Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets lot 0.7%. Europe was closed for holiday. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.3%, and Personal income (+0.2% v +0.5%)/spending (+0.1% v +0.5%) were reported higher too. The market opened five points above Friday’s SPX 2036 close, and immediately began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.5% v -2.5%. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 2032, then the market started to drift higher. At 2pm the SPX hit 2043, then dipped down to close at 2037.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, Consumer confidence at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:30.

The market opened higher today, pulled back to SPX 2032, rallied to SPX 2043, and then closed about unchanged. No real change in the short term count, nor the potential downtrend scenario. Market still needs to break SPX 2009 and 1969, before making a new uptrend high, to add to the probabilities of a downtrend underway. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1970 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum made it to overbought during today’s rally, then declined to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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220 Responses to Monday update

  1. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Fully positioned 4 longs / 18 shorts . $spx 1687 iwm 76
    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    December 16, 2015 at 12:51 pm
    Next 4 mos back to 93
    For the guy asking about IWM – was a great long – it is now my biggest short as of yday at close
    I made the point back in feb at 95 , it always retraces . That was the final call


  2. stan502 says:

    Thanks Tony. Must say I see a number of positive charts cutting broad across sectors. It may be global capital flow but the shorts have no game yet from my perch. Just saying..


  3. vivelaamo says:

    Text book short here.


  4. jeffbalin says:

    naz and rut b wave highs, but all overlapping


  5. Been killed on NDX today 😦


  6. relentless
    2100 is just as good a guess as 2000 at this point by Friday. Bears get rolled yet again. Think id learn my lesson and never mess with a central banker


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