Thursday update

SHORT TERM: market opens unchanged, DOW -114

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 247K v 253K, and the Philly FED was reported contracting: -1.6 v 12.4. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.5%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2102, ticked up to 2104, then pulled back to 2095 just past 10am. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. The market rallied to SPX 2103 by about 11am, and then started to pullback again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2089, then bounced into the close to end the day at 2091.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds fell 5 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.

The market opened unchanged today, pulled back, rallied to just above the open, then declined for the rest of the day. Around 2pm the SPX entered the 2085 pivot range, suggesting the five wave rally from the recent 2034 low had concluded. In order to confirm this the market will need to drop down to SPX 2074. Then to keep the downside momentum going, a drop to SPX 2034 is required. At that point probabilities would increase that a downtrend is underway. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum declined to oversold after yesterday’s negative divergence. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

362 Responses to Thursday update

  1. sixpack says:

    Here’s another perspective for ya all. It’s a way to view the longterm count. I acknowledge that Tony does not use the “Running Correction”, therefore take it or leave it, but I believe that RN Elliot did.

    So here it is, label the top of P1 in the spring of 2010, and then the bottom of P2 in the fall of 2011. Page 41 and page 42 of the old Elliot Wave Principal book discuss this correction and how it exudes strength. Hence P3 was as big and as long as it was. Plus it explains the 5 wave selloff in the fall of 2011 because a flat is a 3-3-5 event. Many of the individual stocks support this count (examine FDX). This means Avi s dead wrong, and after you look at the extent of P2 this way, then the large A-B-C flat we just experienced for P4 gives everything the right look. This still suggests currently a P5 and new highs in 2016.

    Just another view is all, but when I started looking at it this way, the lights really went on for me.

    Good luck all!

  2. 18,000 and 2100 are the obvious psychological levels TPTB would like to preserve over the weekend. The fact we are trading here is a perfect example of the 100% manipulation capability of these clowns over the short term.

  3. phil1247 says:

    ANY other casino participants want to call the closing price SPX??

    i have 2091.3…..

    cutoff is 5 min before close

  4. Anyone know anything about this penny stock Gold Mining company called TRX in Tanzania?

    Apparently, gold bugs Andy Hoffman and Bill Holter made a one year loan of 743 of their American Liberty Gold Pieces (maturing in June of 2016) to Jim Sinclair’s TRX in return for a promissory note secured by assets held by a foreign company on a property owned by another company in a foreign country!

    Good luck trying to seize collateral when this goes bad.

  5. All I can say is, it was a good week as nothing from ACME failed and caused me great bodily harm.

    My outlook is the prop into today and probably a BS open on monday, are likely “IT” for this run upward. Looking for a relatively high degree decline, first weigh station below 1600.

  6. sixpack says:

    ECRI’s weekly leading index jumped another point today. Well into the green now. Bears beware.

  7. Stepping back, squinting my eyes, and looking at the Monthly chart, I still believe we are in P3. The recent 13% and 15% corrections were not large enough to warrant a change. Not like 2011 which hit roughly 20%. SPY (which includes dividends) hit an all time high on Wednesday.

  8. avkanoi says:

    Shorters are dead meat? Yet again…….. Boring markets…… Can’t imagine a day with so many big misses on earnings and markets still flat!….. Big move on Monday I presume!

    • philip912 says:

      Terrible earnings, huge equity redemption’s and buybacks on hold….yet you can’t knock the market down. It’s amazingly strong for whats being thrown at it. Conclusion: weak shorts are climbing all over each other to get at every opportunity. Until this activity plays out the market will grind higher. The only thing that could stop it would be the FED and that is rather unlikely.

  9. cmucha68 says:

    Next week All time High !!!

    • Greg Mannarino changed his mind and does not think we take out the high of May 2015.

      I don’t know, but if we don’t the bear structure is much stronger with the seasonal cycle top in back then. Based on what I expect to happen, that fits.

  10. cmucha68 says:

    Newbie is my best friend and hero forever:

    Newbie said: currently at spx 2086 now we drop to 2070

  11. phil1247 says:

    Closing price of SPX today????



  12. Interesting to see there’s no shortage of “analysts” clueless on Gold here.

  13. fotis2 says:


  14. H D says:

    Tony, another technical day. 2085P, 10 handle bounce, 10 AM, SPX LOD -10 from yesterday close….All BOTs.

    would be funny if 4/20 was the “high” :mrgreen: Have a great weekend.

  15. moo42 says:

    RC – I’m missing your earnings updates!

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      dude whats the point – Visa, GE, MSFT, and Google all missed and market is up. And the leaders of the day are financials who had some of the worst earnings but because they bought back tons of stock and slashed massive costs and jobs they were able to meet their massively lowered expectations that were big negatives from the previous years

      do you need any more information. Earnings will matter some day but right now they don’t. Delusion is at extreme levels

    • bud67 says:

      Is that RC from – where? Minnesota?

Comments are closed.