weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 2036. On Monday the market opened higher, hit SPX 2043, then pulled back into Tuesday morning to 2028. Then the market rallied to a new uptrend high by Wednesday at SPX 2072. After that, another pullback took the market to SPX 2044 by early Friday before the market rallied to a new uptrend high at SPX 2075. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.7%, the NDX/NAZ gained 2.9% , and the DJ World index gained 1.3%. Economic reports for the week were biased positive. On the uptick: personal income/spending, the PCE, the WLEI, pending homes sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, the Chicago PMI, and ISM manufacturing. On the downtick: the ADP index, monthly payrolls, GDPN, construction spending, plus weekly jobless claims and the unemployment rate rose. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes and ISM services.

LONG TERM: bear market

During the 2009-2015 bull market we had often tracked world index trends as a leading indicator for potential uptrend reversals in the US. This worked out quite well until the market ran into a choppy 2015. This week we took a look at the 20 foreign markets we track and found that all have been in uptrends, along with the US, throughout the month of March. In this last week of March only 35% of these indices made new uptrend highs, 30% have been trading sideways, and 35% have already been heading lower. Normally several of these foreign indices will start confirming downtrends before the US rolls over and confirms a downtrend too. And that is what is occurring. Twenty-five percent of the world’s markets are now in confirmed downtrends.


The long term count remains unchanged. Five Primary waves up from the 2009 low into the December 2015 high to complete the Cycle wave [1] bull market. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary waves III, IV and V completed in 2015. From the December high we are counting a Major wave A down, and now a Major wave B uptrend underway. When this uptrend concludes the next downtrend should take the market to new bear market lows.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

The Major wave B uptrend, that began in mid-February, continues to rise. We had been expecting a three Intermediate wave uptrend topping between SPX 1950 and 2000. After labeling Intermediate waves A and B at SPX 1947 and SPX 1891, Intermediate wave C was underway. It, however, has been stronger than expected as it continues to subdivide higher. Last week it broke through the 2043 pivot, pulled back to the 2019 pivot, and started to rise at week’s end. This week it reached the 2070 pivot, pulled back to the 2043 pivot, and ended the week within the 2070 pivot range. Next overhead resistance is the 2085 pivot.


Despite this seemingly relentless advance we continue to label this uptrend as Major wave B of an ongoing bear market. Nonetheless, we continue to receive questions regarding Primary waves IV and V. Some further explanation is probably needed. Bull markets unfold in quantified long term uptrends. When a long term downtrend is confirmed, that uptrend has ended and all internal counts within that long term uptrend have completed. In other words, Primary waves one through five ended within the 2009-2015 bull market. Some in our group have noted that there are indices, other than the main four indices (SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ), that are out of sync with the general wave pattern configuration. This is true, and it may be the one of the reasons for the strength of this B wave. In the meantime, this advance remains in an uptrend with resistance at the 2085 and 2135 pivots, and support at the 2070 and 2043 pivots.


With Friday’s new uptrend high this uptrend has stretched into its second month. Quite a rally from the SPX 1812/1810 double bottom in January/February. And longer than the October rally after its SPX 1867/1872 double bottom in August/September. As noted previously we continue to count this uptrend as three Intermediate waves: A 1947, B 1891, C still underway. Currently Int. C is 1.34 times Int. A. It will reach 1.5 times A at SPX 2097, and 1.618 times A at SPX 2113. Both levels are quite close to the all time high at SPX 2135.


Technically the daily RSI/MACD continue to display a negative divergence. And there is some previous resistance between the rally highs, SPX 2077 and 2082, during the last downtrend. These are both nearly within the 2085 pivot. It has been difficult to call a top in this uptrend as it continues to extend. Currently the market will need to decline to the 2019 pivot to get some downside momentum underway. Short term support is at the 2070 and 2043 pivots, with resistance at the 2085 and 2104 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week overbought. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were mixed for a net loss of 0.5%.

European markets were mostly lower and lost 0.5% on the week.

The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 1.4%.

The DJ World index is still in an uptrend and gained 1.3% on the week.


Bonds appear to be uptrending and gained 0.8% on the week.

Crude appears to be downtrending and lost 7.1% on the week.

Gold appears to be downtrending too but gained 0.5% on the week.

The USD is in a downtrend and lost 1.6% on the week.


Monday: Factory orders at 10am. Tuesday: the Trade deficit and ISM services. Wednesday: the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: Wholesale inventories. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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359 Responses to weekend update

  1. fotis2 says:

    2 hourly doji stars close fair chance of more upside geez louise…make that a double Max!

  2. Shorty go my way…… that is the theme song for April.

  3. blackjak100 says:

    If int v is an ED, then it should find support 2050-2055 for wave 2. 2050 is the 13sma which has supported this rally the entire way. Tomorrow it resides around 2053ish. Remember a daily candlestick below the 13sma without touching it and you can put this rally into the books.

  4. gasman88 says:

    We have overbought parabolic market, crashing oil, bad economic data and pulling trigger on the short side is more terrifying than going long. Is this crazy or what?

  5. Page says:

    SPX and Oil is in consolidating today and may be tomorrow. SPX 2100+ and Oil mid 40s next few days.

  6. rd3777 says:

    This market reminds me of the frog in the pot of water…..hold long does it take to boil…..if it’s a induction stove not long.

  7. steplaland says:

    This is it…needs to take out trendline from 2/29 @ 2050. 2hr rolling over.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      Ill believe it when I see it – its full moron mode still. The fact this market isn’t down 1% today in quick order on oil, factory data, durable goods, and FED comments is proof of it

  8. kvilia says:

    Where is a breakpoint for CL on your chart under 36?

  9. Just got a rarely seen copy of “The Yellen Stock,Oil and Bond Timing” newsletter from February:
    ” If you re reading this newsletter,you must be very rich,powerful and a personal friend of mine.I know the stock market and oil market have been dropping lately,but never fear–Yellen is here.Rest assured we re all making lots of money on our puts for oil and S&P.I have instructed all the usual parties to start buying oil and S&P futures and not stop until certain people on the Caldaro blog become bullish (we know who they are).Bonds must go lower in yield to confuse everyone.To those hedgies that went the wrong way and had to subscribe to this newsletter for a paltry 10 million dollars a month–welcome.We soon will have you back in the green.By April we should have oil up to $40 and S&P to 2080.So buy buy buy and we ll see you next month.
    Sincerely J Yellen”

  10. stmro says:

    We’re 7 points down?! Quick, someone call aunt Yellen!

    Seriously though, i won’t hold out hope for a larger correction unless it gets below the previous low @ 2044.

  11. sixpack says:

    Great article Dex. Thanks for sharing. Anyone notice healthcare & biotech today!!!

  12. Dex T says:

    NYSE Margin Debt Falls to Lowest Since 2013

    “New York Stock Exchange margin debt fell last month for the fourth consecutive month, according to the exchange.”

    “The reading dropped 2.7% to $435.8 billion in February, its lowest since November 2013.”


    • K-Tastic says:

      DexT – how do you interpret? More dry powder? or signs that more money is coming out of the system?

      • Dex T says:

        More “money” coming out of the system. Debt peaked about a year ago just before the S&P topped in May.

        March numbers not available yet so will wait to see what those say.

        • From a 507b number last year…should be seen as an extremely bearish number…and from last years peak,it has been.Three 10% plus corrections and more to come–unless as Mr C says “it’s different this time”.I don t think it is different.

  13. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD -1100ish…would like to see one more high above 2075 first to possibly complete major 1

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