Thursday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend high, DOW +18

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were generally flat overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 253K v 267k, and the CPI was reported higher: +0.1% v -0.2%. The market opened two points above yesterday’s SPX 2082 close. At 9:30 FED governor Powell’s: The market pulled back to SPX 2078 by 10am, and then began to rally. Around 1pm the SPX hit 2088. Then a speech from FED governor Brainard was released:, and the market started to pullback. At 2:30 the market hit SPX 2081, then bounced to close at 2083.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.05%. Bonds lost 11 ticks, Crude slipped 30 cents, Gold dropped $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2131 pivots. Tomorrow: Industrial production at 9:15, Consumer sentiment at 10am, and its Options expiration Friday.

The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back, made a new uptrend high at SPX 2088, then drifted down for the rest of the day. Fairly quiet for a Thursday before options expiration. The three waves up from SPX 2032 remains in play: 2061-2040-2088. Would expect a notable pullback soon, then another new high to complete this short term rally. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 pivot and SPX 2104. Short term momentum displays a negative divergence. Trade what is in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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219 Responses to Thursday update

  1. sixpack says:

    Look at the smallcaps and midcaps just keep chugging on. They have some catching up to do don’t they. Very nice!

  2. jhjoyner says:

    Pull tha damn peach

  3. NINJA SHADE says:

    Since the 2088 top the decline is nothing impulsive and all about corrective. Expecting a HH early next week above the DTL then a hard reverse, dont see this as the start of C wave…

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    As CNBC notes, Apple’s stock is seeing a noticeable afternoon dive following a supply chain report that iPhone production will remain reduced from April through June. Nikkei Asian Review issued the report earlier today:

    Slow sales of the flagship iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus, which debuted last autumn, have forced Apple to adjust inventories. It lowered production for the January-March quarter by about 30% from the year-earlier period. With sales still sluggish, the U.S. company has told parts suppliers in Japan and elsewhere that it will maintain the reduced output level in the current quarter.

    Apple issued guidance earlier this year to expect a slow down in iPhone sales during this quarter for a number of reasons. The latest supply chain report highlighting continued reduced iPhone production further suggests that sales in the following quarter may remain relatively underwhelming for Apple.

    Ok I am done posting – have a great day everyone

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I am sure bulls will love this

    So what did it take for the hourly RSI to get to oversold conditions??? .25% drop and that was triple negative divergence on the hourlys

    I have to say this is not acting like a bear rally. Still assuming there is a retracement but at what level does it start and how much does it drop. What if this just keeps going up and then retraces to like 2040 or 2070 or something silly like that. The what is the point in fighting this? So many days technically and fundamentally I believed there would be a drop and just no drop. Just shaking my head.

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    THE TRUTH on 2 largest economies

    S&P500 earnings
    2011 96.44
    2012 96.82
    2013 107.30
    2014 113.01
    2015 106.32
    2016 (around 100)

    so after 2 QE’s S&P500 earnings will be 5% higher after 5 years yet the market has essentially doubled. Dividends have averaged 2% a year so take that into consideration but think about those numbers.

    Now lets think about the US buybacks and how much of that earnings growth is attributable to earnings.

    Of interest is in 2010 buybacks were approximately 30% of net income. Now they are approximately 70% of net income (page 7 of 17). Ok that is just net income so let’s look at cash flow instead after dividends (page 8 of 17). In 2010 it was less than 50% Now it is over 100% In 2010 35 companies of the S&P 500 exceeded its cash flow (8 of 17). Now it is 150 companies.

    CHINA GDP (I keep hearing how China stabilized this past quarter)
    Official GDP numbers:
    2007 14.2 Q313 7.9
    2008 9.6 Q414 7.6
    2009 9.2 Q114 7.3
    2010 10.6 Q214 7.4
    2011 9.5 Q314 7.2
    2012 7.7 Q415 7.2
    2013 7.7 Q115 7.0
    2014 7.3 Q215 7.0
    2015 6.9 Q315 6.9
    1stQ 16 6.7 Q415 6.8
    Q116 6.7

    Now of course we are talking about the Chinese here. So let’s discuss the Li Keqiang Index. What is this you ask?

    (From the Wall Street Journal) It is estimated that China GDP is close to 5%

    Make your own conclusions

  7. mrtraderguy says:

    Market had a lot of reasons to go down today, but just nothing. Can’t even hit the first lower pivot. Hmmmm

  8. mrtraderguy says:

    “Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots”

  9. phil1247 says:


    guess what???

    we have completed a 15 min short and now are working on the second one

    bad news for bears is that the target does not break the ext long

    at 2067.5 es / 2074 spx

    if we go thru target and break 2074…bears can rejoice finally

  10. So, here is the DOW 2-hr chart. I’ve looked it over quite a few times now, and feel this is the best count for the present. There is only the tiniest of truncation for wave (v) of 3 at the double-hit of the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The amazing points to note from a traditional EW perspective, are that Minor 4 comes back to exactly the minute wave iv (circle iv) location, and wave Minor 5 finds it’s resistance at the mid-channel line. Waves 4 (as a zigzag), and wave 2 (as a flat) have good alternation, waves 4, and 2 are the same ‘depth’ of correction, and wave 5 is occurring on divergence of the EWO.

    DOWI - Two Hourly - Apr-15 1302 PM (2 hour)


  11. mrtraderguy says:

    The market is currently a retail trader’s nightmare. Stocks seem too expensive and look like they will drop significantly, yet when they short the market they keep losing money (unless they are very, very quick and can make a little with minor pullbacks).

  12. fishonhook says:

    TA is like life after death.
    We all want to believe in it, even when there is no evidence for it
    At least TA only harms your pocket book..

    • lunker1 says:

      unfortunately for some it does take a minimal level of intelligence to pull it off. just being able to hit the Enter button on a blog doesn’t qualify.

    • ABchart says:

      I pity your wife and your cat! 😩

      • fishonhook says:

        Then you and Lunker must be so rich because you are both so wise and understand the mysteries of EW and TA and are only trying to confuse us with your posts that don’t pan out.
        Bravo we were fooled into thinking you were in fact fools and not geniuses.

    • vivelaamo says:

      TA has screamed go long and BTD for weeks. It’s getting sucked in to looking at the fundementals that’s screwed the Bears.

  13. rigged09 says:

    Small Caps IWM is holding well. This is not lead to market sell off.

  14. Tony Jordan says:

    Agree with Francesca on the near term count … b of 4 of 5 of 3. Narrow range but a test of the daily highs followed by a test of the lows could do it. I think worst case 2075 or something else is going. To be followed by another rise to a slightly HH and then another larger 4 to follow likely making the market quite choppy for the next week or so. Quick Draw McGraw needed to cope with Whipsaw 4.

  15. Just counting simply.
    Since Simple is Complicated.

    • Should have been a lot of puts and also calls just at resistance. I suppose judge numbers, strangles and straddles. All will expires at zero, and the writers will bank

  16. NEWBIE says:

    Is anyone here not looking for a higher high here, it seems even most bears are looking for another high to 2090-2100 area

    • mrtraderguy says:

      Unlikely today – the market will make everyone hold over the weekend to find out what is in store next week. Shorts should be most fearful in my opinion. Longs might lose a little on a quick pullback. Who knows. Will continue to churn slowly upward until the next leg up with lots of “tops” to pull in more bears.

      • NEWBIE says:

        lol, after a 270 point run up on spx ,,, bulls should be nervous not bears- the damage has already been done to bears

        • mrtraderguy says:

          Maybe. But when the market does not pullback it is because it does not want to give longs a chance to get in cheaply (except the junk stocks) and does not want to let shorts cover. It seems this will continue for a while. We’ll see.

    • fionamargaret says:

      2070, number given yesterday

  17. This is Wave 4 of the 5th of wave 3 of 1 of PV. Pegging day. opex classic. Than down not that much, actually B of 4, we need C.
    After the wave 5 of 5 of 3 of 1 of PV. Will be firework.
    After that, unfortunately an other 4 but larger degree. If I am wrong and this is all of wave 1, anyhow will be wave 2, just a little dipper but at least faster

    • locanbbs says:

      Hi, Francesca, Thanks for your positive remarks about my charts! Maybe we can work together, cause I’m not so good at waves. I see a shortterm bottom coming up. All indicators are reaching/approaching buy level. What’s the wave count now? What time do you expect it? Or can you “tell (EW) time”?
      Current chart (1 hour):

      • locanbbs says:

        Expect a bottom, I mean.

      • locanbbs says:

        What do you think the next uptrend will look like? How long, far, fast?

      • locanbbs says:

        2070 has just been reached. Support?

      • Hi Locan, sorry just read your message. Yes, very nice to work together .
        I am expecting a very minor pull back for the C of 4th, Monday and a sudden new high, could go to 2100 ES and more. This will go fast and last to end of the season (sell in May) and will complete Major 3
        After this a more substantial pull back for the Minor 4th wave of Major 1 of P V. followed by Minor wave 5 of Major w 1 to substantial new high before any dramatic pull back, And all timing/season would be respected, pull back to June, good summer, sad mid August and buoyant September.
        And if I am wrong there are 2 other possibilities.
        1. We had all of the Major 1 of the P V and we will have a substantial retrace followed by an amazing Major wave 3 high high and away
        2. Major 3 fractioning., consequently the last pull back could be no so huge, but high high and away will start sooner than expected.
        I will look at the chart tomorrow and post the level to watch

  18. Peter Sliney says:

    Did somebody turn off the bots? Do market robots take spring vacations?

  19. sixpack says:

    Regarding Warren and the comments below, yes, he always says things will get better. He knows that capitalism and freedom have a way of working things out. He knows that there are cycles too, but his theory of buying good companies at fair prices and then sticking with them through the cycles has fared well. If you buy right, then you don’t have to worry about the dips so much, especially with the dividends reinvesting. It’s been a good thing for me, I’ve learned a lot from him. My biggest problem is actually sitting still and holding the companies for the longrun.

    • purplember says:

      with the FED so involved in the market / controlling it and the true freedom of capitalism feeling like it is slipping away (good grief a socialist is most popular candidate with college kids ) year after year, doesn’t feel overly positive to me. i invest and play the game but it does feel rigged at time. FED way too much power with no one holding them accountable.

      I was 100% fundamentalist investor but crashes have made me doubt that and learn more TA. however, maybe TA doesn’t work either. kinda confused at moment. however i’ve done extremely well with real estate….maybe best to stick with that lol

      • sixpack says:

        Ya, it can be tough. I’ve tried to find what works for me and then use that. Like to keep my eye on both the TA and the fundamentals. Knowing that there is a bull market, and then buying the big selloffs can be a winner. Another is when you can identify the beginning of a 3rd wave. That’s where the big moves are with some relative confidence. Kinda like the one that is going to be setting up now. Let’s say we assume P5 for a moment. If we can find Major 2, then could be a good ride. Good luck!

      • vivelaamo says:

        TA is nothing without risk management. There was a 123 low on the Dow which needed a long with a 1000 point target. If a person completely ignored fundementals and noise it was the perfect trade. Oil had the same trade. So frustrating when you see it but don’t bloody trust it!

  20. ajaysinghi says:

    Mkt will become incredibility volatile next 2 weeks. One more high above 2088, 2100 to be precise is still pending before a large retracement.

  21. mrtraderguy says:

    Looks like the dip is done – time to go higher next week.

    • At what point do the analysts conclude we have years to go before we end this secular bull cycle? A break above 2130 on the SPX? While i do agree we are due for a decent drop I believe we have years to go before this Bull ends. In fact I think the next year or so we see accelerated moves up simply because the fundamental will all come together. Once China/EU start the accelrated path all ships will rise. China is already showing signs of restarting its acceleration. Domestically we are doing better than fine. Jobs, tight labor market, discretionary income all point to a storng finish. 2 rate hikes more this year is in the cards. Does anyone look at the fundamental signals? if jobs and wages continue to outpace inflation, spending increases and wage increases will follow. ALways has in the past. I believe that by the end of this year the street will solely be talking about fear of inflation going to high.

      • K-Tastic says:

        Gary, what datapoints are you referring to? What fundamental signals?

      • sixpack says:

        You bet I watch the fundamentals. Have too. Fundamentals rule. EWT complies with the fundamentals eventually. Right now the fundamentals are looking good. The ECRI Weekly leading index took another nice jump this week. People wonder why we didn’t get the big OEW selloff. It’s simple, the fundamentals did not keep deteriorating. In fact they are improving….therefore the market rallies from its oversold position in January.

        • Jimmy Porter says:

          In 12 years of trading I have never looked at fundamentals besides what I see on the news in regards to pmi, gdp, etc. But I forget about those by the next day. News is a short term reaction. I don’t money manage or hedge fund. I only trade for myself and don’t trade more than 100 contracts per trade unless I am very confident. I only trade futures so I guess fundamentals may work for stocks but I don’t trade those or options.

          • sixpack says:

            Interesting. You sound like a very successful futures trader. Not many people can say that. I tried that for a few years when I was younger and couldn’t make it work. Buffet style investing works better for me. Cheers to you!

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        You are drinking the kool aid if u think China is accelerating. You must be listening to CNBC and going by that

  22. Page says:

    Oil going higher next week, much higher.

  23. purplember says:

    anyone have a Oil chart ? thoughts on where it’s going

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