Monday update

SHORT TERM: market starts the week mixed, DOW -35

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.9%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened unchanged at SPX 2057. Right after the open the market rallied to SPX 2064 by 10am, then pulled back to 2054 by 11:30. After that the market worked its way higher for the rest of the day hitting SPX 2064 again at 3pm, then pulled back to end the day at 2059.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.30%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude dropped $1.25, Gold fell $25, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market opened unchanged to start the week, rallied to 2064, pulled back to 2054, rallied back to 2064, then ended the day at 2059. The tech stock rally helped the cyclical stocks today. China, btw, has dropped nearly 5.5% in the past two days. Thus far the rally from Friday’s SPX 2039 low has travelled 25 points, which is about inline with the previous two rallies (21 pts and 31 pts) during this decline. Also at today’s late SPX 2064 high short term momentum displayed a negative divergence. Still expecting the market to visit the 2019 pivot soon. Short term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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188 Responses to Monday update

  1. Sandra Dons says:

    Mmmmh…not a good shot for bears today…

  2. vivelaamo says:

    Looks like my trend high by end of week and ATH by end of May still in play. Sometimes you gotta stick to what you believe and ignore all the noise around you!!

    • NEWBIE says:

      Market will go up forever, we are not in a bubble, everything is fine, your stops will save you, our currency and military is so strong the rest of the world is so proud of us, our debt means nothing, our embarrassing gdp means nothing and our ability to provide low paying part time job is strong., you are all going to be millionaires!!

  3. phil1247 says:


    took profits 65.59

  4. 2160 minimum to end wave 1 of PV, but could always extend.

  5. hohoho598 says:

    Hohoho, santa is here early, which of you were good little children and got some presents?

  6. You see… you have been looking up, you have to remember that the universe is expanding, that we want to be happy, that waves 5s exists also.

  7. Holly Silver says:

    Pushing my bet one more day. The signature moves of this sort usually have a 2 day sharp rally. I don’t see any specific retrace Fibonacci number that would fit in with the assumption it has ended. My guess is we should exceed 2091 tomorrow. Perhaps I am overly optimistic since I am carrying a bet. The 2 day shallow bottoming at around 2040 is the springboard for this current rebound. Suspect a good number of short sellers gave up when the 2040 failed to break. Way too many people saw the same thing develop and it becomes a big springboard or cascading drop depending on how 2040 held up.

    Still need to see all time highs to feel comfortable with the Macro view that we are still in a secular bull run.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Sold at end of day. Decided to take a 4X profit instead of pushing out one more day. I still do believe tomorrow will be another big up day but decided to be cautious here.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Well done Holly – I always sell early…x

        • Holly Silver says:

          Truth be told I almost always push it to the limit. My head is still conflicted on where we are in this 7 year move. If we have already turned last year the moves going forward can be sharp and fierce. Had I the strong conviction we are solidly in a bull camp I would have let it ride till late tomorrow. In the past during big trend moves I made a bundle. I am inclined to be a pessimist despite my arguing the merits of a continued bull market. I always look over my shoulder betting the upside. On the downside I bet with abandon. My best ever money making winning streak was 5 bets on a steep well defined wave structure going down. I started with 5K and rolled my winnings over and caught every single turn, 3 down and 2 up. Made over 275K. I am a steak player and sometimes is locked into the market behavior. It has proven well for me but the streak is decidedly leaning towards the down moves at a 2 to 1 win ratio between the two. In the last 2 years I basically broke even. This churn and psychotic market mood is killing me. Shouldn’t really complain since I could have done badly. My streak play kept me in the game even during those 2 years. My impatience gets the better of me and I sometimes force a bet.

          I am glad I saw this move coming. Still give 2135 intra-day as better than even money it hits on this run.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    If this is a B wave, this SHOULD be a false breakout. Needs to reverse back into the channel by tomorrow AM.

  9. fotis2 says:

    CL confirmed a DT on the hourly chart lets see what happens on the trendline could turn down quickly

  10. EL MATADOR says:

    Hope you kids have been buying your soft commodities …… CB are desperate for inflation …. well WS is about to give the CB’s a real taste of inflation

    • The fuel for commodity inflation will be traders fleeing equities in desperation for hard assets. You’ve got one good shot across the bow already, as seen here:

    • EL MATADOR says:

      I recommend Lean Hog back in Nov 2015 when it was trading in low 50’s, now trading in 80’s

      Recommended live/feeder cattle on May 2nd … both up 6% since.
      Also recommended Oats while has pullback but rallied hard today so added to my draw down.

      Me plan to added other softies soon, but i guess many are not interested here.

  11. micky says:

    Allrighty, good to see 80, bank most and leave a bit long…

  12. fishonhook says:

    Tony we just went over your small b
    New labelling needed?

  13. See you at 2160… our Friday chart

    Primary 5 so obvious, not sure why people are looking for some C wave here… crazy

    • blackjak100 says:

      Because wave 4 took way too long for a ZZ relative to wave 2 flat. ZZ are suppose to fast and sharp. This was anything but that. It does not have right look, but it doesn’t mean your count is impossible. S&P trying to break out of 60 min channel now. If it holds tomorrow than its probably legit and not false.

    • Its neither one. I’m not going to waste my time explaining however.

    • fionamargaret says:

      ..we said 2185 weeks before you…..but we don’t mind you joining….because you do pretty charts…

  14. captbara says:

    Crude oil HnS fake out theory proving itself today, as I thought.

    Market is at an interesting crossroads here. Maybe USD, oil, and equities go up together, and yen resumes sinking.

  15. beginner101 says:

    To TraderJoe, did you mention that if wave C exceeds wave A, then it’s likely a wave 3 and not a wave C? thanks

  16. NEWBIE says:

    That’s all you bullies are gonna get…. now comes the drop to 1975. Be on your toes because this one is gonna be a brutal down wave.

  17. fishonhook says:

    remember it’s a bear market

  18. avkanoi says:

    Also why are u.s. Markets so Non correlated with China markets. A dip of 5.50% in two days, and Dow n S&p just won’t care!

    • Because its all propped by the ESF and PPT.

    • stmro says:

      Chinese equities are pretty insignificant by market cap and follow different dynamics to western markets.

      The real question is why US markets are so non-correlated with European markets and I think the answer there is that the US is actually considered a she haven for funds and insurers that are contractually obliged to have an equity position. If you must have a certain percentage of your AuM in equities, the most attractive place is the US.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    SPY gap closed from 5/2 at 207.97

  20. avkanoi says:

    We have been Expecting a down trend for so long….. And I don’t think we have fallen 200 Dow points in a single day…. Last 2 months…. Even the Vix has broken previous lows!

    • that’s because markets are going higher. resistance at 2080, Nah, same movie, watch Lucy pull the ball from Charlie Brown and him fall flat on his face, just like the bears. happens all the time. if there is a bear option or a Bull option. take the Bull option. Up up and away in my beautiful baloon

  21. phil1247 says:


    raised stops
    unfortunately ext long target is about to be hit at 2077 and is also .618 resistance from high

    just holding long upro from this am…… no additions

  22. Jimmy Porter says:

    I’m impressed…Bud has held his ground. No posts in several days. I bet he still gets on all the time though.

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