Thursday update

SHORT TERM: afternoon decline, DOW -211

Overnight the Asian markets dropped 1.7%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 Q1 GDP was reported lower: +0.5% v +1.4%, and weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 257K v 247K. The market opened seven points below yesterday’s SPX 2095 close, ticked down two more points to 2086, and then began to rally. By 11:30 the SPX hit 2099, and then started to pullback again. The pullback accelerated in the last two hours of trading, as the SPX hit 2072 just before a 2076 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.20%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude rose 30 cents, Gold rallied $22, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: PCE prices, Personal income/spending at 8:30, then Consumer sentiment and the Chicago PMI at 10am.

Choppy market activity finally gets resolved to the downside in its sixth day. The market opened lower, hit SPX 2086, rallied to SPX 2099, and then traded to 2072 near the close. Thus far from last week’s SPX 2111 uptrend high the decline does look a bit choppy, but we can see a potentially larger three wave pattern: 2081-2099-2072 thus far. With SPX 2074 broken to the downside, the five waves up from SPX 2034-2111 is complete. Now the uptrend/downtrend range widens to either an uptrend continuation, by breaking through 2111, or a new downtrend, by breaking below SPX 2034. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2104. Short term momentum dropped to quite oversold after the negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend under pressure

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

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382 Responses to Thursday update

  1. captbara says:

    Compq 55 MA hammer. If this is P5 then it should hold🙂

  2. Dex T says:

    Mercury retrograde gamble is working well so far. I’m still short at S&P 2098 but moved the stop up to 2097.

  3. simpleiam says:

    TRIN at .91. Not convincing either way. Toss up. I bet on upside early next week. GL All!

  4. simpleiam says:

    For those of you taking the risk of staying short over the weekend… GL!
    Remember, it’s the first few days of the new month.

  5. Dex T says:

    “Based on the 55% of companies in the S&P 500 index that had already reported results Thursday morning, Thomson Reuters expects overall earnings to decline by 6.1% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. ”

  6. blackjak100 says:

    Retest of 2052 and then blast off

  7. NEWBIE says:

    all we need to do is tag 2070 and then comes the mother of drops

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    if this closes green Ill cry lol

  9. phil1247 says:

    to squeeze or not to squeeze

    that is the question

  10. Jack Sparrow says:

    keepings things simple we just completed A, now B and then C to down then we’ll see where it goes…B will form the second shoulder, neck line is where we bounced today…connecting from 2025

    • Holly Silver says:

      So many anxious bears out there. Can anyone tell me that the core CPI figures are today? I believe it is as high as the peak in 2012? Can this be? Why we had a terrible slowdown in the last year yet the core CPI is where? Imagine what will happen when China revamps, if it does. How about the pent up demand here on our shores. both businesses and consumers are in their best financial shape in many years.

      I will bet you that 90 percent or more of novice or professionals will view the possibility of inflation pressures going forward as non existent. Me, I see a strong possibility of inflation fears hitting us within one years time.

      Food for thought.

      The market currently just made a strong stand. double bottom at 2052 and Monday is D-day. If it breaks below we should see a fast drop down and well below my assumed 2040 level. If it holds on Monday then the drop was shallow than I thought. If we hold Monday I would still place good odds for new highs in this run. Not many seem to accept this possibility. Perhaps it’s just wishful thinking.

      • simpleiam says:

        Yeah, I didn’t think you would answer my question, so assume the answer is that you’ve never been to China. I’ve never been there either, but have lots of friends who have; and they brought back pictures…

      • Dex T says:

        You make a lot of thoughts and assumptions but many are not at all backed up by facts. Entirely the opposite.

        Your opinions on China’s demographics, and debt-fueled rebound are completely wrong and have been quantified as such.

        Whether they “turn around” depends entirely if they can increase their debt beyond the 240% to GDP and the market continues to buy into it. The market didn’t believe them last year so it’s unlikely to believe them for much longer.

  11. mike7x says:

    FWIW: SPX Bullish Percentage Index

  12. mike7x says:


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