Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: Yellen feeds the bulls, DOW +98

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 9am Case-Shiller was reported unchanged at +5.7%. The market opened six points below yesterday’s SPX 2037 close, ticked down to 2028, and then started to rise ahead a FED chair Yellen’s NYC speech. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 96.2 v 92.2. Just as Yellen’s speech was released the market spiked up: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20160329a.htm. Around 3:30 the SPX neared its uptrend high at 2057, then pulled back to end the day at 2055.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.60%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold rallied $21, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises back to the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP index at 8:15.

The market opened lower today, pulled back to SPX 2028, then rallied nearly back to its uptrend high after FED chair Yellen gave her dovish speech. Is the FED just talking the talk, or planning to try and do away with bear markets and recessions too? Historically trying to avoid normal economic cycles has always ended in asset bubbles. With today’s rally we can now count three waves up from Thursday’s SPX 2022 low: 2043-2028-2056. Should the market exceed SPX 2057 the uptrend is extending higher. Short term support is now at the 2043 and 2019 pivots, with resistance at the 2070 and 2085 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day extremely overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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384 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stmro says:

    US equity markets seem unstoppable. Global indices are all down up to 1% today, yet US is up. Usually there is correlation between US and EU markets but not today. Shows how much more weight FED dovishness holds compared to all other central banks.


  2. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Darkness ‏@SirDarkness 8s8 seconds ago
    $spx currently 2068 within 13 pts of high 1611-1687 target

    gave it a 1-10 shot but it did it
    Darkness @SirDarkness Feb 1
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CaJ9fnRWcAQGA3f.png … …


  3. allen1929 says:

    Armstrongs update today SCARY imo
    The smart institutional clients who attend our World Economic Conferences have shifted their portfolios and are selling government debt and moving to blue chip corporate. Corporate debt is the only alternative to government debt in crisis and emerging market debt that others bought, thinking they had no risk since it is dollar denominated. When government debt goes bust, you get absolutely nothing and they can change the law at any given moment. They can re-denominate your debt holdings as well as extend the maturity, and there is absolutely nothing any bondholder can possible do.



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