Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +43

Overnight the Asian markets finished flat. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were higher overnight and the market opened one point above yesterday’s SPX 2101 close. In the opening minutes the market started to pullback. At 10am Existing home sales were reported higher: 5.33M v 5.08M. By 10:30 the SPX had reached 2096 and then started to rally. At 3pm the SPX hit a new uptrend high at 2111. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2102.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 18 ticks, Crude rose $1.30, Gold dropped $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: the ECB concludes their meeting, weekly Jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, the FHFA index at 9am, and Leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened slightly higher, dipped, and then made new uptrend high at SPX 2111. The short term count remains unchanged with five waves up from SPX 2034: 2061-2040-2088-2074-2111. The market continues to remain positive until the 2085 pivot range is reached again. Then the short term pattern would have reversed to potentially start a downtrend. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2116 and the 2131 pivot. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence at today’s high. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market rally


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

405 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. There ya have it. Gotta run, there’s an ACME box at the door.

  2. bud67 says:

    Crude Oil, see it is still in an uptrend to 50 ish…
    so, it is still in a Bull – uptrend….

    • simpleiam says:

      Hey Michael, bud was here long before you, and even before me. Let it go, please.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:


    • bud67 says:

      AAH – how is my foul mouth friend these days?
      But, your right about one thing. Tony, does not
      monitor this board – or you would be history.
      But – but I digress. Your wonderful words of
      kindness simply overwhelms, me at time.
      So, stop your crying. I think I have been on
      this blog a lot longer than you. That said.
      go back to the hole you crawled out of,
      and make like a nice person, that you can be..

    • ABchart says:

      How can you see it in an uptrend while you never post a chart? how can we understand your count?

      • bud67 says:

        AB — good to hear from you. Thought, you left OEW?
        Son, your not reading my work, calling for a pullback now.
        But — FYI – I do not post a chart, simply because I use the
        blog owners charts, as well as my own. Check it out….

      • bud67 says:

        I use, OEW charts, as well
        as my own. Now, look at the
        SP500 for today. Do you see
        a topping pattern? Do you see
        a Bear divergence in the SP500 index.
        Do you see, the price label TC placed
        on the chart – all are ingredients to
        commenting on the SP chart, IMHO…

  3. simpleiam says:

    Here’s a great bear picture for NEWBIE if he’s anywhere around:

  4. learner3078 says:

    seems like market wants to move higher due to weaker usd. next week fed meeting will be pivotal. unless it’s hawkish, may see an all time high early may before a more serious correction in the summer.

  5. phil1247 says:


    2092 a key area

    see what it looks like tomorrow


  6. ABchart says:

    After hours: GOOG and MSFT earnings. NDX may bounce like February 1st.

  7. SP futures broke the first level of support, and is backtesting. The Whack-a-mole Team is on smoke break.

  8. mrtraderguy says:

    Is that it? Is the pullback over? If so, hard to keep from laughing here (sorry bears)…

    On a serious note, I expect they can do a little better than that – if now, just wow…

  9. NINJA SHADE says:

    Breakdown right there at 2092 from a falling wedge is bearish, now would be nice to hold for a close below 2091 today. Looks like some sell stops are being taken out… Could be due for a bounce here at ES2081 CLVN, but should be a short-lived one if this down move has some force.

  10. nsteve24 says:

    SPY needs to break the 2/11 low uptrend line which today is at 208.48

  11. sixpack says:

    S&P down trend from all time highs (the top of bull flag) was broken to the upside on Monday. The Market should go down and kiss that longterm trendline before it moves higher. That support line is currently at the 2075-2080 level. Could be a shallow sideways correction while this happens. BTD

  12. mjtplayer says:

    Today doesn’t have the look of feel of the recent trading days, perhaps central bank meetings are moot after the recent rally we’ve seen? Mission accomplished as far as re-inflating assets from the Jan/Feb sell-off, so now it’s time to end the dovish talk and begin hinting at “normalizing rates” again? Markets sell-off on rate hike fears, so the Fed doesn’t hike and markets rally – around and around we go.

Comments are closed.