Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -91

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.4%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 278K v 294K, and the Philly FED was reported lower: -1.8% v -1.6%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 2039, then declined to 2028 by 10am. The market had closed at SPX 2048 yesterday. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.6% v +0.2%. The market then bounced to SPX 2035 by 10:30, before heading to 2026 just past 11am. Then the market started to rally. Heading into the close the market hit SPX 2042, then dipped to close at 2040.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.45%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.55%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost 15 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: a speech from FED governor Tarullo at 9am, Existing home sales at 10am, and it’s Options expiration Friday.

The market gapped down at the open for the first time in two weeks. The market then made a new downtrend low at SPX 2026, within the upper range of the 2019 pivot. After that the market started to rally. While the trend is still down, if the SPX can clear the 2043 pivot it is possible it could rally back to the 2070 pivot. Pivot ping pong so to say. After that it should resume the downtrend. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum displayed a very slight positive divergence at today’s lows. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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201 Responses to Thursday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    It took 13 weeks from May 15 to thrust down. It took 9 weeks from Nov 16 to thrust down. We are in week 5 now from 2111

  2. simpleiam says:

    True that $50 Oil is not high enough to get US producers moving, but Iranians, etc. will make up for it. Disagree that in 5 yrs. Crude will have a deficit. (Shell Oil Co. propaganda.)

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Hope you all got on board?

  4. fotis2 says:

    Darn thing goes up again am having a double ouzo ..with Kool aid grape.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    They really may pin the 205 strike. If TJ’s count is correct, the expanded flat int B target is 2100ish. It only needs to exceed 2085 to avoid a truncation. major 2 clearly not complete as we still don’t have 5 waves down for int C. the question now is will minor C of int B form an ending diagonal or impulse? I would not be shocked if it’s an ED which completes late next week.

  6. avkanoi says:

    Last few times Tony made his downtrend confirmation, markets rallyed like crazy. Seems like bots are doing this deliberately. Tony’s blog followers like me just can’t go against our
    ‘ Guru ‘

  7. Fiona will not have a double top, possibly a double bottom at 2027/2030 SPX. Hopefully. Other way a nice long entry will be at 2040/2042 still SPX.

    I am expecting a minor wave 5 for the Major 1 of PV.

    Sorry, they all making wrong, this is the 4. Pointing at 2150 at the minimum

    • the 5th pointing at. The 4th bombed yesterday, hoping a db bottom for ideal entry

    • jhjoyner says:

      Guess you are unaware we had a failed 5th wave?

      • There has been not failing fifth. It was the B of Major 4.

        But if like to see it a failed 5th, up to you.

        That wasn’t a wave was the C of B that have been followed by the C of B. At that point to don’t admit the mistake they all have been insisting for the failed 5TH.



    • 2111 for the 1 of 3 of 5

    • fionamargaret says:

      2011 was part of a sequence which has yet to go higher….perhaps….is this any more silly than every person having a H&S…
      I am glad you are considering common sense and logic….

      • fionamargaret says:

        This was not in reply to Francesca, but a blogger who had become obnoxious.

        • CB says:

          just complained to Tony about your obnoxious post, where you see an insult when there was none. Calling something nonsense is an opinion, not an insult. Tony himself removed your “algo” post …he must have likely thought that it was not all that infromative or credible. Why would he have removed it, otherwise…

          Happy now, or you still want a “thank you”…or wait, you want a free lunch, right?

  8. simpleiam says:

    And now the media blitz is on… Ridiculous.

  9. This one is pretty reliable as far as trend, and we are finally getting some curl. The lines cross a bit after “Gaame Over”.

    • CB says:

      Nice chart, Wile. Thanks for posting it.
      We could face the same “conundrum” now, similar to the action between last Nov and Jan’ 16. Definitely something worth watching…

  10. Page says:

    UVXY is itching to make move higher … it will definitely close green.

  11. I’m still llooking for a series of LLs. And I’m backed up by Llarry over at Lloyd’s Llamas, LLC.

  12. Discussion of extended 4Y cycles by Tim Wood. ” I believe that this is THE most dangerous stock market environment since the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896.”

    • simpleiam says:

      Hey Wile. I’d be kind of surprised if stocks fell that far that fast, again; not that it can’t. Of course, life is full of surprises, but I think it might be at least 2019 before a bottom, if not later, then bounce there in a range for a couple, to a few years. Can’t remember what stormchaser’s chart had; either 2021, or 2025 before the bottom.

      I’m always open to changing conditions, but expect, at present, a scenario that will hurt a lot of people/investors to the point they stay away from stocks for a number of years; much more so than 2008-2009. After that, DJI 50K-100K is not out of the question. I’ve lived to see it go from 600 to 18K, so multiplier should be great. Next and most important question is, will I, and a number of others on this board live long enough to see it?

    • ostealth says:

      That’s what I expect

  13. captbara says:

    BoJ meeting over the weekend will either give big up or down. Yen weakness over the last couple days was keeping SP afloat, pretty obvious.

    USDJPY and DXY are threatening to fly upwards out of their falling wedges on weekly also.

  14. jhjoyner says:

    Pretty simple spy pin 205.

  15. Also, I got the first 5 minor waves completed as well on this run. A good point to get long is at 2019/2030 for the continuation. You can follow up on the daily chart, we have perfectly bounced on the 50% Fibonacci traced from the top of wave 1, 1946 to the high 2111.

    Cheers all

  16. I see a wave 4 ending soon if not already. Anyhow, daily chart, bullish flag.

  17. fionamargaret says:

    …next thing to watch is resistance at about 49 in oil ……UWTI
    I think it will break through and go to 55, before turning lower, correcting to 40 over summer.

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