weekend update


The week started out at SPX 2065. After a higher open and rally to SPX 2083 on Monday the market sold off for the rest of the week. Aided by two gap down openings the market hit SPX 2039 on Friday. Then it rallied to end the week at SPX 2057. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.55%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, the ADP, monthly Payrolls, Q2 GDP est., and weekly jobless claims increased. On the uptick: construction spending, factory orders, ISM services, consumer credit, long term investor sentiment, and the trade deficit narrowed. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the PPI, Retail sales, and Business/Wholesale inventories.

LONG TERM: bear market

We continue to label all the activity from late 2015 as the early stages of a new bear market. The five Primary waves expected to complete the Cycle [1] bull market ended in 2015. Primary waves I and II concluded in 2011, and Primary waves III, IV and V concluded in 2015. The first downtrend of the bear market bottomed in mid-February 2016 after a 15% decline. The first uptrend of the bear market appears to have ended at SPX 2111 in mid-April. We have labeled the first downtrend as Major wave A, and the recent uptrend as Major wave B. Major wave C of Primary A should now be underway.


Last weekend we presented the daily/weekly charts of the NDX. We believe this index is more indicative of the actual state of the stock market, since it does not have any energy/commodity stocks. Both of which have rebounded strongly with the decline in the USD, and expectations of a manufacturing rebound in China. Thus far the China rebound has yet to materialize, as manufacturing PMI was reported this week lower at 50.1. The NDX made a lower low this week for its confirmed downtrend. Then rebounded on Friday to lose only 0.3% on the week. The NAZ also confirmed a downtrend.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable

This week we posted a tentative green Major wave B label at SPX 2111. The SPX, and the DOW for that matter, have yet to confirm their downtrends. For the two month uptrend, Mid-February to mid-April, we counted 11 significant waves, which is a corrective pattern. These eleven waves all unfolded within a three Intermediate wave ABC structure. Five overlapping waves for Int. A and five overlapping waves for Int. C.


The negative RSI/MACD divergences that appeared on the NDX/NAZ charts before they declined to confirm downtrends also appear on the SPX/DOW charts. As noted above. After the SPX 2111 uptrend high the market has declined for 2+ weeks, has had its biggest decline since the uptrend began, and the RSI hit oversold for the first time since the last correction. Certainly enough negatives to suggest lower prices are yet ahead. Medium term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance a the 2070 and 2085 pivots.


Since Major wave A declined in five Intermediate waves, even though each of the three declining waves actually looked corrective internally. We expected Major wave C would start off looking impulsive. It has not. This first decline, probably Int. i also looks corrective internally. Odd looking patterns, but not all that unusual for a bear market.


During the 100+ point decline of Int. i/Major A we counted seven overlapping internal waves. Thus far, during this decline, we have counted six overlapping waves: 2079-2099-2052-2083-2039-2058? This suggests the market should experience one more decline, probably to the 2019 pivot range, before a substantial Int. ii rally gets underway. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum rose to overbought on Friday after a positive divergence. Trade what’s in front of you!


Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a 1.9% loss.

European markets were also mostly lower for a 1.9% loss.

The Commodity Equity markets were all lower for a 3.4% loss.

The DJ World index lost 2.0% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.50% on the week.

Crude is still uptrending but lost 3.1% on the week.

Gold is still uptrending too and lost 0.1% on the week.

The USD is trying to uptrend and gained 0.9% on the week.


Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: the Treasury deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, and Import/Export prices. Friday: the PPI, Retail sales and Consumer sentiment. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp


About tony caldaro

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303 Responses to weekend update

  1. ipman1893 says:

    Hello Tony, first thank you for your updates, I have been gaining so much in the past few years reading your site. = )

    I am looking at the HSI chart right now, it has been running a irregular ABC pattern and we are currently in Primary C.
    I am wondering is it a must that C will exceed A during an irregular abc pattern?
    which means it will drop below 16170?

    Thank you again.

  2. ajaysinghi says:


    Please provide an update on your analysis.



  3. Here is where I think we are in the three waves to the minor B, top. We have made minute waves a, up, circle a, up, then sub-minuet waves a,b,c down in a three-wave sequence down to minuet wave (a), down, then minuet wave (b), up to an equal high, and likely make minuet (c) down to minute b (circle b) down, to be followed by minute c (circle c), up, to minor B. Minor B up would be followed by a larger minor C down.

    SPX - Five Minute - May-09 1540 PM (5 min)


  4. avkanoi says:

    Confidence and patience of most shorters continues to be tested. Really difficult markets both ways!

  5. rd3777 says:

    Getting pretty late here…….

  6. fotis2 says:

    Bumping on 38.2 retrace.

  7. vivelaamo says:

    the right shoulder forming perfectly. It’s text book. CHOP CHOP CHOP DROP!!!!

  8. As said earlier. 5th up, c’est parti :)) Cheers all

  9. Page says:

    Near term targets:
    SPX 2100-2090
    UVXY below $10 – TVIX around $2
    NUGT low $70s
    UWTI around $22

    • fionamargaret says:

      …think we might test down to around 2055..seems to be a magnet there….

  10. Dex T says:

    87% of S&P 500 reported earnings – earnings decline is -7.1%.

    The first quarter marks the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009.

  11. phil1247 says:


    i just looked up what trump said about asking bondholders to take a haircut if debt got out of control

    dont you think the bond market would have adjusted long before to the threat??

    the wave structure of bonds implies the top is in or possibly one more new high

    ergo…..its late in the game and thats why i continue to sell bonds into any rally

  12. purplember says:

    anyone have an Oil chart ? did it top already ?

  13. fishonhook says:

    Suggestions to Ab and TJ and anyone else who posts their opinions.

    Keep doing it .
    they are very welcome.
    I have posted mine many times. Including ,ost recently my opinion on AAPL

    if you want uncritical love, go see your mama. This is the rough and tumble internet, deal with it, and the best way to get folks upset is to start of a post with “As I said and am now 100% right…” especially when you post contradictory opinions so you can never be wrong.

    • phil1247 says:


      do you have anything of value to add here
      or are you just antagonizing people
      because you have blown up your account
      and are unable to trade any more?

      • fishonhook says:

        On the contrary I just have a low tolerance for BS.

        • vivelaamo says:

          You must love me then 😂

        • If you are fed up with BS, then why do you post so much of it? Look, let’s be “rough and tumble” realistic, okay? Can the stock market ‘not’ go both up & down in the same day? Can a stock or commodity market not just go “sideways” for a while, instead of your required “up or down”?. You don’t get it – what I said on Friday : “pop & drop” was entirely consistent with “longer run headwinds from the dollar” posted on the weekend. There is no inconsistency except one you are making by taking snippets that ‘you choose’ out of context. My Friday S&P chart and my weekend S&P chart clearly shows A, down, B up, as my preferred count How much more clear can it get than that? Yes, it shows alt: 1, 2 as something that I don’t ‘expect’ to happen, but I am just monitoring for. In other words, I’m prepared for if it happens (but it will likely cost me some bucks). If you are looking for a ‘guru’ instead of learning how to count so you can trust your wave counts the large percentage of the time, in my humble opinion, you will never feel the self-reliance that a skill can provide.

  14. H D says:

    Range 2,054.31 – 2,064.15 10 HanDles from 10AM, any questions? BOTs

    and u think the letters and numbers in EW are predictive.

  15. locanbbs says:

    Just put my short in on SPX. Goin’ to sit it out now till they finally give up….

  16. phil1247 says:


    do you know who seinfeld is ??

    i realize you are in greece

    • phil1247 says:

      and YOU want to be my LATEX salesman?????????

      when you said you bot crude at the low
      i was asking if you were a comedian? ( seinfeld) i guess you got the joke eh?????

      • fionamargaret says:

        I think Fotis did buy crude at the low Phil – we discussed buying around 26….

  17. mjtplayer says:

    VIX BB getting tight again, just 368bps band width. VIX trading just over 15 with a neutral RSI at 50. A coiled spring…

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Hopefully!! Did not think it would dip below 16 and loaded the boat there. Needless to say, I am down a few pennies. Dollar cost avg UVXY 23. TRAPPED in the trade.

  18. Holly Silver says:

    Waiting for GODOT. Will it stay or will it go? 2040 or BUST! With the huge short interest and extremely negative comments why isn’t the market pounding away at such a vulnerable area? Is this the ALAMO? Good effort but in the end all died? Thought we would have the answer already.

    Perhaps by close?

  19. phil1247 says:


    GOLD at crucial support at 1265

    failure sends it down to 1208

    STILL want to see 1190 tested to buy

  20. H D says:

    “First of all, you never have to default because you print the money.” Basically saying there is no debt. Our real estate idiot savante ready to really stir things up.

    • phil1247 says:

      he is correct

      the debt will go to 20 30 40 trillion

      eventually if enough money is printed (digitally) the dollar will collapse…….and yellin will get the inflation that she desires… except now she will have to raise rates like crazy to try to stop the dollar collapse….so … be careful what you wish for janet

      • phil1247 says:


        the market will raise rates like crazy and janet will follow

        the fed follows and does not lead the rate rise

    • rd3777 says:

      These idiots no absolutely nothing! You can’t force people 2 borrow money…Japan is finding that out…..we R scroomed….the the insanity will continue for a few more days and then the gates of hell will open….lol!

  21. rd3777 says:

    Well the Bulls or Algo’s or Fed continue to play russian roulette here…but this will end badly once everyone awakes from the dream.

  22. We do have the clear “pop & drop” predicted on Friday, and a full five waves up in perfect form. The perfect form is a) each significant numbered wave is on the alternate side of the EMS-34, and b) there is good alternation with a ‘sharp’ for (2), and a flat for (4), in which (4) does not overlap (2) or (1).

    If the lows of 2039 hold, it should give the bears pause, temporarily, as “five waves up” is ‘usually’ followed by another “five waves up” after three waves down. (This is not trading or investment advice).

    SPX - Five Minute - May-09 1048 AM (5 min)


    • phil1247 says:

      alternate side of the EMS-34, and b) there is good alternation with a ‘sharp’ for (2), and a flat for (4), in which (4) does not overlap (2) or (1).

      If the lows of 2039 hold, it should give the bears pause


      the bears should watch the E M S – 34

      or they will be needing EMS ( emergency medical services )

      waddaya think JOE???????

    • fishonhook says:

      “as predicted on Friday”

      Didn’t you also say the falling wedge in the USD would put pressure of the market. Now you say you forecast the pop. Which is it.
      Why can’t you wave counters stick to one game plan and then change it when it fails instead of obfuscating so much no one know hat you said

      • foh .. you are mixing the very short term (5-min) time frame versus the much more long term weekly time frame of the US Dollar Index. It is suggested that instead of being critical of others (i.e. just ‘spamming’ them) you focus on integrating more complete market picture for yourself.

        • fishonhook says:

          Sorry. We should just accept your posts and ‘as I said’ without critique.
          Even Tony doesn’t get a free pass . Nor do I BTW. I have often posted on where I went wrong got stopped out. ETC. If you want to be critiqued less, wait for others to praise your work, when they can actually benefit it IMVHO.

          • Stop spamming me. It is against the policy of this site. You are not saying anything logical or anything that pertains to wave counting.

            • ABchart says:

              He did that to me for a year and a half! so now I decided to never post a chart on this blog. How can this kind of people trade? He doesn’t even make the difference between a 5 minutes and a monthly chart. Quince head!

              • fishonhook says:

                Actually AB I ignored you for a year and a half and it is only when you started your own clucking dance of victory that I had to show your errors.

    • frommi2 says:

      This impulse can also be wave C of a running correction.🙂

    • fionamargaret says:

      Thanks TJ.

  23. Gaps on $XJY being filled and created.CBs making threats are like Fed heads making threats.Personally don’t believe it.Still,it’s good for some pullback…which is all they want–to slow the dollar decline and keep the yen from going through 105 immediately.Pick some areas that you want to add to–GDX COULD go to 20 if XJY wants to go to 90.I ll buy more there for sure–otherwiae holding.Good luck all.

    • Hourly MACD on the 10d GDX recrossed back down.First time it did that(when it shouldn’t have)since I’ve been looking at it.Either it whipsaws here,or by not going to 27 like it COULD have ,is worth being cautious.Good luck all.

  24. torehund says:

    $Btk, looks like a lift-off🙂

  25. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ Deep Single Wave 2?
    Then Goodbye Bull. All Speculation, Trade Safe.😉
    GL All


    • Scott C says:

      From his write-up i was thinking he is looking for a move to the 2019 pivot first for a 1. Hopefully the lower end of 2070 is going to hold and we get that drop — and we are in a micro pullback?

    • floyd drummer says:

      thanks for the chart, GT,

      ..nice to see you posting charts again.

  26. captbara says:

    HnS on crude now. Had a feeling that was going to be the setup with last week’s spike.

  27. fishonhook says:

    Looks like Tony’s short term count is not working out. My faith in the long term count is being tested too

    “This suggests the market should experience one more decline, probably to the 2019 pivot range”

  28. cj32 says:

    GOLD,USD from CBZ

    coolbizone • 3 days ago
    $USD… had a massive Bullish Hammer on Tuesday & a nice follow through yesterday… Counting today near Three White Soldiers, nice if it closes in green tomorrow…
    “Will put pressure on $GOLD and $CL for sideways to downward corrections?”

  29. Bob Sagget says:

    This is a few weeks old but I find the “Freudian Slip” interesting.

    Ex Fed chairman RIchard Fisher


    At 1:22 he actually uses the word manipulate.

  30. Here is a link to an updated post on my blog .. for those looking for somewhat more complete explanations and rationale behind the current view.



  31. blackjak100 says:

  32. The market needed to break down here i.m.o. Reckon this is a big nail in the coffin. Nikkei reversed at a key point as well, Yen weakening. Very strong reversals in Europe. As much as I’ve liked to see a downtrend I think it is going to grind higher. Much higher.


  33. magnus1234 says:

    DAX30 continues in P5 even though the recent wave 2 was little to “deep” for my taste.


  34. fotis2 says:

    Unfortunately Red Adair not round anymore he woulda put that oil fire out chopchop..

  35. fishonhook says:

    While I hope Tony’s count is right an he has managed to pin the B in the right place this time. Stats like the is worry me and test my faith


  36. zvyezda says:

    Additional rigging planned. He was even mouthing off today:

    Fed may need more powers to support securities firms during crises: Dudley


  37. H D says:

    Thanks Tony, new moon low, possible LL this week before May Opex. Seems strange that with only one version of OEW there are so many people struggling with interpreting the 5 other versions of elliot waves. Tuff crowd. It’s right in front of them.

  38. joecthetruthteller says:

    Upcoming Dates to Watch for 17 Securities – BRADLEY

  39. vivelaamo says:

    Oil is going to keep this market up it seems.

  40. Jack Sparrow says:

    i am coming to a conclusion that this blog could be a contrarian indicator…the saudi news is being taken by market positively – in last few months I have never seen oil made such a big move up at the open as it did just now..lets see what happens till morning does it give back it gains or goes up…..

  41. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    thanks for a nice post. Canadian fire has made WTIC shoot up again. Hope Spx does not follow.

  42. vivelaamo says:

    I wish people would stop posting zero hedge links. Following that site is the single fastest way to bankruptcy.

    • You are quite mistaken. Drinking the Kool-Aid is.

    • K-Tastic says:

      Why the disdain towards Zerohedge? Like any news source, you have to take the bad with the good.

      • Bob Sagget says:

        K-Tastic – agree. It takes a discerning eye, not possessed by all, to sift through the morass of content on ZH for the nuggets of intelligence and in some cases free high/quality content derived from other sources and re-purposed on the ZH blog. For someone to categorize the entire ZH presence as a path to bankruptcy is “Interesting.”😉

        • K-Tastic says:

          Agreed. I find this blog’s comment section interesting. I’m in the investment management industry and happen to be surrounded by some of the smartest people in the world and some of the best portfolio managers in the world. At the same time, these PMs and analysts have scars from trades that went the wrong way and as a result they are humbler. This board, on the other hand, at least some have never made a bad trade and have never been wrong. This market humbles us all.

          • ewtoriginal says:

            Those who dismiss ZH postings wholesale miss some valuable insights. Disregard the comments section and that sentiment. But ZH adds value. If you dont think so, you were probably stunned to learn that Russian athletes have been doping forever with state sponsorship. Absurd to think otherwise and you needed proof. Dismiss ZH out of hand and you will be stunned when the fundamental deterioration actually takes it toll on markets. Stunning.

      • vivelaamo says:

        Because he has been posting bearish articles non stop for the entire duration of the bull market. It is a very dangerous site.

  43. vivelaamo says:

    2019 before we see the rockets which will blow socks off!!!

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