Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open then pullback, DOW +13

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.1%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Durable goods were reported higher: +0.8% v -2.8%, then at 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.4% v +5.7%. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2088 close and then rallied to 2097. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported lower: 94.2 v 96.2. The market then pulled back to SPX 2086 by 11am. After a rally to SPX 2093 by 12:30, the market pulled back again to 2086 by 3:30. Then the market rallied into a SPX 2092 close.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.30%. Bonds lost 8 ticks, Crude rose $1.40, Gold added $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: Pending home sales at 10am, then the FED’s rate decision at 2pm.

The marker opened higher today, rallied to SPX 2097, pulled back to 2086, and ended the day at 2092. From the recent SPX 2111 high it looks choppy thus far: 2081-2093-2078-2097. Possibly an extension to the uptrend if the market moves higher. Or a resumption of the pullback if the market drops below 2078. The Nasdaq closed lower for the fourth day in a row. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum hit overbought this morning, then ended the day just above neutral. FOMC days are often quite volatile!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market rally

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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339 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. bud67 says:

    My View. The SP500 is now sufficiently, overbought.
    Resistance lies at 2110 and again at 2118. Support,
    lies at 2036, also at 2023. My AGET wave count is
    at a W3 up in progress, a reversal down into a W4 low,
    is now due to form. IMO……


  2. kvilia says:

    One thing is certain – Obama will not win this election 😉


  3. Dex T says:

    Now that the Fed is behind us summer is fast approaching, so already low volume is set to drift even lower. Any huge moves will be sparse the next few months.

    Also, mercury goes retrograde tomorrow. The last massive drop Jan occurred during it and I’m curious to see if it happens again. I went short at 2098 as a gamble-( Stop at 2011)


    • mjtplayer says:

      We got the post Fed announcement S&P ramp and VIX smash. If the Fed meeting pattern holds true, we could make a HH tomorrow (above today’s high) and that should be it. Also, SPY hourly chart sporting a bear flag:


      BOJ meeting tonight, the markets actually expect the BOJ to move further into NIRP – crazy. NIRP has been an utter failure thus far in Japan and Europe, so why not double-down!


      • Dex T says:

        We could, but bullish seasonality is over and no big news expected in the U.S. My gamble is solely based on the retrograde. If there’s no movement by end of Friday I’ll exit.

        Japan is beyond central bank hope.

        I have the feeling that the Central bankers are playing a giant game of “chicken” and keep pushing themselves hoping to see how far they can go before someone stops them.


  4. timmy321 says:

    yeah right this is bear market action!!


  5. vivelaamo says:

    Are the bears finally giving in to the inevitable?


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