Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: Yellen feeds the bulls, DOW +98

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.7%. The market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2037 close, ticked down to 2028, and then started to rise ahead a FED chair Yellen’s NYC speech. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 96.2 v 92.2. Just as Yellen’s speech was released the market spiked up: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160329a.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX neared its uptrend high at 2057, then pulled back to end the day at 2055.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15.

The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 2028, then rallied nearly back to its uptrend high after FED chair Yellen gave her dovish speech. Is the FED just talking the talk, or planning to try and do away with bear markets and recessions too? Historically trying to avoid normal economic cycles has always ended in asset bubbles. With today’s rally we can now count three waves up from Thursday’s SPX 2022 low: 2043-2028-2056. Should the market exceed SPX 2057 the uptrend is extending higher. Short term support is now at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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384 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stmro says:

    US equity markets seem unstoppable. Global indices are all down up to 1% today, yet US is up. Usually there is correlation between US and EU markets but not today. Shows how much more weight FED dovishness holds compared to all other central banks.

  2. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Darkness ‏@SirDarkness 8s8 seconds ago
    $spx currently 2068 within 13 pts of high 1611-1687 target

    gave it a 1-10 shot but it did it
    Darkness @SirDarkness Feb 1
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaJ9fnRWcAQGA3f.png … …

  3. allen1929 says:

    Armstrongs update today SCARY imo
    The smart institutional clients who attend our World Economic Conferences have shifted their portfolios and are selling government debt and moving to blue chip corporate. Corporate debt is the only alternative to government debt in crisis and emerging market debt that others bought, thinking they had no risk since it is dollar denominated. When government debt goes bust, you get absolutely nothing and they can change the law at any given moment. They can re-denominate your debt holdings as well as extend the maturity, and there is absolutely nothing any bondholder can possible do.


  4. NINJA SHADE says:

    Clear 3 waves down, unless it holds here at 2069 for w2 of LD, there will be a HH tomorrow…

  5. phil1247 says:

    2068 spx

    close enough for me

    hasta all

  6. vivelaamo says:

    It’s a Scalpers market both ways. Until it no longer is…

  7. 2075-2077 close today. squeeze more 55 up from 2022 is 2077

  8. magnus1234 says:

    TC’s pivots are very tradable and so is his general trend. For instance, look at the daily. What does it say? Uptrend!!! WTF do you trade differently? It is beyond me. Then I don’t agree with P IV and P V but that is a different matter. Thanks Tony.

  9. NEWBIE says:

    One higher high above 2072 and its game over, lights out, s&p will have massive drop into the election.

  10. pete8675309 says:

    I rarely post because opinions are worthless but sometimes we feel better by throwing in our 2 cents worth. First, thank you Tony! You may be vindicated today with potential double top and key reversal, we’ll see. I think Major B is baked in the cake and C could start anytime, perhaps today…


  11. Peter Sliney says:

    A shooting star is only bear bait. This bull has a friendly fed and breadth.

  12. kvilia says:

    Phil – special thank you!
    Those who want to augment great work Tony’s putting together here, sign up for eminiaddict.com. I wish I was not trading for the first couple of weeks of my subscription. The gentleman actually has a webinar window up and narrates the trading day (futures, but actually you get the feeling for your entries otherwise), not to mention speaking to a big picure. Just my impression, no affiliation nor benefit from this statement.
    And I think Tony is right, just wait for the C and dont get short until you see it and without tight stops.

  13. Janet Yellen for the first time changed tone and results are there for you to see. When Bernanke was chairman, she has publicly commented that she does not see any benefits of QE. Her comments yesterday came as a shock to me. Marc Faber correctly said, there will be permanent QE.

    Mario Draghi commented that he saw downturn in the third week of December.

    Both events combined, I think economy is hitting a soft patch. But this does not mean market can tank, at the moment overbought, so there could be little pullback.

  14. Hi Tony

    Do you think that wave B topped out at 2070 pivot today with this bearish reversal candle ?

    If not – where do you think wave B tops out ?

    Thank you

  15. phil1247 says:


    extension long held

    target…..just above todays high

  16. captbara says:

    This is it, put full shorts back on. Don’t miss out.

  17. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    pro -tip
    I would not call a 15% correction ( 2135- 1810 ) a bear market . History will not call it that either .
    What is coming, is a bear mkt , 1687 by Aug. The Fed was not going to say something stupid in
    front of hundred’s of billions in energy loans that are going thru the REDETERMINATION PROCESS the next month.

  18. vivelaamo says:

    Be nice to close with a shooting star. It probably just trap some more bears but you gotta trade what you see right?

    • mjtplayer says:

      VIX just went green and at the HOD – is there hope yet for the bears???

      A shooting star daily candle on the S&P and a morning star daily candle on the VIX would be a big help to us struggling bears.

      Oil’s sharp reversal is also helping.

    • stcoleridge says:

      Wasn’t it Frankie GTH who said shooting stars never stop, even when they reach to top?

  19. vivelaamo says:

    Never ending P5! I’m with Tony on this one and think it’s B wave.

  20. simpleiam says:

    Recently, I received what we used to call as kids, a “double dog dare” from a guy who makes a lot more money that I do, that you can’t partner-dance to hard rock music. I’ve been trying to dispel this notion for years, and earlier this year, I decided to start working on this in my dance lessons, trying to revive a cousin swing dance of West Coast Swing called The Whip. This is NOT The Whip you see on Youtube related to football (American), but a regional Texas dance that’s wonderful to watch, and even more fun to dance. The Country crowd abandoned it, the Disco crowd left it for WCS, the Latin’s have their dances, so it’s time us Rockers had a dance.

    After bickering over what constitutes “Hard Rock”, I let this guy spew out names, until he got to the one that I already had plans for… Black Sabbath. The bet is $1,000, I get to pick the song (which I already had before he even opened his mouth), I have to dance the entire song, keep the moves at the Beginner and Intermediate level (that can be learned in the 1st 90 days of group lessons), and I have to dance it at my dance club’s August Showcase, then upload it to Youtube. I do get to throw in an Advanced level spin or 2 if I want.

    Here’s the song, which starts at 0:33 into the time. Already got it choreographed, and practicing it a bit now. I plan to upload the video to a local Rock radio station as well. I’ve heard for 30 years how Rockers want to dance to music they like to listen to, so will see how true, or false that is. Keep in mind, I’m 60 years old, walk with a cane, and if I can do this, anyone can do this. If anyone has background on this song and what the lyrics mean, please let me know. I think I already know (researched this), and it has nothing to do with Satan or devil worship crap. If you were trapped in Birmingham, England in the 1960’s, working in the factories and mills, & got the tips of 2 fingers on your right hand cut off, as Tony Iommi did, what would you sing about? (Hint)

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