Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet open market drifts lower, DOW -56

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.1%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.4%. US index futures were higher overnight, but the market opened two points below Friday’s SPX 2073 close. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -1.7% v +1.6%. Just past 11am the SPX hit 2065, bounced to 2072 by 12:30, then headed lower again. Heading into the last hour the SPX hit 2063, then bounced to close at 2066.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.45%. Bonds gained 7 ticks, Crude dropped $1.15, Gold slid $8, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance now at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the Trade deficit at 8:30, then ISM services at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today, tried to rally back to the uptrend high at SPX 2075, fell one point short, then pulled back for the rest of the day. Not much change on the short term count with today’s quiet trading. The trend remains up, and will not likely be threatened until the SPX drops to the 2043 and then the 2019 pivots. Currently, a drop below SPX 2060 may signal the first signs of weakness. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum remained around neutral most of the day. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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211 Responses to Monday update

  1. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Fast 40 $spx on the down from here next few days

  2. H D says:

    Can anyone give me the HOD and LOD for ES? Fibtastic

  3. fotis2 says:

    Well that will be a valid DT with closebellow 2044 is it really happening?? ….MY GOSH!

    • fotis2 says:

      And in the last 30seconds of play we have a remarkeble comeback from the Bull closing for 2045 ladies and gents have a nice wvening what a game!

      • Like someone said here a couple days ago. I could build a house on that foundation of 2043!!! either way, it looks as this correction has started. although it may end this friday. next week options expire and market may go higher.

        But i think we have seen the top. Tomorrow should be another down day.
        Still holding my shorts from last friday that were added, and I am now in the profit zone. hopefully i wont get to greedy and close them this week if the market continues this slow decay

  4. johnnymagicmoney says:

    F the Longs by JMM

    (as opposed to F the Po-lice by NWA)

    Right about now JMM court is in full effect
    Judge Money presiding
    In the case of JMM vs the Bulls
    Prosecuting attorneys are MC Short, and Grand Master VIX
    And Eazy-muthaf-ing TLT

    Order, order, order
    master VIX, take the muthaf-ing trade
    Do you swear to go short and stay short?
    And nothing but short so help you short arse?

    You g-damn right!
    Well won’t you tell those longs what you gotta f-in say?

    F the longs coming straight from the short side
    A young Magic Money got it bad cause I’m short
    And not the other side like you longs think
    They have the authority to kill the minority
    F that sheeeet, cause I’m short
    For a short muthaf-er with a trade and a short
    To beating on and squeezed from the shorts
    We can go toe to toe with the longs

    F-in with me cause Im a shortie
    With some VIX and some bonds
    Searchin my account looking for my trades
    Thinkin every shortie is the reason this sheet is droppin

    If I’m shortin and rollin and Ill be rollin in the money
    That I build out my shorties and then watch that beeetch drop
    Ill drive off laughin watchin it droppin
    This is what Ill say

    F the longs the Johnny Magic Money has found you guilty
    of a being a chickensheet muthafukka long
    I want justice I want justice watch you longs lose all ya money
    F you longs f you longs

    F the longs!!

  5. H D says:

    2 red days pretty rare! 3 red days? not since Jan?

    Oil decided to rally 1% after being down 11 days straight, SPX just doesn’t care 😆

    • Dex T says:

      Oil lead the way down. It’s taking a break today.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      tug-of-war (divergence) …. whom ever follows from here loses
      in other words those that believe in continuation of the existing bull market should be buying oil it cheap from those color rose glass …. those that believe in the bear should be shorting SPX since oil will eventually pull SPX down with it’s gravitational force … just my 2c

  6. Dex T says:

    Goldman Profit Estimates Cut Again as Analysts Project 45% Drop

    “Twenty-two analysts have lopped 94 cents off the average estimate for Goldman Sachs’s adjusted earnings per share over the past four weeks — the fourth straight quarter they’ve cut figures in the final days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This time, the 11th-hour reduction is among the largest for the firm since the financial crisis, with analysts now predicting its per-share profit will tumble 45 percent from a year earlier to $3.31 — the steepest decline among major U.S. banks.”

  7. kvilia says:

    TZA on 15 mins looking impulsive up and corrective down. We may get some fireworks soon.

  8. TMF says:

    DB….enough said

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      but they can make so much money in that negative rate environment!!!!!!!

      Hmmmm let me do the math

      I borrow at minus and then I lend out at minus and I get minus?????? Hmmmm let me try that again

      I borrow at minus then I lend at minus and I get…………………damn again I get minus

      ok something must be wrong. I borrow at minus and then I lend at minus and wait I cant believe it I keep getting f-ing minus!!!!!


  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    The rally up to 2116 the daily RSI never got below neutral once it crossed it just like this past rally up until today (lets see how the day closes). The MACD also rolling over finally. Whether its 2 of P5 or C of Primary A this should fall more intermediate term and I am guessing the short term highs are in at 2075 but you never know

  10. phil1247 says:

    / CLK6

    nice pop foreshadowed by ext short break discussed eariler

    added shorts on pop

  11. Page says:

    Two days of Markets consolidation will be over today. Tomorrow going higher. Oil will also move higher from here.

    • lcd00 says:

      It’s interesting when people make pronouncements as if they’re the Delphic Oracle; always telling rather than showing, sometimes try using IMHO, just a thought, especially for someone who’s been wrong way too much to lack the humble part.

      • They all play the same musical instrument. A 1 string bear market banjo You can average $700- 1000 a day day trading like the pros or continue to guess where turning points will occur. Of course this is only IMHO

    • vivelaamo says:

      Are you feeling the pain Page after going long at the top. School boy error!

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    the markets have dropped 1.5% from the recent top. O – M – G O – M – G

  13. This is just an example of why diagonals are so important. One can try to avoid them, one can stick one’s head in the sand. Or one can try to deal with them and what they say. So far, the ES and the SP500 made marginal (less than one point new lows). The DOW has not (yet) but could. Very possible “B” wave in progress. (Looks a bit short for any kind of flat second wave as of this point).

    SPX - Five Minute - Apr-05 1334 PM (5 min)

    Cheers and enjoy the chart!

    • captbara says:

      Looks like a good short for tomorrow morning.

    • Jimmy Porter says:

      You like to use ending diags. a lot in place I was taught not to use. Ending diag should only be used in c waves and 5th waves. Each to their own.
      I say we make marginal new lows on es around 2031 area to complete the expanded flat 4th wave then we rally for new rally highs.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I think he should change his name to DiagonalJoe

      • Here is yet another diagonal .. this is is ‘expanding’ ..which is ‘often, most usually’ an ending diagonal .. but it ‘can’ be leading. The thing is, the diagonal is already ‘proven’ by the break of the lower trend line, and the overlaps making otherwise upward counting almost impossible.

        SPX - Five Minute - Apr-05 1510 PM (5 min)

        Cheers! And enjoy the chart.

      • First, I ‘always’ look for 1, followed by a zigzag 2, and a wave three extension for an impulse. IF I can’t find it, next I always look for 1, followed by a flat 2, and a wave three extension for an impulse. IF I can’t find it, but have the right wave lengths, then I look for a diagonal. Always in that order…

        • H D says:

          Hi ET, I know you’re not looking for a conversation but you are also always looking for a zig zag to make your 1.. Just an observation.

          • Hi H-D .. I really don’t understand the comment. Can you explain? My preference is always to find an ‘impulse’ for 1: a non-overlapping five-wave sequence upward. I prefer counting impulses, but will deal with the ‘devil diagonals’ whenever I am forced to by no other option.

            • aahmichael says:

              Your problem is that you are always looking for an impulse. That bias causes you to force bizarre leading diagonal counts where they don’t exist. It’s very weird that you almost always ignore the obvious. 99.9% of the moves that you label as leading diagonals are nothing more than basic ABCs that subdivide by 3-3-5. Personally, I can count the number of leading diagonals that I’ve seen in 30 years on one hand. They are the rarest of all EW patterns.

    • rd3777 says:

      Lot’s of distribution today…

    • FLAT wave, and Leading & Ending Diagonals confirmed by new lower low. The FLAT is a slightly truncated flat. So be it. It tends to indicate more ‘weakness’ to follow.

      SPX - Five Minute - Apr-05 1554 PM (5 min)

      Cheers and enjoy the chart.

  14. NINJA SHADE says:

    Looks like that slight LL was the 5 waves down from 2075 – now waiting for retrace into 2065 area for some shorts

  15. tomasso60 says:

    from peter brandt

    • Bob Sagget says:

      Nikkei will move up and overtake the SPX with Abe’s impending revised QE announcement. “Not!”

      • Dex T says:

        Abe and Japan’s Central bank have been fighting a lost cause. All of that QE and rate cuts and Nikkei continues to head down.

        The bank should reverse the negative rate cut and just end QE.

  16. stmro says:

    Would really like it to break previous lows today. Otherwise it’s just a double bottom.

  17. TMF says:

    $DAX / $NIKK enough said

  18. Igor says:

  19. phil1247 says:


    gold shorts trading perfectly

    1190 target should be seen soon

    • phil1247 says:

      looks like a b wave triangle maybe forming

      downward post triangle thrust to 1190 would fit nicely

  20. kvilia says:

    Would love for small caps to join the party, they’ve been stubborn.

  21. K-Tastic says:

    I wonder if anyone’s developed algos using Tony’s OEW pivots…Tony, could you patent your OEW pivots? 🙂

  22. On the 10 day chart of the hourly GDX,MACD is crossing to the upside.Last time this happened it wemt from 18.10 to 20.00.We shall see.

  23. H D says:

    Interesting the A wave down was 15.2%, at 2085 the rally from 1810 would have also been 15.2%, missed by 0.4% Same for DJI -0.3% miss from it’s 16.2%, equal and opposite.

    regardless, very nice to see 2044 and 2055 today. Under 2019P can look at wave structure to decipher retrace wave 2 down or C wave hit. Typically the C won’t find S at pivots and rally IMO.

  24. bud67 says:

    When does the National Debt – mean something to this country?
    Investing, Housing, Borrowing money for a loan?

    • rd3777 says:

      When Depositers in Banks get hit with buy ins and the market crashes….not in that order,of course. Austerity will be totally abhorent.

    • Dex T says:


      Just about everyone must realize that the debt will never be paid back.

    • torehund says:

      ..when the public starts to focus on it. Same goes with the Iceland Crown, the country is just a few steps away from revolution and the currency still floats 🙂

  25. rd3777 says:

    The market is just waiting for crude to finish here and then both will accelerate down.

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