SHORT TERM: another decline underway, DOW -217
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.4% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 4 points below yesterday’s SPX 2084 close. By 10am the SPX had dipped down to 2075. Then after a rally to SPX 2083 by 10:30 the market headed even lower. At 2pm the Treasury reported another surplus: $106.5B v $156.7B. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2064, and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.10%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.10%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.40, Gold rose $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Export/Import prices at 8:30.
The market opened lower after yesterday’s gap up rally, pulled back to SPX 2075, bounced to 2083, then dropped to 2064 in the afternoon. While we can not rule out another rally to the 2085 pivot range, today’s decline is sufficient to start what we will be labeling Int. iii/c of the downtrend. Int. i/a completing at SPX 2039 and Int. ii/b completing at SPX 2085. Short term support drops back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from quite overbought yesterday to oversold today. Trade what’s in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable
LONG TERM: bear market