Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: higher open – market rallies, DOW +165

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.6%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.7%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 Export (+0.3% v -0.4%)/Import (-0.1% v -0.1%) prices were reported mixed. The market opened 4 points above yesterday’s SPX 2042 close, rallied to 2050 in the opening minutes and then pulled back to 2040 just past 10am. Then the market started to rally. With just one 4 point rally along the way the SPX hit 2065 just past 3pm. Then a pullback into the close ended the day at SPX 2062.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.95%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.80%. Bonds lost 14 ticks, Crude rallied $1.60, Gold was flat, and the USD was higher. Medium term support rises back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance again at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: CPI and Retail sales at 8:30, Business inventories at 10am, then the FED’s beige book at 2pm.

The market opened higher today, pulled back to below yesterday’s SPX 2042 low, then rallied to 2065 before pulling back some late. Since March 30th, when the SPX hit 2072, the market has remained in a choppy 2% trading range. Meanwhile the daily RSI/MACD negative divergences remain. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought again today during the rally. Trade what’s in front of you!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS:  https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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411 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. llerias7 says:

    NEW ATH IN SIGHT this month!

  2. phil1247 says:


    target hit

    took profits


  3. sp up 19 yesterday looks as if it will be up the same today, can they be up 19 again tomorrow, I gotta pay to see, Blackjack yet again? or another gambling anology, at this point im all in, gots to pay to see the river card,. Congrats bulls, I think its impressive

  4. Bob Sagget says:

    And the 12/29/15 $SPX high was $2,081.56

  5. vivelaamo says:

    I didn’t see this move coming. We are not topping out until we see ATH’s at the very least. Probably by the end of the week or latest next week. Back to BTFD. Chop chop chop flopped 😦

  6. locanbbs says:

    Last hour of trading. Time for the Smart Money to show their hand. Or do they wait until after hours these days?

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Treasuries getting bid up here

  8. phil1247 says:

    next ext long target is 2077 only 4 SPX points above the high

    taking profits there or on any weakness …re trader joes chart

  9. I realize that everyone here supposedly hates the idea of triangles, but here is the current five minute chart which counts properly, so far. What do you see? Keep in mind, so far, these are “running triangles” .. that tells us, with the higher b waves, the market ‘overall’ should still be in bull mode. To quote Geico, “that’s what higher b waves do”. Even though risk is getting stretched right now (in my opinion), a pull back still has to be respected as part of a larger up trend because of these higher b waves, and the one of the larger running triangle on the previous 2 hr. chart.

    SPX - Five Minute - Apr-13 1414 PM (5 min)


  10. NEWBIE says:

    Mr. Caldaro,

    Where are you? Hope all is well…

    • stmro says:

      Mr Caldron has repeatedly reiterated his position and at what point the count gets invalidated. He has a system and he sticks to it so people should stop with the constant nagging.

      Personally I think his long term count is wrong, but being wrong in the markets is an expectation half of the time!

  11. Edwardo says:

    FWIW, today’s SPX high was a Fib 88.4 retrace of the move from the November high to the February low.

  12. rd3777 says:

    Short FB,AZO,MMM,IBM All in a position to make big runs down….I would short PCLN too!

    This wild market will end in a big bang for sure.

  13. short on oil for 3/4 dollar correction

  14. cj32 says:

    from CBZ, clear target.

  15. The way I am playing this move. Long in GC stops at 1240, Only few points. And not shorting anything.
    USO looks to have completed the wave 1 of 3rd, daily chart. Also will be a nice new long at the end of the 2 that from here would be around 10/9.80

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I just increased leveraged shorts again here. Huge short now. Now I am vulnerable but I think its a good calculated play

  17. This chart is just to re-emphasize the Eight Fold Path (which is my summary of how Bill Williams counts the Elliott Wave). With futures past the new high, Profit target #2 has been reached. So, while this is not trading or investment advice, in the ES 33 long example, if three lots were opened at 33, then one lot was closed at Profit target #1, described when price crossed the (d) wave of the triangle, yesterday, for a gain of 55 – 33 = 12 points. The second lot would now be closed at 70 – 33 = 37 points. That locks in a profit of 49 points.

    The third lot is discretionary. One would close it depending on the perceived risk of being 1) at the combination of the upper Bollinger Bands, and 2) having a new high in market that diverges with Money Flow (CMF), or 3) leave it open to see if a 5 = 1 occurs. My personal opinion (not trading or investment advice – just an opinion) is that short term risk is getting quite high, and close it which would lock in an additional 37 points of profit, and allow one to sleep well to look for a short set-up.

    SPX - Two-Hourly - Apr-13 1234 PM (2 hour)


  18. Under 2064, ES the 2 has started and will be the wave A of it. Over the high of the day means the 5th is fractioning as well. But don’t think, since waves 5 are rug pulling all the way

  19. pooch77 says:


  20. valunvstr says:

    It is totally laughable how many people on so many boards are capitulating. I agree this is not a bear market due to breadth and the vix, however, the stops that people have in at 2075 is borderline hilarious. Just at the 1812 low got taken out by 2 points and people got stopped out there, this is not all that different. Everyone is calling mercy at the same stupid meaningless price point. 2080-2100 sure looks to be in the cards but the divergence that are finally forming say that were are in an area that a trader should start to look at shorting, not covering.

  21. NEWBIE says:

    OFF to New Highs, vote in the poll below, Let’s see where were at.


  22. mjtplayer says:

    VIX daily BB’s are getting tighter and tighter, now just 330bps. The last 2 times the VIX daily BB’s were as tight as now was the 2nd week of Nov and mid-Aug. The coiled spring is getting ready to pop….

  23. sixpack says:

    Looks like the financials are trying to join the party. Check out XLF.

  24. “Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 6.6 million-barrel climb in crude-oil supplies for the week ended April 8. That topped the 6.2 million-barrel increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute, and was more than six times higher than the climb of 1 million barrels expected by analysts polled by Platts.

    But the data also revealed that domestic oil production fell to 8.977 million barrels a day, down 31,000 from a week earlier”.
    —AP report
    As I ve said…they can t cut the rigs fast enough to lower crude inventories.The gas supplies are being used up faster but in spite of that particular drawdown,crude inventories continue to rise.But traders are ignoring that again.

  25. learner3078 says:

    Hi Tony, if today marks the top of the B wave, after 2 months, what would be the projections for the C wave down and time-frame. Does 1650 in late June (around the Brexit vote) fit within your counts? Just interested to hear your thoughts..

  26. aahmichael says:

    I am now short again at 2078. While it’s still possible that it gets to 2090, I don’t see it going beyond that.

    • timmy321 says:

      I have been reading your comments and seeing your trades. Initially held on to your short trade looking for a terminal move to 1600 and then you covered it more than a 100 points from the bottom. Your logic was that you are a trend trader. Now I am seeing that you jump in and get stopped out on the short side on a daily basis. Don’t think you have any clue what you are doing? Nada.

      • aahmichael says:

        You’re obviously welcome to your opinion, but my trading style and strategy has never changed. Just like I got short several times during the October rally, before eventually nailing the top, I have done the same during this rally. Just because a person is a position trader, that doesn’t mean he has to hold a position if the market is going to go against him.

    • aahmichael says:

      Just put the other half position on at 2086. Now short a full position at 2082 average.

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