The market started the week at SPX 2048. After a gap up opening on Monday the SPX hit 2063. Tuesday it pulled back to SPX 2040, and then had another gap up opening on Wednesday that carried the SPX to 2088 by Thursday. Friday the market pulled back and ended the week at SPX 2081. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.70%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.65%, and the DJ World gained 2.50%. Economic reports for the week came in mixed. On the downtick: import prices, the PPI, retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer sentiment, plus the budget deficit widened. On the uptick: export prices, the CPI, the NY FED, the GDPN, the WLEI, Investor sentiment, plus weekly jobless claims improved. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the Philly FED, Leading indicators and Housing.
LONG TERM: bear market
We continue to count the 2009 bull market as having ended in 2015. We were expecting five Primary waves for a Cycle  bull market, and five primary waves unfolded. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary waves III, IV and V completed in 2015. After that high the market corrected into February which we labeled Major wave A. Since then the market has rallied in a Major wave B uptrend. While the uptrend has been quite strong in price and market breadth, we see no reason to change the count at this time. B waves can sometimes look just like bull markets in price and market breadth, as many stocks rebound from oversold lows.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
The uptrend that began in mid-February has now completed its second month. The advance began at SPX 1810, and has now reached SPX 2088. Quite a strong uptrend. Despite the surge, and impulsive type of activity, we continue to count the advance as a corrective B wave. After a review of the waves we now see 11 significant waves during this advance. Five overlapping waves for Intermediate A, an Intermediate wave B pullback, and again five overlapping waves for Intermediate wave C. These three Int. waves make up the Major wave B uptrend.
As noted on the daily chart above Int. A topped at SPX 2009, Int. B bottomed at SPX 1969, and Int. C is still underway. The five waves for Int. A: 1947-1891-1963-1932-2009. The five waves for Int. C: 2057-2022-2075-2034-2088 thus far. In both waves this pattern displays a strong first wave, then weaker and overlapping third and fifth waves. In fact, at SPX 2092, just within the 2085 pivot range, Int. C equals 0.618 Int. A. Medium term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots.
The pattern described above is detailed a bit more on the hourly chart. Intermediate waves A and C divided into the Minor waves. And then, Minor wave C in each, dividing further into three Minute waves. This could explain why this uptrend has continued to extend. Each of these rising waves has looked impulsive. Even the rally from SPX 2022-2075 subdivided into five clear waves. And the current rally from SPX 2032 appears to be doing the same. Currently we count three waves up from the SPX 2032 low: 2061-2040-2088 with the 4th wave possibly underway now. When this short term pattern concludes the uptrend should conclude as well.
We continue to see negative divergences on the daily RSI/MACD with decreasing volume on the weekly chart. There is a cluster of overhead resistance from the 2085 pivot on up: SPX 2104, SPX 2116, and the 2131 pivot. Short term support remains at the 2070 and 2043 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral.
The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week gaining 3.6%.
The European markets were all higher gaining 3.8%.
The Commodity equity group were all higher gaining 3.3%.
The DJ World index gained 2.5%.
Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.3%.
Crude continues to uptrend and gained 5.2%.
Gold looks like its in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.
The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.5%.
Monday: the NAHB at 10am. Tuesday: Building permits and Housing starts. Wednesday: Existing home sales. Thursday: the ECB meets, weekly Jobless claims, the Philly FED, the FHFA and Leading indicators. Best to your weekend and week!