SHORT TERM: gap up opening then roller coaster, DOW +9
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower, rallied, then lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 294K v 274K, and Export (+0.5% v +0.3%)/Import (+0.1% v -0.1%) prices were reported higher. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 2072, hit 2074, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 2064 yesterday. Around noon the market had dropped to SPX 2053, and then started to rally. The rally lasted until 3pm when the SPX hot 2071. Then the market pulled back into the close to end nearly unchanged on the day.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds lost 9 ticks, Crude rose 25 cents, Gold fell $10, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the PPI and Retail sales at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and Business inventories at 10am.
The market gapped up at the open for the second time this week. But unlike Tuesday the market closed the gap about one hour after the open and then headed lower. After hitting SPX 2053 the market reversed course again, and attempted to rally back to the highs of the day. We noted yesterday. The market could drop below SPX 2064 and then rally back to 2085. That drop happened today and that rally is still possible. We also noted. SPX 2085 could have ended wave ii/b and wave iii/c lower could now be underway as well. Take your pick. Either way we can now see two waves down from Tuesday’s SPX 2085 high: 2053-2071 so far. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning and then bounced to neutral. Trade what is in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable
LONG TERM: bear market