SHORT TERM: market opens unchanged, DOW -114
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.5%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were relatively flat overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 247K v 253K, and the Philly FED was reported contracting: -1.6 v 12.4. Then at 9am the FHFA was reported higher: +0.4% v +0.5%. The market opened unchanged at SPX 2102, ticked up to 2104, then pulled back to 2095 just past 10am. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.2% v +0.1%. The market rallied to SPX 2103 by about 11am, and then started to pullback again. At 2:30 the SPX hit 2089, then bounced into the close to end the day at 2091.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.60%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds fell 5 ticks, Crude dropped 60 cents, Gold rose $5, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot.
The market opened unchanged today, pulled back, rallied to just above the open, then declined for the rest of the day. Around 2pm the SPX entered the 2085 pivot range, suggesting the five wave rally from the recent 2034 low had concluded. In order to confirm this the market will need to drop down to SPX 2074. Then to keep the downside momentum going, a drop to SPX 2034 is required. At that point probabilities would increase that a downtrend is underway. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum declined to oversold after yesterday’s negative divergence. Trade what is in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market rally