Thursday update

SHORT TERM: end of month, end of quarter, DOW -32

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were flat overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 276K v 265K. The market opened unchanged from yesterday’s SPX 2064 close, and at 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported surprisingly higher: 53.6 v 47.6. The market then worked its way higher until hitting SPX 2068 around noon, and then started to pullback. The pullback lasted until 2:30 when the SPX hit 2057. Then after a bounce to SPX 2064 by 3:30 the market dipped to close at 2060.

For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 13 ticks, Crude slipped 15 cents, Gold added $6, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: Payrolls (est. +200k) at 8:30, then Construction spending, Consumer sentiment and Auto sales at 10am.

The market opened unchanged today, then traded in a narrow 11 point range for the rest of the day. Quiet trading for month-end, quarter-end window dressing. With tomorrow’s Payrolls report, and the first day of the quarter, the market is likely to see some volatility. Not much to update from yesterday technically. Short term wave count remains the same, and there remains a developing negative divergence on the daily charts of the four major indices. Short term support is at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum continues to back off after yesterday’s extreme overbought reading. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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298 Responses to Thursday update

  1. rd3777 says:

    I can’t imagine that they will close this @ top tick with the JPN225 futures are down 630

    just incase this might be top tick….lol!

  2. highs of the day, should manage new highs next week, only 60 points away. Have a nice weekend.

  3. simpleiam says:

    Great rally! 2085 up next?
    Have a great weekend everyone!

  4. How a potential ‘triangle’ turns into a potential diagonal – with a marginal new high. Nothing says upward movement is ‘over’. In a contracting diagonal (3) could just not become longer than (1). Possible that a wave (4) would start downward on Monday, as Mondays have ‘often’ been the down day of the week.

    Hourly Futures_5

    Cheers and enjoy the chart.

    • blackjak100 says:

      wave ii awfully shallow on $SPX for contracting ED. It does not have right look.

      • It could still be 5 after the running 4 .. no issue there. But it followed the lower trend line reasonably well, and we’ll have to see where, if, an upper trend line forms. I know you are looking for that 78.6% deep retrace in each diagonal. Most often they happen, sometimes they do not. If they ‘always’ happened, there would be a ‘rule’ about them. There isn’t a rule about it – just guidelines.

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