SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -134
Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.0%. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0% as well. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down to SPX 2055 at the open. The SPX had closed at 2066 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market dropped to SPX 2045, and then started to work its way higher. At 10am ISM services was reported higher: 54.5 v 53.4. The market then hit SPX 2055 and began to pullback again. At 1pm the market retested SPX 2045, then rallied to 2054 by 3pm. Then the market pulled back to SPX 2043 before ending the day at SPX 2045.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds gained 14 ticks, Crude added 25 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: FOMC minutes at 2pm.
The market gapped down following selling in Asia and Europe to start the day. After several rallies back to the opening level at SPX 2055, the market ended the day at 2045. Thus far the 2043 pivot continues to act as support, as it has been doing for about a week. With today’s decline below SPX 2060, and then to 2043, the five wave rally from SPX 2022 appears complete. As for the uptrend. We do have a potentially completed pattern. But the market will need to break to the 2043 pivot range, and then the 2019 pivot range, to get momentum going to the downside. Currently 30% of the world’s markets are in confirmed downtrends, Bonds are in an uptrend, and some of the commodities are also confirming downtrends. This is just the opposite of what was occurring during the two month SPX uptrend. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day at oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend weakening
LONG TERM: bear market