weekend update


The week started at SPX 2073. After an attempt to make new uptrend highs on Monday the market pulled back to SPX 2043 by Wednesday morning, then rallied to 2061 in the afternoon. Thursday’s gap down opening took the market down to SPX 2034. Friday had a gap up opening carrying the market to SPX 2061. Then the market reversed to end the week at 2048. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.2%, the NDX/NAZ lost 1.3%, and the DJ World index lost 0.7%. On the economic front reports came in even. On the uptick: ISM services, consumer credit, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: factory orders, wholesale inventories, the GDPN, plus the trade deficit widened. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Industrial production, the FED’s beige book and the CPI.

LONG TERM: bear market

While many of the world’s markets have dropped 20% to 25% from their 2015 highs. The SPX/DOW have only declined 15%, and have recently rebounded to within a few percent of their all time high. As a result, many have questioned our bear market call and rightly so. No system, or methodology is perfect. And even if the method is quantified, it still takes an imperfect being to interpret it. With this in mind, investors should make their own decisions, and not rely on others to make these decisions for them.


We continue to interpret the market activity since December as the beginning of a bear market. The expected five Primary wave bull market, Cycle wave [1], ended in December 2015. Since then the market sold off to its lowest level in two years. Then rebounded within 3% of the all time high just over one week ago. Quite a volatile market after four years of corrections no larger than 10%, and trending uptrends. Just look at the weekly chart. While looking you may note that volume, which we rarely even look at, has been declining throughout this entire uptrend. During the bull market, uptrends after steep selloffs have displayed at least steady even volume.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening

With this Major B wave uptrend now two months old we continue to see signs of a topping pattern. Both the daily RSI and MACD are displaying the typical negative divergences that often accompany uptrend highs, and both have already turned down. The risk-on mentality of rising world markets, rising commodity prices, and declining bond prices, have begun to reverse. Thirty percent of the foreign markets we track and sixty percent of the commodity sectors are in confirmed downtrends, plus Bonds are in an uptrend. As risk-off strengthens the current uptrend should continue to weaken.


We are still labeling this Major wave B as three Intermediate waves: 1947-1891-2075. Intermediate wave C is currently about 34% longer than Int. A (184 pts. v 137 pts.). A bit of an odd relationship, but it has subdivided several times. While there are several possible counts for this uptrend we posted the one most preferred. With the market running into resistance at the 2070 pivot this past two weeks, we continue to see lots of overhead resistance. For now we post the current range with support at the 2043 and 2019 pivots and resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots.


While the daily indicators have been displaying a potential top the market has been working its way lower. From the SPX 2075 uptrend high the market declined in three waves to SPX 2034: 2043-2067-2034. Then on Friday it hit a high, after a gap up opening, of SPX 2061 before closing the gap when reaching 2042 in the last hour of trading.


To keep the momentum going to the downside the market needs to drop below SPX 2034, before exceeding SPX 2061. Then reach and break the 2019 pivot range. This would display the largest decline since the uptrend began back in mid-February, and likely suggest a new downtrend is well underway. Any rally above SPX 2061, before breaking 2034, could suggest the uptrend is extending yet again. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week around neutral.


Asian markets were all lower on the week for a net loss of 0.9%.

European markets were mostly lower for a net loss of 0.8%.

The Commodity equity group were mixed and gained 0.5%.

The DJ World index lost 0.7% on the week.


Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 0.5%.

Crude is still in an uptrend and gained 8.4%.

Gold appears to be in a downtrend but gained 1.7%.

The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.4%.


Tuesday: Export/Import prices and the Budget deficit. Wednesday: the PPI, Retail sales, Business inventories and the FED’s beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, the CPI, and Senate testimony from FED  governor Powell. Friday: the NY FED, Industrial production, Consumer sentiment and Options expiration. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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412 Responses to weekend update

  1. Possible formation of shoulder head shoulder on the daily chart of the Dow Jones

    click on the link below to see the review


  2. vivelaamo says:

    Perfect close for shorts

  3. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Can you say rounding top?

  4. phil1247 says:

    dont be caught off guard by huge gap up in dollar ann gaps down in gold and oil

  5. kingfrogcash says:

    I think we have another splash on the par 3

  6. blackjak100 says:

    Well if this triangle plays out in $SPX cash…it was called perfectly by TJ first and then I added it needed to hit 2062-2064 by this PM to have right look. It can be considered complete now and just a matter of how low wave e wants to go. It becomes invalid at 2034. I wonder if we close near LOD and then blast off tomorrow???

  7. vivelaamo says:

    Hope this closes down.

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    GDP goes from 1.4 to .7 to .1 in weeks but it doesn’t mean anything lol

    people are in denial – never seen anything like it

    • NEWBIE says:

      crash an new world currency coming?

      • what kind of crash you expect? It would take maybe 20%+ for FED and CB to get back with more action, to stabilize the markets, but then is back to the old tricks. USD cannot be wiped off overnight, low possibility with so many CB invested via their reserves into USD. Before they lose it all, they will try some desperate moves.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          Japs crossed the desperation line already, Europeans and Chinese are getting there and Americans I surmise will get there eventually

    • EL MATADOR says:

      from 2.7 on Feb 12th to 0.1 on friday april 8th. it took just less then two month for govt to admit GDP sucks

  9. phil1247 says:


    ext long is holding by a fingernail at 1257

    if if fails ..look for swoosh down

  10. Peter Sliney says:

    Days like today will slice and dice you. I’ll analyze and try again tomorrow.

  11. phil1247 says:

    T ony

    looks like the trannies are now in a downtrend

    your chart has it lableled as uptrend

    do you agree downtrend now??

  12. learnedmylesson25 says:

    The formula for all this is keeping bond yields down.Negative rates around the world keeps our rates falling.This gives the bond/stock yield ratio a buy for stocks.Ingenious.Also boosts gold worldwide.That part of it I like.Still,none of this is legit–but its working–until a country rebels against it all…someone like Japan.I m sure it’s all choreographed as much as it can be but the outlier is Japan imho.They could cause trouble.No one wants a dollar rally at this point.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      like we discussed …. mario and abe say, “I’ll print more helicopter money,” …. Yell’en fires back and says, “oh yeah, then I won’t raise rates, maybe I’ll convince my team to lower rates”…. game of gotcha suc’ka

  13. H D says:

    GM Tony! Looks like a lot of data coming in this week. Thanks for the weekend update.

  14. All of the needed waves for a triangle are present, including a potential (e) wave retrace back under wave iii or 3. But triangles are ‘extremely’ tricky to count, and we may have only made wave i, up of C of (d) to try to make the 0.764 level. In the case where we are in i, up, of C of (d), a downward retrace should not go beyond the start of wave i; otherwise it is still most likely the (e) wave. This can be determined on a shorter term chart (like 30-min) should you chose.

    Triangles take time and are prone to frequent shipsaws – even if they play out properly. So, patience and flexibility still needed.



    • .. pls move the b wave marker to the black bar at the right, b was a small double zz lower. Thanks in advance.

    • H D says:

      Hi ET, from 3/24 low SPX 22.49 there is a clean 5 wave impulse to 75.07, then a clean C=A down to 33.80. SPX has gapped up twice now from that low. That gives this rise a potential terminal pattern already. Just an easier, different, way to define the wave for us that don’t like triangles IMO.

      • aahmichael says:

        That impulse count from the 3/24 low doesn’t work in DOW, OEX, XMI, or NYA, as they all had 4th wave overlaps. Having said that, I’m still counting everything as a terminal, however, I’m starting at the 3/10 low of 1969.

      • Hi H-D .. somewhat agree. I mentioned previously the triangle may be playing out on futures, because of the extra night time hours. Cash ‘may’ have started an impulse up. But it still ‘looks’ like a triangle on cash. In other words there is no massive third wave up yet which does not have overlaps.

        The reason I don’t agree fully is there are just a total of five simple Elliott Wave patterns: impulse, diagonal, flat, zigzag triangle. A good Elliottician (imho) needs to deal with all five of them. Like, for example, TC has clearly used diagonals in his counts. Yet, even though they are a ‘type’ of triangle, he says in previous posts OEW doesn’t look for triangles. Why not? But yet OEW ‘does’ look for triangles .. just diagonal ones? Seems to be a logical inconsistency to me.

        • H D says:

          I’m not too hung up on the vocabulary OEW uses. As far as triangles, not diagonals, I haven’t seen a triangle work, SPX, since the ’09 low, on a major or even intermediate wave that didn’t have an easier way to count it.

        • blackjak100 says:

          It now looks like there are enough waves in place to consider triangle complete in $SPX cash. It’s just a matter how much lower wave e goes. Close near the lows today and blast off tomorrow?

  15. NINJA SHADE says:

    GM, potentially intraday IHS developing here. needs to blast off past the neckline at 205.25ish.

  16. pooch77 says:

    Just gonna say,Yellen blow up bears this afternoon

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Last three times hourly RSI got into overbought conditions

    S&P 2075, 2067, and now 2,063 today

    not amazing news for bear but somewhat encouraging to see lower prices on overbought rallies

    we shall see

  18. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony!
    Will the trigger will be before April 17 OPEC meeting ?

  19. stmro says:

    Early morning highs followed by afternoon sell-offs = change in market character = potential change in short term trend. It’s certainly looking weaker.

  20. NEWBIE says:

    I love my physical gold and silver, to da moon they will go.

    • simpleiam says:

      Problem is that you can’t eat it, or get proper change for it in the grocery store. Just like a silver dollar. It’s still only $1 if you’re paying for items in Target, etc.

  21. purplember says:

    GDP. forecast out 4-6 months is always better than reality. market keeps chasing the carrot….gonna get better. how long are we going to watch this film

    • learnedmylesson25 says:

      Actually,long after the fact (2 years),GDP is usually lowered.Long after it doesn t matter.

  22. learnedmylesson25 says:

    Last week I pointed out 10day MACD on GdX had crossed to the upside and if it did as the last time–would go to 22.20.Now the daily wants to cross up.Still,short term overbought on GDX (which doesn t mean much unless Japan intervenes on the yen).Good luck all.

  23. phil1247 says:


    looks ripe for upward reversal no matter what the fed says today

    gold and oil should plunge at 11:30 reversal period when dollar soars

    lets see if its fatal or a buying opportunity…

  24. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    Here is some more worthless technical analysis. 😉


  25. Dollar looks to be heading to 90.
    Gold cracking 1300
    Gdx 26
    Nugt 110

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