Thursday update

SHORT TERM: choppy day, DOW +9

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 274K v 257K. The market opened 5 points above yesterday’s SPX 2051 close and continued to rally to 2060 by 10:30. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2046, yesterday’s low, by 1:30. After that the market works its way higher to close just about unchanged.

For the day the SPX/DOW ended mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.10%. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude added 55 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market opened higher today, rallied to SPX 2060 above yesterday’s high, but then pulled back to yesterday’s low at 2046. All in all a choppy day ahead of monthly Payrolls tomorrow. Coming into Tuesday it looked like the market had declined from the SPX 2111 high in four overlapping waves: 2081-2099-2052-2083. This suggested a potentially strong third wave would be next. Yet, after gap down openings on Tuesday/Wednesday all we have seen is a lot of choppy action. In the mean time the Tech sector continues to decline. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day just above oversold. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend probable

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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250 Responses to Thursday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    Continues to trade in a downward channel. Will it prove to be a bull flag and break to the upside or will it hit the top of the flag in continue down. Next week should reveal all. My money is on further downside. Watch it shoot up like a rocket to ATH now! Have a good weekend all.

  2. Holly Silver says:

    Bought 100 SPY 209 Calls May 13th @ .18
    Bought 100 SPY 209.5 Calls May 13th @ .12

    Safer bet would have been to hedge with a straddle. Not my style. Shooting for a big gain but could very well end up losing most of it.

  3. LBSPYtrader says:

    I am short from SPY 209 and 206.9

    • fotis2 says:

      And me SPX 2111 as well as long crude at 26.39

      • phil1247 says:

        is your name fotis or seinfeld???

        do you know who seinfeld is????

        • fotis2 says:

          hahahah just joking would I be here if I was long 26.39? crude I’d be that dude with the porche and private jet and the wineyard in France.

  4. simpleiam says:

    2060 was HWB, which struck yesterday. Could have a change of trend here. Don’t know. Whatever it is, GL!

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Good news for bears – this is the third time now since 2111 that the S&P went into overbought territory on the hourly and price was lower. Since 1810 the reverse was true until it hit 2111

    to me that is one of the most significant tells

    • ABchart says:

      Look at the hourly chart from 1 to 15 April

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        eh ………..technically you are correct but barely. If anything RSI was overbought like 13 out of 14 times with price higher and now three in a row with price is lower – still very significant

  6. LBSPYtrader says:

    Anybody seen Bud?

  7. Here is a further update, with a revised channel around the upward wave. One ‘should’ see alternation between waves (2) & (4). Since wave (2) is a zigzag .. i.e. a ‘sharp’, then wave (4) ‘should’ be a flat, with an equal or higher B wave. The B wave ‘is’ currently higher. And the EMA-34 is ‘high enough’ that a downward wave could cross the EMA-34 (to be a ‘countable’ wave), and, yet, not overlap wave (1), up.

    SPX - Five Minute - May-06 1517 PM (5 min)


  8. phil1247 says:


    SPX close 2048.5

    how bout u ??????

  9. TMF says:

    Bitcoin looks amazing ! going to test the highs this weekend ! over 470 then 500 !

  10. beginner101 says:

    anyone seeing 5 waves up on the 5-min chart from the lows?

  11. NEWBIE says:

    I do enjoy when a lot of you guys are getting bullish going into a weekend seeking a market rally, even though the market has not made a new high in over a year and the world is falling apart. Bubbalicious!

  12. simpleiam says:

    YO! Check this out. Yesterday, TRIN was quite high1.18, and an ~20% Buy signal. Now TRIN has fallen to 0.88 and a 48% Sell being given. Hmm.$TRIN

  13. rd3777 says:

    Getting sick of the 1,2’s either @#$* or get off the pot!….lol…

  14. ABchart says:

    ES/FDAX/FCE: I am out from 2/3 of my long positions. Will see Monday.

  15. Here’s the updated chart. Third wave up (3) has broken the base channel, and with a higher EWO. Notice how the last wave of the triple zigzag “pulled away” from the lower parallel, instead of heading down to touch it. That is a sign of “strength”, not a sign of weakness.

    SPX - Five Minute - May-06 1412 PM (5 min)


  16. mjtplayer says:

    Would like to see the SPY top-out around 207 – 208 and the VIX bottom around the 14 area during this bounce.

  17. Page says:

    Prepare for massive rally till Option Expiration.

  18. Jimmy Porter says:

    I got a warm and fuzzy feeling this correction has ended

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Are you sure it is a “correction”? You expecting the prior trend to continue?

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Now if you ask me there are a couple of gap above that need some filling from here at minimum we get get one filled the second one is debatable but probable.

        Keep eye on daily candle it’s hinting at ST trend reversal.

      • Jimmy Porter says:

        yeah. I also disagree with TJ. I think this was wave 4. Although he could be right. It doesn’t really matter to me with the labeling. The NAS held very important area today. I will be playing NQ a lot now. I have a feeling if this was the low it is going to explode. Bigger average gains than than es and ym. Key area for nas is to break and hold above 4456

        • EL MATADOR says:

          ES is most liquid and best bang for your $. only time i use the others is when i believe they will outperform the ES otherwise not worth it.

          The 4th wave as you mention is probable from an EW perspective but me no think that is the road map Mr M is planning to hike on. There are a lot of buyers above 2116 waiting to sell and a lot of BTD’ers want to buy between 2019-2043 zone …… Me think Mr M is gonna leave both of those holding the baggage …. just my 2c because that is all i have left in my pocket

          • fotis2 says:

            hahaha hey Mat I’ll give you mucho drachma for those cents in couple months…

          • simpleiam says:

            Since we’re all guessing here, I think gto has the right chart. Up to 2080ish, maybe even 2100, then right back down.

            Have a great weekend All!

        • fionamargaret says:

          Well Jimmy it turned around at 2040….so now I have to believe my other number.. 2185.

    • captbara says:

      I doubt there will be big up today. In that case it will be better to close at the lows for bulls.

  19. lbhkinqa says:

    Is the +ve divergence on the S&P worth a note on the chart Tony?

  20. phil1247 says:


    triangle ready to pop

    which way????

  21. Peter Sliney says:

    Today is one of those days where my account is in the plus. I’ll walk away till Sunday night. A lot of thrashing but no direction. Thank you Tony for the week.

  22. Jim Guthery says:

    Tony, trying stay on the same page as you with your waves – 2034 still the confirmed number to break?

    • tony caldaro says:

      that was the original comment … yes Jim

    • Holly Silver says:

      I am anxiously looking for that to pop. My critical target as well. I believe if we do see 2135 the bull run has years to go. that’s how critical I see it. Today we should clearly see a breakdown if that is in the cards. Looks way to orderly and defined off a big retrace from February. In fact it doesn’t seen to violate anything I have seen in the past. Way too much interpretation that we already saw a top and anything after should resemble a breakdown from that top. I think this 18 month churn was the correction. if so we should see a fast move up followed by one more decent drop. After that its all up.

      I am of course predicating all this on the assumption we hold today and rally hard and fast. Even that doesn’t clear the hurdle for this to be an extended bull run. I need intra-day moves over the 2135 mark. that will give me confidence for my macro view.

      If we hold well near close I buy SPY calls for next week expiration.

  23. Here’s what I have so far, using the Eight Fold Path Methodology for the ‘c’ wave of Z. I have covered that technique numerous times on here. Note that wave iii of (iii) is on the low point of the Elliott Wave Oscillator. We only need to make allowance now, that wave (iv) ‘could’ be a triangle to be next to the last wave lower. The count also shows good ‘form & balance’ since each of the larger numbered waves is on an opposite side of the EMA-34.

    SPX - Five Minute - May-06 1221 PM (5 min)


    • the way .. this ‘potential’ fourth wave triangle (iv) is another crystal clear example of “The Fourth Wave Conundrum” .. out of all the possibility for the fourth waves (flats, zigzags, triangles, flat-x-zigzag, double-three, triple-three, or the start of an ending contracting diagonal), it makes prediction very, very difficult towards the end of the wave. This all also has to be ‘separated out’ from the fact that the fifth wave (v) .. ‘may’ have already ended. This ‘fourth wave conundrum’ happens at ‘every’ degree of trend – from five-minute charts to daily, weekly and monthly charts, as well.

    • stan502 says:

      your posts are textbook, thanks

  24. phil1247 says:


    15 min shorts and longs both broken this am

    diagnosis ……… triangle forming

  25. stmro says:

    This correction is way too choppy to be a new downtrend imo.

  26. fishonhook says:

    keep your eyes on AAPL.
    As posted before, I think a break and hold below 91-92 would strengthen the bears case

  27. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Lots of support from early April, Vix negative when markets down this morning, and triple positive divergence on the hourly. That plus the Bulls have been shown that their simplistic BTD philosophy has worked so much they are probably ready again. Green day probably but it would be awesome to go through 2040 with speed

  28. locanbbs says:

    UPDATE: DJII facing tough resistance.
    Hourly chart –

  29. NEWBIE says:

    Can all you bulls get really bullish in here so the market can drop hard?

    • I am a bull that is fearful of exactly what you are saying. lots of people made money on the slow grind up starting from 2/11 and are ready to do it all over again. If everyone has the same plan then the market does the opposite.

  30. Just heard that the Canadian wildfires are around the oilfields.Supposedly,that’s why oil is up today.One million barrels of oil potentially taken offline.I’ll pay big bucks to anyone that shows a pic of Yellen with a pack of matches in that area.(They wouldn’t go THAT far would they?).

  31. Jack Sparrow says:

    seems like rally coming in the afternoon- Fiona’s number held

  32. 123 abc says:

    If today’s high of 2052 is taken out to the upside, then this positive divergence on the hourly RSI may prove correct…

  33. sp ends up plus 1 percent today, bears stunned again

  34. 123 abc says:

    Looking quite silly, but appears like a “third, of a third, of a third, of a third”…

    • gtoptions says:

      Nice OEW counting 123 abc. This scenario would be good. Looking for a test of the SPX weekly 13ema @ 2034 or 2019 OEW Pivot. End of day flush would do it. GL

  35. why is the market not going up? seriously not even a bounce here? I was hoping to make money on a slow grind up to new highs.

  36. With the new cash low, we now have five waves down, in progress, to c of Z. What becomes critical now is the length of the downward wave. This will help us distinguish it between a the triple zigzag count, i.e. Z, or a the Leading Expanding Diagonal count, i.e. minor A. So far, within Z, we have minute a, circle a, that was a Leading diagonal, itself. And, when ‘a’ is a diagonal, then ‘c’ should ‘not’ be, and it isn’t, so far.

    SPX - Intraday - May-06 1038 AM (30 min)


    • .. just fyi, wave Z would become longer than wave Y if 2035.85 is exceeded lower on cash S&P. Also, if the triple zigzag decides to rules the day instead, Z waves have a tendency to make a minor truncation .. watch for overlaps.

  37. torehund says:

    TBT, abc down from Apr 26-20016 until yesterday, looks bottomish.

  38. Holly Silver says:

    D-Day, time of reckoning. We either break down or we hold strong for a rally ahead. Market actually got some of what it wanted to see, slower job growth. the wage component is not what they wanted. The street is mulling over the chances of future rate hikes. that’s the only thing on their mind. based on all the prior data points I say they will still raise rates 2 times this year. the street sees only one. This market has relied on zero rates and is addicted to it. If we break much below 2040 today the bear should see a further break immediately. if it holds we rally.

    The current pattern hasn’t shown in the past where it starts breaking down after the minor drop over 12 days. To me that suggests a low, not the start of a big drop.

    Finally this will get resolved IMO today.

    • Bob Sagget says:

      ” If we break much below 2040 today the bear should see a further break immediately.”

      One and done

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Less jobs higher wages less spending…….sounds like a great mix for the global economy there holly!!!!

      • Holly Silver says:

        Less jobs? really? Tight labor market expects the range to drop between 150 and 175 going forward. That’s was baked in already. no surprises. As for your comment that higher wages and less spending make for a bad combo, I have to disagree. Not just higher wages but for the last 6 months higher discretionary income. that translates to a consumer that is doing as well as could be expected in this environment. The same is true of businesses. Both have reduced spending while maintaining a good balance sheet. that translates to strong pend up demand. I have no crystal ball but odds are they both spend at a clip that exceeds anything we have seen in 2 years.

        Got to “anticipate” the next 6 months trend. It’s all a guess but the data confirms the great potential and history has been on my side almost every single time. I can’t remember when the consumer and businesses were in this good shape with free cash.

    • scf51 says:

      “talk to the hand” and I mean that in a double sense. You are day-mo-day.

    • If this correction is a 4th on a daily(WaveGenus) then I would agree but it acts more like a B

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