would be foolish not to believe her.

    • torehund says:

      Agree, something is looming. Pension crisis and inflation, you can’t hide it under the rug forever.
      Strikes emerging here in Norway, latest the poor Hotel-workers. To be competitive the hotels can only offer marginally higher wages compared to social benefits. That implies hotels are next to worthless as there aren’t leaving any yield to the owners.
      Let the migrants get them for free🙂
      Or put them on fire and scoop in the insurance.
      Seriously, for society its far better to let them go BK, Gov then buys them for pennies on the dollar and give them free to the migrants. But if I am not far off, the hotel owners will continue making their shady deals with the Gov (extracting 100 usd a night per migrant), washing even more money out of the oil fund.
      This is outright fraud, and when the citizens finally wake up I hope both parts will be hanging out to dry.

      • simpleiam says:

        Hey tore! I’m sorry to hear about the troubles in Norway. I know numerous people stationed there, and they’ve always loved it, and the people too.

        I disagree with the inflation scenario, but rather think Yellen is terrified of negative interest rates. Although these hikes are only 0.25, I think she wants to get as many under her panty hose as possible. This is hardly normalization of interest rates, but more that of trying to defend against a downward spiral.

        You’re right about something under the rug. One can only guess what that is until ALL is finally revealed.

  6. Bob Sagget says:

    The $SPX has been beneath the middle BB since the start of May. How can anyone proclaim we are headed to ATHs? (Unless you receive clandestine Tweets from the Fed informing when QE4 is coming). Also, this board itself is somewhat of an indicator. Ever since May began most of the obnoxiously bullish posts have dissipated.

  7. Daneric has come up with wave 2 as an expanded flat, same as I proposed earlier. Below is his chart of the WLSH. I also apply this pattern to the other indicies, some of which have yielded 2 retracing higher than 1, a violation. So I’ve gone to a modified method that is 1.) Form First, 2.) Price Second, 3.) Rules. I justify this by saying EW doesn’t work anyway when sentiment and social mood are not the drivers of the market. Laugh all you want, but this approach will allow some use from EW in a fully rigged market.

    Therefore the dump in late 2015 completed the first reversal wave, wave 1 at intermediate degree, starting wave 1 primary degree of cycle degree C. Cycle degree C down should be a 5 wave structure of huge magnitude.

    • captbara says:

      B goes too far past A, looks wrong for flats.

    • aahmichael says:

      Sorry, but that count defies all logic. He’s claiming that 5 of 1 failed on 9/29. To have such a failure means that the downtrend is very weak, and the countertrend forces are incredibly strong. If that was the case, then it would be impossible for the countertrend wave to be an expanded flat, because that would imply just the opposite!

      • aahmichael says:

        oops: I didn’t look at the chart closely. I assumed it was the SPX. W5000 did make a lower low on 9/29, but it was the only index that did so. SPX, DOW, XMI, OEX, NYA, IWR, COMP, and NDX didn’t. In addition, your propposed 4 of (1) overlapped 1 of (1) in COMP and NDX, and your proposed A of (2) made a new ATH in NDX. All of those waves are corrective.

      • Yes 5 of 1 failed but its not weak. You don’t get a complete collapse like that, forming a wave 1, and think its weak. It certainly isn’t a wave 4.

    • 123 abc says:

      Isn’t this count the same as Robert Prechter’s count?

    • bud67 says:

      Not Laughing, just makes good sense,
      thank you..

  8. Abc from 2111 38% Fib of wave 3

    ATH Ahead

  9. torehund says:

    Thanks Tony, and enjoy the favorable weather.
    Good weekend to all on board.

  10. Page says:

    Thanks Tony.

  11. blackjak100 says:

    I criticized Rory for displaying an invalid ED this AM. Well he somewhat corrected it and seems to be on the right track now.

  12. Jack Sparrow says:

    Fotis -buddy if you want to look at pattern similarity – look at the monthly chart do you see any thing common between two months before the december drop and now….:)

  13. ABchart says:

    Thanks Tony!
    I would like to say, and it’s only my view and not an advice, if you are an equity investor, your last chance to leave the market, it’s next week. You can still do it with some loss by the end of June because by then the volatility will remain reasonable and the SPX can still bounce from 1960 around 2050 one last time. But from early July the drop could be brutal during 3/4 months target 1700/50. There will be a bounce from late October until February 2017, maybe Tony’s Primary B, but small, barely 150/200 points, and the decline will be even more violent, only 5/6 months to drop toward 1200 (40/45% drop)
    One day, Tony wrote that the bear market will end in 2017. I thought it was too fast beacause of the ECB and the BOJ QEs , but now my system indicates the end of the bear market by the summer of 2017 (August or September).
    Will post a LT chart later if no one insulted me by then…

    • beginner101 says:

      AB, with sentiment so bearish, is it possible to get such a strong move down with grandma and grandpa on the short side? cpc was 1.37 yesterday and cpce was .8. still think the bots will run through more short stops before collapsing. look forward to seeing your long-term chart. thanks

      • ABchart says:

        Hello Beginner,

        The consensus, as of yesterday, is bullish at 71% on the SPX. Highest since May 2015.

        The blogs you read does not represent the reality😉

    • Page says:

      Agree, it will be one heck of a volatility. Thanks AB.

    • tony caldaro says:

      merci AB forget about the trolls
      welcome to the dark side😉

      • torehund says:

        Tony, its a time when lies have become the truth, and advocating the opposite of truth is nowadays converted to a force of dominance.
        Lets hope Trump front runs Martial law.
        To be quite honest, 2 countries in Martial Law in Europe (Belgium and France) isn’t instilling any confidence, ship is sailing on a steady route toward Totalitarianism.

        Just a late hour Norwegian if I may; money that should have been funneled to integration of migrants ends up in the budget of Asphalt and new employment of secretaries in the public sector. Migrants are loathed and used as a dirty pretext to whitewash money out of the petroleum fund into the pockets of bureaucrats.
        Haven’t seen any new asphalt for a long time either🙂

  14. rd3777 says:

    Might get further rally like TC says….or the bottom falls out.either way it’s only a matter of time. The downsloping pattern tells you it is a bearish outcome. Thanks TC

  15. I ask again to everyone out there.

    Do you know any blogger/twitter/subscription site which has been doing very well in past years trading these hard mkts ? Please share info if you know anyone out there you like.

    Thank you

    • rd3777 says:

      You’re sitting in the masters house…search no more.

      • So you think Tony has been the best of them all during past many years ? thank for info

        • Page says:

          You got it and it is free too so why pay to someone else?🙂

        • aahmichael says:

          While 99% of the people who post in the comments section here are daytraders/scalpers, Tony’s comments are much more long term in nature. Also, Tony never posts trades or trading strategies…on any time frame. Nevertheless, anyone who relies on the opinions and analysis of others will never be a successful trader over the long run. You have to learn to do it all yourself, and you also have to learn to never consider the opinions or analysis of others. The more opinions you seek out, then the more screwed your trading results will be. Finally, daytrading is a losing endeavor for almost all who engage in it.

    • blackjak100 says:

      It has been difficult and it’s impossible to predict B waves with any accuracy. they can take on so many forms and churn sideways. This is the situation we are in now. However, I believe it’s easy from here because it’s very likely we are in last c wave up of Int B. that tells me there will be very nice R/R to get short probably next week.

      • respectfully disagree

        The signs of a bottom where all around you this week between Carl Icahn Jim Cramer George Soros Goldman Sachs and Dennis gartman all yelling at everyone to sell.

        5 day put to call Ratio at 1.37

        %nyse stocks trading above 50 day ema went from 90 to 45.

        nasi indicator nearing the February lows

        The perfect 38% Fibonacci retracement Wave 4 of the 1892 – 2111 Wave 3 at 1925 this week

        The evidence of a major wave up to all-time highs is all over the place and we can add in biotech Pharmaceuticals and now Chip stocks moving

        • pooch77 says:

          Check out Channel and Pattern blog,and Pretzels blog along with T.C.

        • blackjak100 says:

          yes there were signs of a bounce which is all this is. Once 2041 was overlapped, a bounce was almost a guarantee. 2026 is not the major 2 bottom. you are crazy to think 2026 was ‘the bottom’ when the S&P barely finished the week positive and the DOW is down 4 weeks straight. Still need 5 waves down as ED or impulse to complete

    • Carl Futia has documented his ES trading performance.

      He is the ONLY person that I have ever seen in the blogosphere actually post his trades real-time. Other than that, I believe that 90% of the bloggers out there are not active traders or don’t even trade.

      • blackjak100 says:

        Scott redler is real time if you join the VTF

        • rigged09 says:

          I have joined those guys in the past. S R is not that great, the way he presents things on the twitter-sphere. Those guys have no clue when to short the markets. Ask them what are their P/L % and you will know where they stand!

          • Curls Curls says:

            rigg – what have you observed of tony caldaro’s info? I just came across this site today.

            • rigged09 says:

              First of all let me tell you that Tony is great! I can say that Tony tries to help and do his best. He does not charge us for his work. Finally it’s on you to decide how you take his information in your trading. I have been visiting this blog for few years and I make sure that I visit this place everyday. At the end of the day, it is all about the profit in your portfolio. There is no single trade secret!

    • CampFreddie says:

      Cyclea – Yes, BuddyGlove who posts here sometimes is pretty cute. He has pretty much nailed all of the major S&P turning points over the last few years, including the recent November lows in the Spx, Oil, and Commodities. He is a modest humble soul, but his track record Knocks the “Guru muppets on sticks” into a cocked hat. GL.

    • pooch77 says:

      Check out Channel and Pattern blog,and Pretzels blog along with T.C.

  16. Pingback: Friday update – Cathedral Group Capital

  17. 123 abc says:

    Thank you Tony et al. The updated count sure is interesting.

    Particular interest is the updated Major-a wave count —now as a three wave affair instead of five. Followed by another three waves for Major-b wave. Therefore, one would expect the intention portrayed is for Primary-a to form a Flat or (Expanded/Irregular Flat in the DOW). And if so, Major-c wave ought to unfold in five impulsive waves —but so far the first wave of Major-c is marked as ‘a’ instead of the ‘i’ label…! Or, is a 3-3-3 decline for Primary-a acceptable under OEW theory?

    Hopefully the OEWcc (coffee-club) this weekend shall be able to clarify.Thank you for all your expertise and sharing OEW theory.

  18. stmro says:

    Still bouncing below the middle bb, still lower lows and lower highs, still bearish, but frustratingly choppy.

  19. Jack Sparrow says:

    for a moment if we think rationally without emotions- the move from 2111 (I got it right this time -FM) to 2020s is all convoluted- different ways to read it…however if we disregard that for a moment and start from yesterday the move up- so far its not looking good for bears- i see a clear 5 wave up and the afternoon decline has clear abc written on it. the question is in last half an hour did we start wave 3…we take it one day at a time (thats a prudent thing to do ) and so far its not looking good for bear for today at least..(the only thing that keep my bearish spell alive is the oil)- it could be we make a new high before feds and interest rate takes it effect in next few days after we made a new high…..

    • Jack Sparrow says:

      start 3 to upside…

      • fotis2 says:

        Last drop had some big weekly candles before tanking

        • EL MATADOR says:

          move the first box over to May 2015 ATH …. then compare the candles …🙂

        • Jack Sparrow says:

          i think past comparisons are half hearted attempts to justify our thinking- the move from 2111 fits better under corrective move at the moment but lets keep that aside because some can argue its not corrective- however the move from yesterday is a clear five move with abc decline in the afternoon- i think we take it one step or day a time (we’ll get more clarity on monday)- thats a prudent thing to do

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            Well jack were the moves from May to July in 15 look corrective or impulsive? Did the moves from December last year look corrective or impulsive?

            • Jack Sparrow says:

              i wasn’t around at that time for the markets so dont know. All i am saying is the jury is still out there so we take it one step at a time rather then making market calls at this time .
              we’ll correct substantially – the question is from here or after completing the move up (if its a move up that started yesterday)- my 200 IQ tells me to be at 0 IQ instead of speculating an answer to this question.. I can easily argue that move down will start once fed actually increase the rate in June till then debate will rage on with the likes of holly et al…

              • CB says:

                Quite possibly the Fed will use “the Brexit excuse” (as it’s conveniently scheduled after the Fed mtg) in order not to raise rates in June, in which case they’ll want a strong rally afterwards to show how much the market loves their decision (on low summer volume, easy to engineer,..) If that’s the case we need to finish the correction before their June mtg. (lots off fluff on the charts to deal with before letting any “chasers” ride a rally higher without any effort; WS is not in the business of giving gifts to chasers, never ever..😉 . And let’s remember, we can always have a major move down on Trump. All in all, they Fed will look good (as always), they’ll wait to raise rates (there’s always an excuse for that…like waiting for higher GDP growth etc..) and everybody will blame Trump for a drop later on..
                OK, just a speculation.

          • EL MATADOR says:

            Yes and No Sparrow …… everything in life revolves around patterns most patterns are regular and have a high predictable probability but irregular patterns existing too but tend to have low predictable probability.

    • aahmichael says:

      I only count 3 waves up from yesterday’s low to today’s high on the 5 minute bars (a 5-3-5 subdivision.) Nevertheless, for now, I’m less concerned about the various potential wave counts, as I am hyper-focused on the weekly candlesticks. When I look at the last 6 weekly bars that we just put in (from 4/15/16 to today’s close,) and compare them to the 6 weekly bars starting with 7/03/15 through 8/14/15, I see a carbon copy, especially how it relates to the 50 wma. Also, whenever you see choppy action like we’ve been having, it frequently turns out to be a running correction. (in this case, a running correction in a downtrending market.)

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