SHORT TERM: Yellen feeds the bulls, DOW +98
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.7%. The market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2037 close, ticked down to 2028, and then started to rise ahead a FED chair Yellen’s NYC speech. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 96.2 v 92.2. Just as Yellen’s speech was released the market spiked up: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160329a.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX neared its uptrend high at 2057, then pulled back to end the day at 2055.
For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15.
The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 2028, then rallied nearly back to its uptrend high after FED chair Yellen gave her dovish speech. Is the FED just talking the talk, or planning to try and do away with bear markets and recessions too? Historically trying to avoid normal economic cycles has always ended in asset bubbles. With today’s rally we can now count three waves up from Thursday’s SPX 2022 low: 2043-2028-2056. Should the market exceed SPX 2057 the uptrend is extending higher. Short term support is now at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market