Monday update

SHORT TERM: pull back continues, DOW -27

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.7% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened 7 points below Friday’s SPX 2092 close. At 10am New home sales were reported lower: 511K v 512K. The market continued to decline until around 11am when the SPX hit 2078. Then the market rallied to SPX 2087 just past 1pm, pulled back to 2082 around 2:30, then close at 2088.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.15%. Bonds lost 6 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold rose $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: Durable goods at 8:30, Case-Shiller at 9am, and Consumer confidence at 10am.

The market opened lower today, dropped to SPX 2078 taking out Friday’s low, then rallied to 2088 close out the day. We now see three waves down from the SPX 2111 high: 2081-2093-2078 so far. None of the three levels, noted in the weekend update, have been breeched yet: 2111, 2074 and 2034. Until this occurs the market is sort of in consolidation mode ahead of the FED. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum made a positive divergence at this morning’s low. Trade what’s in front of you, invest in what you believe is ahead.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

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259 Responses to Monday update

  1. sixpack says:

    Hey Vivelaamo, are you watching something in particular that suggests big move up soon, or are you just riding the trend?

    • stcoleridge says:

      So these ATHs you are talking about coming later this week, will they include the NDX and NAZ?

  2. fotis2 says:

    Ok I give up! Just refuses to go down every little wink south has been bought up faster than you can say bots..geeez.Big bear go hibernate for another couple months say confucius…

  3. Tony Jordan says:

    The golden triangle potentially still in play. The author has the metal in wave 4 which makes sense given the time duration of this sideways activity. More precisely wave d of 4 of 1. May still take a week or three before the triangle is complete. Certainly no indication of any near term significant weakness in the metal by the miners as they are presently holding firm. If the count is correct wave 5 should follow and take price to new highs for the move and bring about the completion of larger wave 1. (Note here waves 1 and 3 within this advance have measured $41 and $240 respectively.) Then a major correction for larger wave 2 where the shorts will get their chance. More importantly wave 2 should be viewed as a buying opportunity throughout the sector.

  4. bud67 says:

    Crude Oil, in the daily contract, is seeing price bumping up to the upper
    Bollinger band, Much of the time, that is not a Bullish, signal. This though,
    suggest my sell in crude oil, was a satisfactory decision, more as it developes.

    SP500 – still not ready to abort my SDS hold at 18.33. this one
    is — in fact, if the SP should fall to the 2080, level – then I may add
    to my small SDS position….end

  5. bfquant says:

    Better than me. I sit in my rocking chair sucking my thumb in a perpetual ptsd from each Yellen meeting.

  6. phil1247 says:

    SPX close today at 2090.87

    still looks good to me

    any dissenters?

  7. simpleiam says:

    Enough with all the negative waves!

  8. mrtraderguy says:

    AAPL earnings after the bell… market higher or lower tomorrow… does AAPL still matter? We shall see.

    • purplember says:

      Apple has lowered the bar so LOW it will be hard for them not to beat it. however, my concern with Apple is the future / new products. you can’t invent the wheel every 2 years. once they go dry and they will, apple stock with DROP even though they continue to sell alot of iphones.

  9. Excuse me.. The URL I took to get to TC’s yesterday has taken be to the BullTard Convention and CF. Can anyone help?

  10. captbara says:

    Channel down or bull flag here

  11. vivelaamo says:

    Is anybody still trying to short this market? Or have they got no money left?

  12. bud67 says:

    Ref. My OIL, and crude oil investments.
    ___Closing All____Now. Go to cash.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    The move that is coming in the next few days is really going to destroy the Bears that think we have a top. It will be a violent straight line up. You have all been warned.

  14. blackjak100 says:

    Another ATH for NYAD today but market flat.

  15. mrtraderguy says:

    Seems like almost everybody either 1) got scared out of the market or 2) have been shorting the market. No sellers are left. Continue melt up for a while.

    • mjtplayer says:

      How about it’s the day before the Fed meeting so nothing is going on – sideways action on zero volume. More of the same for another 24 hours…

  16. fionamargaret says:


    • aahmichael says:

      So what happened to your 2040 call?

      • timmy321 says:

        what happened to your shorts? Got stopped out again for the nth time.

          • fionamargaret says:

            …have you guys listened to yourselves…you always want people to be wrong and then gloat… you like zero hedge because he wants you to think things are just awful – they will be if, by your totally negative comments, the market crashes…..and where would we be then…
            Contribute to the future instead of mocking everything…..

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        we will get the 2185 again soon then the 2040 then the 2185 then the 2040. eventually one will be correct =)

      • fionamargaret says:

        ……wasn’t working out.. – I did say, if you re-read my notes $SPX 2185, but think a correction first – say 2040 – which may or may not work out.
        Last sentence $SPX 2185 until its not….that is my position. Same number I have given for weeks…..and that is my initial number, 2300 after that, then 2516.

        Don’t you think the whole idea behind the Fed actions is to get money flowing freer, to stimulate all parts of the economy, keep the pension funds healthy etc., etc.
        The fact that stocks, high-yield bonds gat a higher valuation than normal is because there is no option left….apart from the fact you cannot keep allowing all the money flows to boost housing..stocks have to allow you to make enough money that one considers buying in the market rather than another house.

    • fionamargaret says:


  17. mrtraderguy says:

    Machines are going to push oil to $60, maybe even $70.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Really, you say that because yo read a zerohedge article on Morgan Stanley’s analysis?
      How do you factor in the record open long positioning in Crude futures? Surely you must have read that zerohedge article as well?

  18. I’ve added four examples of two-bar fractals to this chart; two are ‘down’ fractals and are colored red; two are ‘up’ fractals and are colored green. In the Bill William’s method between two fractals is always, always, always an Elliott Wave of some degree. For those not familiar with the terminology the very last two fractals, one green and one red constitute a “bracket”. This is what he means in the video, “when a bracket goes, it usually goes farther than one expects.” This is because it would likely form a 3rd wave or a C wave.

    Recognizing the bracket can help one ‘not care which way the market goes’ but to be prepared for either eventuality.

    ESM16 - Half-Hourly - Apr-26 1332 PM (30 min)


  19. phil1247 says:

    WHAT is the closing price of SPX today????



    any other choices from all casino participants??

    you can change your choice until 3:45 PM

    i cannot change my choice

  20. mrtraderguy says:

    New all-time high this week? It’s looking more and more inevitable. We shall see. Be careful.

  21. torehund says:

    Last 6 months Rut minus 9 percent and Spx minus 1,2 percent. Maybe Rut will play catch up🙂

  22. mrtraderguy says:

    $NYAD – no further comment

  23. rigged09 says:

    As long as Russell is screaming, this market is not going down!

  24. mrtraderguy says:

    Mr. Caldaro, stay strong. I know everyone on this board is pulling for you. I am confident your ideas will, in the end, prevail. Timing is a little uncertain. Please keep doing what you are doing!

    • Holly Silver says:

      Emotions should not involve stock market assumptions and reactions. A losing proposition. Once you “root for someone” you committed to a position. His position. Me, I am myopic when it comes to the market. I never try to rationalize the markets since it is always a losing position. the stock market has been doing a much better job of evaluating the future than any individual I know. Markets drop dramatically percentage wise is a rare event. that means they seem to diagnose the future fairly well. Since the wave structure is such that we can indeed be in a BEAR SECULAR trend even at these prices you shouldn’t think in terms of short term moves. Me, I doubt the assumption that we are in a bear secular trend, so my views are more radical than most here. I will let events dictate and change with them as opposed to front running it.

      • Holly as a successful trader I must say your post is the best one seen here in a long time. Most on this blog are amateurs focused far to much on prediction and not enough on developing the skills to become good traders.

        • sixpack says:

          Alot of this is entertainment ya know. It’s kinda like tuning into Cramer. Get some good laughs, but do pick something up from time to time and also try to add periodically. That’s all.

          • Holly Silver says:

            Kramer made the all time best call on the day the SP500 hit 666. he announced on his “Mad Money” show that we should sell everything. His panic was a classic emotional bottom.

      • mrtraderguy says:

        Just offering a little encouragement to the host – don’t read too much into it.

        • aahmichael says:

          What I find completely bizarre is that you think that Tony, or anyone else on this site, would actually listen to and internalize any kind of trading or emotional advice that you “provide” here. Think about it. Just like most of us here, you are nothing more than an anonymous screen name on an internet blog. Do you really think that anyone could be influenced in any way from such a thing?

  25. mrtraderguy says:

    Bears are getting stomped and kicked to the curb again! It’s like the Fed is taking a hatchet to finish off all mortally wounded bears as they lay dying on the battlefield. I wouldn’t wish this on my worst enemies. Great set up for bulls though.

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