SHORT TERM: new uptrend high, DOW +18
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were generally flat overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 253K v 267k, and the CPI was reported higher: +0.1% v -0.2%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2082 close. At 9:30 FED governor Powell’s: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20160414.htm. The market pulled back to SPX 2078 by 10am, and then began to rally. Around 1pm the SPX hit 2088. Then a speech from FED governor Brainard was released: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20160414a.htm, and the market started to pullback. At 2:30 the market hit SPX 2081, then bounced to close at 2083.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Industrial production at 9:15, Consumer sentiment at 10am, and its Options expiration Friday.
The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back, made a new uptrend high at SPX 2088, then drifted down for the rest of the day. Fairly quiet for a Thursday before options expiration. The three waves up from SPX 2032 remains in play: 2061-2040-2088. Would expect a notable pullback soon, then another new high to complete this short term rally. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2104. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence. Trade what is in front of you!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market