Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +49

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.7%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.5%. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 Building permits were reported lower: 1086K v 1167K, and Housing starts were reported lower too: 1089K v 1178K. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2094 close, then rose to 2104 by 11am. After a pullback to SPX 2092 just past 1pm the market started to rise again. Heading into the close the SPX hit 2101 and closed there.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.50%. Bonds lost 7 ticks, Crude rose $1.25, Gold rallied $18, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: Existing home sales at 10am.

The market opened higher today, rallied to short term resistance at SPX 2104, pulled back, then closed at 2101. The rally from the recent SPX 2034 low remains underway and is still in its fifth wave. The five waves up were noted in yesterday’s report. Not much has changed, except the first signs of some downside pressure will appear once the market drops below the 2085 pivot. Short term support remains at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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394 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. vivelaamo says:

    If you look at the DOW futures only weekly candle you will see 10 weeks in a row of higher higher and higher lows. That is some bullish shit!!

  2. mrtraderguy says:

    Another great finish. It left the bulls satisfied that more upside is ahead. AND it gave encouragement to the shorts that a downturn is imminent. And so it goes…

  3. Best trader on this blog is phil1247.

    If everyone would just shut up and only phil posted here, there would be a lot of happy day traders.

    This ludicrous 2016, 2185, 2056 and other numbers that fiona throws out is probably the worst, because she seems to be a respected analyst, and acts grossly irresponsible with bs number!!

    Get ready for the bear traderzzzzzzzzzz!!

  4. kvilia says:

    Tick-tuck, tick-tuck

  5. What time is the ECB announcement tommorow?

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    If this is the top I’m going to dub it the Santelli Smelly

  7. fionamargaret says:


    • Full of crap!! Seriously enough with ur silly 4 digits!! lol

      • fotis2 says:

        Wrong bro! Fiona been reading this Market like a book why you so disrespectful?Respect the fairer sex, basic common manners geeez..

        • joemal97 says:

          Thank you Fiona for your postings. I read this blog daily because of the comments of knowledgeable people like you, Tony, AAhMichael, TJ, Iberias, and many others. Even if I disagree with an analysis, I’m smarter because it gave me a different perspective to consider in my trading. Thank you.

        • fionamargaret says:

          Thank you both. xx

          • I don’t have a problem with the analysis. I think Fiona’s analysis is great. She should just cut it with the silly numbers.

            When we were 2040 and rallying above 2056, she insisted on 2016. Then when we were near 2090’s and poised to go higher she instead of 2056, now we have hit 2112 and were breaking down hard in the last hour, she had 2185 …..I think all that number prediction is just not needed.

            Rest all is gr8. Thx!!

  8. NEWBIE says:

    Tony C, will come out smelling a rose! Huge wave down coming compliments of the ECB

  9. mrtraderguy says:

    Shorts, just a warning – 60% chance of a BIG up tomorrow. My HODU indicator is flashing… just saying

  10. well, we got the 2110 i knew the bears would give up, as I mentioned below, now lets see if we can get the red close I was looking for

  11. Peter Sliney says:

    Since the market has been sideways for a year and a half and now looks to be really breaking to the upside. I’m betting we see a 20,000 Dow by mid 2017. I just hope we get a few pullbacks first.

  12. Page says:

    Extremely overbought. A significant pullback is imminent.

  13. mrtraderguy says:

    Strong finish or weak finish today???

  14. phil1247 says:


    nice reversal from target

    could get fast drop to 2089 for next buy point

  15. Further update .. the yellow alternate (1), (2), (3) .. with (4) of a diagonal coming depends on overlaps. (I don’t ‘make’ the market .. just try to count it!). It would still be a valid diagonal because (3) is currently shorter than (1). Then (4) would have to remain shorter than (2).

    SPX - Five Minute - Apr-20 1516 PM (5 min)


  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Santelli is saying this market is going to explode higher

    damn never thought he’d say that with bad fundamentals

    maybe we are about to top lol

  17. phil1247 says:


    gettin its mojo going again

    oil and gold starting to feel the heat

    took profits in UCO

  18. mrtraderguy says:

    Just a thought – the smart money (hint: not the investors reading blogs like me) is buying up every dip. Yes, they know more than we do. While I’m not going to tell you NOT to short this market, I’m also not encouraging it. Best of luck to the shorts – at some point there is ALOT OF MONEY to be made. Hang tough.

  19. phil1247 says:


    target hit

  20. rd3777 says:

    The Triple Zig-Zag Supercycle degree Fed induced mania wave looks to gather more viability each day. Crude has now 7 waves up and the NDX looks to be finished. Just a waiting game for the bubble to burst.

  21. stmro says:

    ECB tomorrow and FED next week. Probably more ramp and camp behaviour to come as central banks give equity markets the full reach-around treatment.

  22. NEWBIE says:

    Cmucha, how long you been dating?

  23. kvilia says:

    Hey Lee, ennjoying the blog hiphoria?
    I remember in 2009 below 700 everyone was selling 🙂

  24. ISINCODE says:

    Good news is for (B)ULLs is that this has all the indication it will run to 2132…If we start seeing significant chop with 20+ point swings in both directions without breaking ATH’s then we are close to breaking this (B)ad (B)oy…This has been one nasty (B).tch

  25. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Hourly RSI on S&P got up to around 95 at 2104
    Only took 2092 to get it down to 50
    Now RSI is at 85 but S&P is at 2110

    that isn’t bearish

  26. vivelaamo says:

    How to post a chart from my phone? I want to post a chart of this bear market.

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