Monday update

SHORT TERM: market opens lower then rallies, DOW +107

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened at SPX 2074. The SPX had closed at 2081 on Friday. A few minutes after the open the market started to rally. At 10am the NAHB was reported unchanged at 58. The rally continued throughout the day, with only one 4 point pullback, until the market hit SPX 2095 near the close. Then a late dip ended the day at SPX 2094.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.50%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slid 40 cents, Gold slipped $2, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 2070 and 2085 pivots, with resistance at the 2131 pivot. Tomorrow: Building permits and Housing starts at 8:30.

The market opened the week lower on the Doha meeting failure. Soon after the open the market shrugged it off and started making new uptrends highs by around 10:30. By 11:30 the SPX had reached the 0.618 Int. C to Int. A relationship noted in the weekend update, as the market continued higher. We can now count five waves up from the recent SPX 2034 low: 2061-2040-2088-2074-2095. And a corrective eleven waves up from the SPX 1810 downtrend low. With the negative divergences on the daily charts remaining, the market will need to drop back to the 2070 pivot range to get something going on the downside. Short term support is at the 2085 and 2070 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2104 and SPX 2116. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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424 Responses to Monday update

  1. cmucha68 says:

    No one is forcing Tony to do this. If you are setting up a web page with infos about the market and selling seminars you must bear the critics, especially if you are continuously offering wrong counts and then never apologize or admit failures. For such nonsense he does not deserve applaus. No one is a crying baby if he says his opinion. If you post on your page the market goes down, the top is in and then adjust your tops higher and higher and people then start laughing at you, you better change your job or disappear from the net. Because Tony of offering his opinion for free does not make him a good Elliott Wave counter or trader. If you say something in public and you are wrong and then people start pointing the finger at you that’s your problem. Just because you are offering something for free doesn’t mean is automatically good.

  2. The EMA-34 (a favorite counting tool) says .. this morning we only had wave (iv) as predicted yesterday. Wave (iv) is an expanded flat, wave (ii) is a sharp. So there is good alternation. Downward wave was c = 1.618 x a, and the downward wave was within the 38.2% retrace from the high.

    Ira Epstein would say, “this upper Bollinger Band is a place where the ‘Smart Money’ is likely taking profits”. The probability of being above the bands is only 5% and decreases with every close above the bands. Also, now that people are coming out with their wildly bullish projections, ‘in April’ instead of at the February lows, I am turning more more bearish than bullish. You will recall, I was one of the first to say the up wave could be P V. I was the first person to count on this site as all five wave sequences upward, when OEW was counting as “threes”. I will not be the last to exits. I will be flexible and patient in my own account. This is not trading or investment advice.

    ESM16 - Half-Hourly - Apr-19 1502 PM (30 min)


    • blackjak100 says:

      TJ, since you are quoting Ira Epstein…here’s what I see. The slow stochastics are going to re-embed today which is a powerful signal. I see riding the upper BB during this 3 of 5 wave up. I got stopped out of my short and went long at 2094. NYAD still very strong. Why keep changing the count to your bearish bias? Ira wouldn’t suggest going short here…HELLO!

      By the way, nobody cares if you were the first or last person to say or suggest something. People just want to learn here and you just jump all over the place with ideas.

      • bj .. part of the reason I posted that was specifically to see your reaction. I notice how you ‘always’ have something negative to say about me or my counts. Even if what you say is a complete misrepresentation. I DID NOT say to go short here. I only said I am turning “more bearish”. I guess to you that means one must immediately ‘jump in short’. That is just not the case. I may just be looking for a larger pull back here. The fact is you ‘assume’ what you think is in my head, and, so far it has not been accurate. Yes, you are correct the stochastic may re-embed, but when it does Ira says that often indicates the market has weakened just a bit (if you have watched him over the years).

        You will not understand what I am doing until you understand that what I do is 1) count the Elliott Wave using Bill Williams counting method, and 2) trade fractals when I can find them according to the Bill Williams method. They are two separate things. I do them ‘both at the same time’. Yes, I can walk and chew gum at the same time. And, I try my darnest not to ‘fight’ the trend. Personally, I think you need to lighten up a bit. I can see you are learning. But enjoy it! Want what the market wants!

        • blackjak100 says:

          I’m going to lighten up from here my friend. By the way, I liked your triangle count and said the 3pt it needed to hit next day to be valid and the bullseye was hit. So no, everything is not negative towards you or your counts. I’ve said what needed to be said.

    • blackjak100 says:

      the more I read your posts…you sound so dumb. A few of us at work use that saying when we just shake our heads. I’m sorry man and it has nothing to do with your charting skills, but everything to do with ‘I was the first count this when OEW counted this way’.

    • spindoc73 says:

      For the way this observer takes information, the label 2 represents a wave that started fast and curled sideways, producing a bullish psychology in a short period of time. The wave 4 label gives a sharp drop off a sideways retrace of the prior advance. They are different but the sharp versus sideways labeling doesn’t always seem descriptive. Thanks for sharing.

    • indy dhandee says:

      Been following you few weeks
      Excellent work …great counts, trading knowledge ++
      Made decent money on your triangle count …thanks

  3. kjb0 says:

    I have been reading this board for many years along with Igor and some others. I don’t recall this many cry baby, I told you so after the fact,
    Whining posters. Lee thinks they have late stage syphilis. . I think they all have
    ” cranial rectumitus”.
    I for one appreciate the thankless job you do.

    • mrtraderguy says:

      Good point. Tony devotes much time and energy to this website (and money, I suppose) and provides his insight TOTALLY FREE OF CHARGE. His pivots alone seem particularly useful. The market is the market – whatever you are thinking is a good idea or safe idea for investing is likely wrong.

  4. Tony Jordan says:

    Gold miners still not confirming the heavily positioned gold shorts.
    Mind you this move could be getting stretched to the downside for the present. 53% retracement of a 52 month advance in just 3 months

    • I posed the question about 3 weeks ago,when COT charts first started showing these huge short positions–couldn t a gold rally lead to all those shorts covering to big effect?On another gold topic,I read the question:Is gold overbought?Right now gold is $140 over its 200d.In the 2008-2011 bull market…early runups in gold took it $200 over the 200dma 3 times and then in the blowoff top,jumped 400-500 above.If this is the start of something “bull-like”,1340 would be a logical first stopping point for a rest.Gold ETFs broke out last week.Good luck all.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      The only serious short covering is at the lows. But this is behind us now. During the cyclical gold bull that peaked in 2011 the shorts would just pile up and pile up and get shorter and shorter and wait for the inevitable pullbacks to cover. Rinse and repeat. The commercials have deep pockets and, like crocodiles, can stay under water a long time. Often their hedging other positions by being short gold futures and feel little pain. I’d expect much the same this time around. On the other hand an explosive period of short covering due to a black swan event mid-stream could happen. It would be entertaining to say the least and cheered on by all who are long the sector however it’s not something we should really bank on.

    • Tony Jordan says:

      The golden triangle (4 of 3) potentially still in play. If correct might be some before we get the larger wave 2 down which would be the optimum time to buy for those wisely looking to get some exposure to this sector.

  5. phil1247 says:

    15 min short held so far

    next spx 2095 must fail to get the ball rolling downhill

  6. sixpack says:

    That’s an amazing chart Ilarias7. Look how the monthly RSI bounced off the 50 level. Awesome. Can you tell us how you measured the target? Thx

  7. zvyezda says:

    AB, or anyone else who wants to chime in, should we expect anything from the ECB on Thursday (morning?) or will it be market neutral?

    • 123 abc says:

      Doesn’t matter what the ECB/FED say; whether good/bad/neutral news, the market will simply spike upwards. Just need to drop enough between now and Thursday to create enough headroom to contain the spike below 2104. As the bear market unfolds, anything said by the ECB/FED and politicians will be an attempt to calm the markets which will simply create strong b-wave rallies.

      • zvyezda says:

        123; your charts now look complete but since we only have one trading day between now and then, I’m just being wary of being whipsawed by central bank “deus ex machina” market skyhooks. As for BOJ on 27th & 28th, I think they are out of options.

  8. llerias7 says:

    I guess many of you are not prepared for this…YET:

    In the summer will love it.

    • captbara says:

      SP 3200 then retest horizontal line at 1600… Haha

    • sixpack says:

      I am. How did you come up with that target?

    • avkanoi says:

      Llerias7 brilliant charts….. Wait for approx 2135 to be taken out… 30 points left…. I think Tony would also give us similar targets once 2135 is broken up….
      Best to stay out now….. As long term ‘bear market’ and remember Tony s the Guru !!

  9. Tony Jordan says:

    abc 123 says we have enough and we do on a host of indexes. Not all look convincing however. Jimmy Porter’s looking for one more HH. This sounds reasonable to me. Target out of the 2039 triangle is around 2107. Counting as an impulse w5 = w1 x 50% also at 2107. European futures didn’t react much to the morning profit taking on WS are still within striking distance of the post-Doha highs. For example, from the “Doha Aloha” lows DAX futures rallied 467 points and are still within 30 points of the high. So one more HH would make certain charts look more complete. To summarize, either we are done or we need one more HH or (super bullish) today’s high was only the 1st wave of wave 3 out of the triangle. The last one is perhaps unlikely but I wouldn’t bet the igloo against it. If it were the case we should be in blast-off mode now (i.e. 3 of 3).

  10. the correction so far doesnt look impulsive just abc… unless it breaks 2080ish.. this could be the start of fifth wave from the move at 2036ish

    • if its 5th, we will test 2115.. some ew experts with bearish count mindset have this as C. and A was move 2115 last year and we just went to 1810 under B.. hence acccording to them C has to move up beyond A, before starting 3 down..lets see

  11. vivelaamo says:

    I’ve mentioned this once before but seriously people need to avoid zero hedge like the plague. For 7 years now he has been posting bearish post after post based on fundamentals while the market has pretty much gone in one direction. Yes Up! The guy must be seriously bitter and twisted.

  12. going to retest 2104. see what happens from there

  13. phil1247 says:


    HWB 15 min SHORT traded

    can it hold is the question…

    until one does it cannot go down

  14. kvilia says:

    Not calling the top here, crude is on the move, and nothing stops PP team. However, there is no way this is a healthy uptrend, it will end badly, just the way Tony has it in the books.
    One of the puzzle pieces:

    • vivelaamo says:

      Every time I see a zerohedge article I want to go long. That guy is nuts.

      • kvilia says:

        Read it, he does not make it up. I think this is a huge bull trap, so although bleeding like hell, I am trying to short and re-short, and do it again until this move up is done. Next week maybe.

        • vivelaamo says:

          read my other post. Trust me you gotta ignore anything this guy posts. He is very dangerous. By all means go short but don’t do it based on any of his articles ever.

  15. NINJA SHADE says:

    Interesting that the 5 waves from 2034 has internal structure of 3-3-3-3-3. Today’s top at 2104 is weak, don’t like it very much without a HH but hey, price is the king.

  16. vivelaamo says:

    For those calling tops (again) lets see how the day ends hey? Could be closing with a shooting start to tease in some more shorts.

  17. jwmcbride says:

    Spring is here time to kick back and relax and fire up the old grill

  18. rd3777 says:

    The same basic top as january,but this top is much stonger….but the same stucture.

  19. A 5 handle rip from 85 to 90 and already shorts in wet pants. That’s what this rally has done. Taken away all the conviction. One of these days, wake up to a 20 handle gap down that finishes the day -50. And then the bears will be back, and get whipsawed again, n again n again.

  20. ABchart says:

    ES: only a pullback. Still intraday target at 2081

  21. nsteve24 says:

    $SOX:$JPY ratio of semi index to yen
    indicator is showing divergence which is known to accompany significant turn

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