SHORT TERM: quiet open then rally, DOW +113
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and the market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 2045 close. In the first hour of trading the market pulled back to the 2043 pivot again, and then started to rally. At 1:30 the SPX hit 2063 ahead of the FED’s FOMC minutes: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20160316.htm. After the minutes were released the market had pulled back to SPX 2053 by 2:30, reversed, and moved even higher. In the last hour of trading the market hit SPX 2067 and closed there.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.85%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude rose $1.95, Gold dropped $7, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.
The market opened slightly higher today, pulled back to exactly the 2043 pivot, and then rallied for the rest of the day. Again the 2043 pivot provided support, and is becoming an important pivot for this uptrend. In the mean time, early signs of risk-off continue to appear. Thirty percent of foreign markets have confirmed downtrends, sixty percent of the commodity sectors have confirmed downtrends, and Bonds are uptrending. Short term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum hit overbought during today’s rally. Trade what’s in front of you, but invest on what you believe is ahead.
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market