weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2048. After a gap up opening on Monday the SPX hit 2063. Tuesday it pulled back to SPX 2040, and then had another gap up opening on Wednesday that carried the SPX to 2088 by Thursday. Friday the market pulled back and ended the week at SPX 2081. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.70%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.65%, and the DJ World gained 2.50%. Economic reports for the week came in mixed. On the downtick: import prices, the PPI, retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: export prices, the CPI, the NY FED, the GDPN, the WLEI, Investor sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Philly FED, Leading indicators and Housing.

LONG TERM: bear market

We continue to count the 2009 bull market as having ended in 2015. We were expecting five Primary waves for a Cycle [1] bull market, and five primary waves unfolded. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary waves III, IV and V completed in 2015. After that high the market corrected into February which we labeled Major wave A. Since then the market has rallied in a Major wave B uptrend. While the uptrend has been quite strong in price and market breadth, we see no reason to change the count at this time. B waves can sometimes look just like bull markets in price and market breadth, as many stocks rebound from oversold lows.


MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The uptrend that began in mid-February has now completed its second month. The advance began at SPX 1810, and has now reached SPX 2088. Quite a strong uptrend. Despite the surge, and impulsive type of activity, we continue to count the advance as a corrective B wave. After a review of the waves we now see 11 significant waves during this advance. Five overlapping waves for Intermediate A, an Intermediate wave B pullback, and again five overlapping waves for Intermediate wave C. These three Int. waves make up the Major wave B uptrend.


As noted on the daily chart above Int. A topped at SPX 2009, Int. B bottomed at SPX 1969, and Int. C is still underway. The five waves for Int. A: 1947-1891-1963-1932-2009. The five waves for Int. C: 2057-2022-2075-2034-2088 thus far. In both waves this pattern displays a strong first wave, then weaker and overlapping third and fifth waves. In fact, at SPX 2092, just within the 2085 pivot range, Int. C equals 0.618 Int. A. Medium term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots.


The pattern described above is detailed a bit more on the hourly chart. Intermediate waves A and C divided into the Minor waves. And then, Minor wave C in each, dividing further into three Minute waves. This could explain why this uptrend has continued to extend. Each of these rising waves has looked impulsive. Even the rally from SPX 2022-2075 subdivided into five clear waves. And the current rally from SPX 2032 appears to be doing the same. Currently we count three waves up from the SPX 2032 low: 2061-2040-2088 with the 4th wave possibly underway now. When this short term pattern concludes the uptrend should conclude as well.


We continue to see negative divergences on the daily RSI/MACD with decreasing volume on the weekly chart. There is a cluster of overhead resistance from the 2085 pivot on up: SPX 2104, SPX 2116, and the 2131 pivot. Short term support remains at the 2070 and 2043 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral.


The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 3.6%.

The European markets were all higher gaining 3.8%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 3.3%.

The DJ World index gained 2.5%.


Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.3%.

Crude continues to uptrend and gained 5.2%.

Gold looks like its in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.

The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.5%.


Monday: the NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: Building permits and Housing starts. Wednesday: Existing home sales. Thursday: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims, the Philly FED, the FHFA and Leading indicators. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in weekend update and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

380 Responses to weekend update

  1. kvilia says:

    13 more points on SPX.

  2. At my final geometric downtrend line at today’s high (now). Only two possibilities from here.
    Either we make a false breakout and then start to correct, or we make a true breakout and it sticks. I think it will be the the former. But who can really say?

  3. reddragonleo says:

    I think we top tomorrow, as we are very close to my FP target on the SPY.

  4. torehund says:

    ..hold on to Your toupees 🙂

  5. stmro says:

    Wow this is boring. Market playbook March/April:

    Step 1 – Ramp
    Step 2 – Camp

  6. bud67 says:

    In closing today – I wish to share with all.
    My favorite T/A indicator. It is the Daily, NY
    advance/decline line. Which is currently, at
    new highs, but is that a level that will do higher,
    or break down? IMO. I feel the a/d line is ripe
    for a big reversal to the downside. And, that is
    the reason, I went short today (SDS 18.33).
    The Bulls, cannot afford the a/d line to start down…encid.

  7. blackjak100 says:

    Went short @ 2089 but will close it out with a close above 2093 today. odds increase at a run for new ATH with close above 2093.

  8. This is now down to the five-minute chart level; wave -iii just met it’s Fibonacci target of 1.618 x the length of wave -i. Price keeps making targets, not missing them. But, because wave -ii is a ‘sharp’ or ‘zigzag’; what shape should wave -iv be ?

    ES 06-16 (5 Min)  4_18_2016a


  9. mjtplayer says:

    Tony’s SPX 2,085 pivot range has been cleared, as has SPX 2,092; currently trading 2,094.

    Absolutely focking relentless, it just won’t go down…

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    PS – bulls keep raising their targets for a retracement and bears keep raising their targets for C wave

    what does that tell me? No one knows squat here. No one here has an idea when this – you can squiggle this or squiggle that but no one is on here except for bulls her being long in general.

  11. steplaland says:

    Seeing all fibs line up at 2128.

  12. purplember says:

    i’ve sent out GDP to market valuation in past. it’s not great short term indicator but is intermediate/long term it is. The market can’t be worth more than the total economy. Buffett has said in past, it’s the single best indicator of market valuation.

    Historical average is 57% (stock mkt to GDP) and today is 99% or 72% overvalued. that doesn’t mean the bubble can’t continue for awhile.


  13. phil1247 says:

    SPX still toying with downtrend line

    up against daily boll band with overbought stochastic that is not yet embedded (day 2)

    3 points from /ES -23% target

    too risky to do anything now


  14. skmcobra says:

    There’s really no way to say this w/o sounding sarcastic but…TC’s count is REALLY looking busted for the long term. IF we see the SPX above the early Nov 2015 high, it is definitely busted. That will put me squarely in the P5 wave with the last pb to 1810 being C of P4.

    • captbara says:

      Busted or not the count had you trading (or at least thinking) in the opposite direction for 280 pts. Back to back as well with the failed 5th. Trading on EW and oscillators alone is dangerous.

      • skmcobra says:

        True and I began moving back to cash in early March thru late March and am now nearly 100% cash other than a bond fund that’s doing well. I went very conservative between 2000-2040SPX thinking we were either in P4 or PA waves.

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Personally I think the traders and their algorithmic machines know the volume is low and retail and institutions are afraid to buy and shorts are scared staying short and so it is easier to manipulate things and BTD it up. Volume is key to volatility here. The slow crawl is killing bears

    • gasman88 says:

      We are dealing with the ‘next generation’ market, where algorithms are programmed to exploit human emotions. The common expectation for today was that the market would be down because of Doha, so everyone was leaning to the short side. Machines used that to create quick reversal, short squeeze started to feed on itself and sucked in the momentum players. The key to be successful in this market is to do the opposite what the common sense tells you (easier said than done)

  16. gasman88 says:

    Resistance is futile, become a Borg and join the machines in a buying frenzy.
    There is no other way

  17. Sandra Dons says:

    Lot of words here but invisible bear continues to joke

  18. Jim Guthery says:

    Cash is really a good position right now!

  19. NEWBIE says:

    I don’t think people realize what kind of dire situation we are truly in. We have printed like mad men, while our national debt skyrockets, and other countries want to replace our dollar with a new world currency backed by gold, our back is against the wall this craziness cant last forever.

    • Holly Silver says:

      Nonsense! Could say the same thing for decades. Does anyone actually look at the domestic economy and the strong fundamentals backing it? Myopic views. How many staunch positions these past many years has been reversed based on real passing of time and events? not many. that’s why so few can make money long term in this market. You NEVER take a strong position and excuse its failure on a manic bubble developing.

      Debt has never imploded before in a zero rate environment and I suspect it will not here.
      As long as the domestic fundamentals are holding up vey well we will not experience another bursting of a bubble. The sideways action these last 12 months testified to the fact that the market is rational here. Jobs, wage growth, tight labor market, very low unemployment payouts, steady uptick in housing, low commodity costs, low borrowing costs, conservative business activity. I am of course ONLY pointing out the one-sided reasons for continued strength in our economy. There are dozens of reasons why it could all fall apart. You must decide if those reasons are more influential today or less. I look at overseas problems as the driver for future problems, not domestic. Will China continue to slow or reverse? Same with EU and Asia. How much worse does their economies have to get to further affect us here in USA?

      Keep it real! Distortion of technical and fundamental issues never help. There is a rational market churn these last 12 months. No silly notion of conspiracies and manipulation. Supply/demand, world cash inflow vs outflow. Competition for that money.

      Eventually we will see the saturation of debt once again cause world wide disruptions. You must decide on a scenario(s) that would account for such an event. Todays environment seems unlikely to cause it.

    • skmcobra says:

      BUT Newbie, I was saying exactly the same thing in 2013/14 and missed some of the largest growth years in the SPX’s history, just sitting in cash waiting for the next crash. I have learned not to bet against the market.

      • LBSPYtrader says:

        Agree skm. I listened to H Dent back in 2010 saying the DOW was going to 3000 and never got fully invested. I learned a valuable lesson.

    • simpleiam says:

      Newbie, nobody here can help but realize it, because you post it over, and over, and over… You and also johnny have created a Chicken Little effect.

  20. It’s very irresponsible here to suggest new ATH’s in a matter of days/weeks after a 1 year trading range with heavy composite profile balance and HVN near the current ES level after a 280 pt rally from the low in 2 months. The odds shift to a 4-5% correction at a minimum and possibly a long term bear market if the 2020 level starts breaking down imho


    • stcoleridge says:

      HVN ??

    • vivelaamo says:

      1 year trading range and it’s right at the top building up some more steam. You might get some choppiness over the next few days,maybe even a week or so but this is going to explode to the up side and won’t look back.

      TC will soon be labelling this as bull market continues with the recent move down P4. Mark my words.

    • skmcobra says:

      I would agree but put the 1990/95 level as more of the breaking down point.

  21. Right on, Dow. Just broke through prior local high – which some labeled as the ‘truncation high’. A few days ago I believe it was EL_MATT who took exception to it earlier.

    DJIA (Daily)  8_4_2015 - 4_18_2016a


    • ajaysinghi says:


      So, you have never seen a B wave exceed the previous impulse high??



      • There was no ‘previous impulse’ as there were not five wave up that fit the definition of five waves up. See diagram below. In order to be counted as a truncation, while wave 5 might not cross up over 3; the internal wave v of 5 ‘does’ have to cross up over iii of 5. Sorry, but the truncation count is now clearly disproved, on the DOW, anyway. Primary V, only; end of discussion.



    • Sorry,but the prior local is in the lower top,isn’t it?thanks

  22. vivelaamo says:

    2105 to be hit in the next few day. New ATH by next week.

    • No.

      ES 2092 HVN gonna be stiff resistance that need a lot of horizontal work to balance and break out above…think months!!! 2106 ES is all time contract high…so we are within a 10-20 handle ATH resistance.

      Meanwhile better odds of a swift 4-5% sell off down to 2020 LVN level and a sideways balance for weeks.

  23. bud67 says:

    1:15pm est Went Short via SDS at 18.33 – no stops in place
    right now. But, would use 18.20, if I did, but I did not apply a stop.

  24. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I know you bulls want to clamor about not reading the news and trade what the market is giving you and blah blah blah but you have to admit this rally with no retracement with the risk out there (and chart resistance) is a bit ridiculous right now. Come on

    • magnus1234 says:

      After many years of trading I have learnt one thing that guides me. I never define myself as a Bull nor as a Bear. That has served me very well. Try it.

    • We are entering the bubble phase looks normal to me

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        what I totally disagree with that statement is look at the last two bubbles – dot com and real estate. prices and revenue and optimism and revenue kept increasing and you really had no prevalent risks out there except two things………….things were not sustainable and there was fluff involved but at least the data was raging. When fundamentals started to deteriorate you had prices follow. there may have been a lag between fundamentals and price but fundamentals influenced in the end. Here you have a third bubble based on QE but there is no more QE there is lots of pessimism and earnings stink and risks are abound and prevalent already. Price and fundamentals have diverged for an incredible period of time. To me the bubble has been here for a year now. I could see Lucent’s sales raging on telecom and equipment revenue raging but as soon as dot com started to deteriorate prices followed. To me the fact that prices are near all time highs IS THE BUBBLE. To think this market has valuations expand even more (they have expanded in the last year) on crap is making a bet that is unwise. if earnings start growing fine but companies are being squeezed. Bubble phase? You have had a buble on top of a bubble already. To say it should be more of a bubble is pushing it

    • lbhkinqa says:

      You sound like you’re in the 1st stage of grief (shock) 🙂

      Yours, a bear (currently in 2nd stage – denial)

    • vivelaamo says:

      It’s been ridiculous for years. If you can’t beat them join them.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        its beyond ridiculous. I totally get prices going higher when things are good disregarding valuations. I understand QE rallies. I understand fundamentals diverging from price for periods of time but the negatives are all over the place and the fundamentals have diverged now for a year. Its not so much the liquidity fuel or the price strength that surprise me but the lack of risk pricing. No pricing of risk when risk is everywhere and that lack of pricing has existed for a LONG time. That seems like a new one to me. Of course there are new things all the time.

  25. bud67 says:

    If your a trader, especially short term. My
    comments are “not for you”…I feel, critical to
    know the commentators, investment time horizon
    is – well – probably not going to get that info. Now.
    For me – I am an investor, at minimum a swing trader.
    An example. would be from waves one thru five. In
    my view. Note, thus, Not going to continue
    comments from this writer. Make no mistake,
    I am of the view of Mr. C – Bear Market. Now,
    I own OIL just below $7, This investment time
    horizon 2-5 years….end

    • bud67 says:

      One more interesting point. The SP
      high of 2135, I feel, is solid. Plan,
      is to get short soon, using SH – rather conservative
      investment. That’s all…

  26. phil1247 says:


    pushing thru downtrend line now

    • Bob Sagget says:

      Good post Fiona. It is tragic that we (tax payers) are not afforded the courtesy of notification as to when/how the money supply resumed it’s expansion bye the Fed in 2016. I welcome being corrected here but last I checked a Fed statement of “no longer raising rates 4 times in 2016” is not the same as “we are conducting QE and not telling you.”

    • fotis2 says:

      Thanks F nice one 2070..

    • Holly Silver says:

      At what point is this considered a continuation of the bull run? Since there is an adamant consensus that we are in a secular bear trend I would like to know what it would take to convince otherwise? If we get anything over a 100 percent retrace would than be convincing enough? Earnings seem to be factored in here. China seems to be starting to accelerate in economic activity. With such a tight labor market here and low inflation, along with limited domestic impact from overseas problems, when will we start seeing real economic growth in both fundamentals and earnings? Me, I believe it will occur very soon and 2 more rate hikes will be warranted. Double bottom? So far it looks like it.

  27. uncle10 says:

    Thanks Tony. the grain markets have been great! still waiting for nat gas to base and start its uptrend…
    gl all.

  28. captbara says:

    Oil in 3 of 3 up?

  29. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY ~ WR2 @ 209.73 ~ MR2 @ 209.96
    GL ALL

  30. steplaland says:

    This market is on drugs. Out.

  31. phil1247 says:

    took profits on UPRO @66.05

    11: 30 reversal period here

    maybe rebuy on pullback for next upward surge to target

  32. purplember says:

    stockcharts.com – do others on here have issues with it ? at times it works fine. then it will be so slow….changing ticker symbol or minute chart can take 30-45 seconds to change (which feels like eternity)

  33. ABchart says:

    ES: need 10/12 points pullback from this high (2084.25) before a marginal high of 10/12 points.

    Something like: 2084.25 > 2072 > 2096 (+/-2 points)

  34. Millan Tomic says:

    VIX divergence, potentially forming RS of IHS or DB bottoming formation, Crude at critical support within wedge like formation, NAS100 losing relative steam….With so much event risk next 8 trading sessions , resolution should be imminent

  35. locanbbs says:

    Euro/USD update: 5 waves overlapping –

  36. captbara says:

    ES daily 13 ema support

  37. micky says:

    Just popping in to see if we got 2090/2100 yet, ciao again.

  38. mrtraderguy says:

    Keep in mind, many people on this board have been shorting since the low 1900s – they missed out on the greatest rebound in the history of the stock market – and then they kept shorting all the way up AND they are still shorting though most regulars seem to have lost all their money as they no longer post here anymore. I feel for them.

  39. ABchart says:

    This scenario is still in play. But I think the high of the day is done at 2083 or excess at 2085. Support now at 2070.

  40. learner3078 says:

    Hi Tony, do u think iv and v just completed, just a quick burst to finish it, is this something possible technically? I agreed with your call this has been a bear rally, but what do you think can be the catalyst that trigger the next downdraft?

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