Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: another volatile FOMC day, DOW -3

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.3%. US index futures were choppy overnight, and the market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2047 close. In the opening minutes the SPX ticked down to 2040, then rallied to 2055 by 10:30. After a pullback to SPX 2048 by 11am, the market rallied to 2061 just ahead of the FOMC: The market then dropped sharply to SPX 2034 by 2:30. Then it rallied to SPX 2049 by 3pm, pulled back to 2039 by 3:30, then ended the day at 2048.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.40%. Bonds lost 29 ticks, Crude slipped 65 cents, Gold dropped $21, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened lower today, immediately reversed nearly reaching yesterday’s highs, then reversed again to the downside, after the FOMC minutes, to take out today’s low. Quite a roller-coaster ride! In the meantime from the recent SPX 2085 high we have three down to 2043, a rally to 2072, and now three more down to 2034. Quite choppy. But that has been the characteristic of the downtrends of late. With the break below SPX 2039 today, downward selling pressure is now underway. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from nearly overbought to barely oversold, where it ended the day. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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298 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. Sandra Dons says:

    Where’s thursday update?

  2. jobjas says:

    SPX long term and short term count
    expecting oil to top around 50-52 before going to 20s AND expecting spx to go down with that

  3. lunker1 says:


    var bfcParams = ‘Symbol=SP-500,TimeFrame=1-Day,NumberOfBars=53,WebChartID=e3475a52-ab3f-4ee0-85d2-0faefb31b617’;var bfcWidth = ‘300’;var bfcHeight = ‘250’;

  4. rd3777 says:

    You have to be brave to buy the market here…pull the chain and flush…the last 30 minutes?

    • rd3777 says:

      The late toppers did 1 of 3 down and are completing wave 2 up now…I think most will see now into the close. Tomorrow should be interesting!

    • Scott C says:

      this pivot action is starting to suck – bears need 11,000 tries to finally crack one then get ready for another 10000 times for 2019 pivot.

      • rd3777 says:

        When the Fed has unlimited money to piss away on manipulating markets….you get bullshit days….this was clearly one….

        • Scott C says:

          Yep… maybe a flush occurs overnight. But my “maybe” thoughts are never 🙂

          • rd3777 says:

            I think it all depends on crude….today could have been a wave 2 in oil if so then we gap down tomorrow. If crude makes another high and stays up then Expiration will be spared.

  5. blackjak100 says:

    surprised at magnitude of bounce considering NYAD still down a solid -1300ish

  6. blackjak100 says:

    after all this we are nearly flat on the week.

  7. stmro says:

    It’s going to end flat isn’t it.

  8. Jack Sparrow says:

    the move up is clean 5 wave – question is if this is A or 1

  9. Craig Bland says:

    Gold down almost another $20 today and the gold stocks are up. The only reason is tomorrow is opex. Today is a Huge gift to short gold stocks. The US dollar is obviously going higher on the rate hike coming. Take a look and do your own research, but today is a big gift IMHO.

  10. kvilia says:

    Out for the day – stopped out UVXY for a 13% profit. While waiting for the big down, trading what’s out there.

  11. lunker1 says:

    see a complex h&s with two upsloping necklines.
    2026 forms the bottom neckline.
    2nd rs target is 2057-72.
    close below 2036 opens up 1980

    • 123 abc says:

      lunker1 : Have you got a quick chart? Grappling to see that, any clarity appreciated.

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    so will there be another stick save and close above the 2040 pivot or will it now act as resistance?? Thoughts?

  13. lunker1 says:

    what up peeps?
    watching for strike 2 and 3.

    lunker1 says:
    April 20, 2016 at 11:36 pm
    to strike out the bulls close below these.
    1. 2079 open
    2. 2042 close
    3. 2036 close

  14. phil1247 says:

    es short squeeze brewing

  15. ES just made a perfect bounce, lets see if it can turn around and break the channel.

  16. Jack Sparrow says:

    inverse hs formed on sp for 10?15 points lets see

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Well, so far the decline has been very orderly. Fear has perked-up a bit and we’re getting oversold short-term, but we certainly haven’t seen anything that resembles a disorderly selloff or capitulation.

    Would expect LL’s ahead, either later today or tomorrow. I’d like to see that flush lower to strike fear into the bulls and run the long stops.

  18. Holly Silver says:

    The last possible leg down should be today. There should never be a low breaching the February lows before we reach all time highs. I missed the pattern badly when declared 2 days ago and yesterday as possible lows. We are in a new rally leg that will last over 12 months.

    I will come back when 2100 is breached. Most will assume the last topping pattern and be anxious to bet the bear again. they will be mistaken.

  19. went flat again…small profit, seems like support is here. I’ll probably be wrong…lol

  20. Dex T says:

    DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees ‘some rebellion’ from Fed hawks

    “In a separate interview with Reuters, Gundlach noted that the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index has been around 2,050 for some time. “It’s tough to get much of a rally off of price-to-earnings this high with earnings falling and the Fed itching to tighten with GDP growth already projected to decline,” he said.

    “I’m sticking with my ‘2 percent upside and 20 downside’ prediction on U.S. stocks…. it’s working, I can see it going to 1,600,” Gundlach added, referring to the S&P Index.

    Gundlach, on the webcast, said negative interest rates implemented by some major central banks, notably in Japan, are backfiring. Currencies strengthen and stock markets weaken on such moves, he said.”

    • Dex T says:

      More info including Gundlach’s views on the Presidential elections

      The interview confirms the points MateoMateo made when he spoke with Gundlach some weeks back.

  21. Here is the Eight Fold Path Methodology applied to the Minor C wave of the downward correction. As always, A,B,C, and 1,2,3 are equivalent until they are not. Minute iii ‘should’ come in at 2020. Because there are just now in excess of 168 candles on this chart, we anticipate moving the to 30-minute chart to finish the wave.

    SPX - Intraday - May-19 1233 PM (15 min)


  22. bud67 says:

    Suggest – OKE – as a trade, or investment, to look at…..end

  23. Igor says:

  24. phil1247 says:


    new bearish below …..

    above there ignites possible short squeeze

  25. Jack Sparrow says:

    did we just hit an interim bottom. mini rally om horizon?

  26. captbara says:

    Intraday NYMO already under BB. VIX and SPX probably closing outside of BBs too.

  27. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WS3 @ 201.73 ~ MR2 @ 201.97
    GL & Good Weekend All

  28. purplember says:

    tony, did you get downtrend confirmation on SPX ??

Comments are closed.