Monday update

SHORT TERM: quiet day, DOW +20

Overnight the Asian markets lot 0.7%. Europe was closed for holiday. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 PCE prices were reported higher: +0.1% v +0.3%, and Personal income (+0.2% v +0.5%)/spending (+0.1% v +0.5%) were reported higher too. The market opened five points above Friday’s SPX 2036 close, and immediately began to pullback. At 10am Pending home sales were reported higher: +3.5% v -2.5%. The pullback continued until about 10:30 when the SPX hit 2032, then the market started to drift higher. At 2pm the SPX hit 2043, then dipped down to close at 2037.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.05%, and the NDX/NAZ were -0.10%. Bonds gained 3 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold added $3, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Case-Shiller at 9am, Consumer confidence at 10am, then a speech from FED chair Yellen at 12:30.

The market opened higher today, pulled back to SPX 2032, rallied to SPX 2043, and then closed about unchanged. No real change in the short term count, nor the potential downtrend scenario. Market still needs to break SPX 2009 and 1969, before making a new uptrend high, to add to the probabilities of a downtrend underway. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1970 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum made it to overbought during today’s rally, then declined to neutral. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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220 Responses to Monday update

  1. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Fully positioned 4 longs / 18 shorts . $spx 1687 iwm 76
    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    December 16, 2015 at 12:51 pm
    Next 4 mos back to 93
    For the guy asking about IWM – was a great long – it is now my biggest short as of yday at close
    I made the point back in feb at 95 , it always retraces . That was the final call

  2. stan502 says:

    Thanks Tony. Must say I see a number of positive charts cutting broad across sectors. It may be global capital flow but the shorts have no game yet from my perch. Just saying..

  3. vivelaamo says:

    Text book short here.

  4. jeffbalin says:

    naz and rut b wave highs, but all overlapping

  5. Been killed on NDX today 😦

  6. relentless
    2100 is just as good a guess as 2000 at this point by Friday. Bears get rolled yet again. Think id learn my lesson and never mess with a central banker

  7. While there are no changes to this count, we may be back in the “fourth wave conundrum” to guess what the fourth wave will look like. On this 120-min chart, below, it depends exactly where you place the channel. If you place the channel from 1 to iii, then the channel has been hit for 4. If you place the channel from 1 – 3, then there is room for the lower channel line to be hit. There is no hard & fast rule, but Neely suggests (from his earlier work) that the latter is more correct.

    So, if there is no new closing high today, then it’s possible we only had a-b-c down, and a-b-c, up, as is possible in a “barrier triangle” or other fourth wave structure. This might make sense given the ‘length’ of the 3rd wave. A fourth wave ‘can’ take up considerable time.

    SP500 (120 Min)  3_29_2016a

    Cheers and enjoy the chart!

  8. Someone on another blog posted this…interesting chart…

  9. vivelaamo says:

    Volume is lowest since New Years ever. Remember what happened next?

  10. stmro says:

    Double top is a decent set-up. Short 2056, stop 2066.

  11. captbara says:

    Stocktwits SPY bullish sentiment drop to 28%, approaching Feb 12 lows.

  12. Peter Sliney says:

    Bottom line Janet is a democrat and will do everything in her power to see to it that the market stays up while Obama is in office. End of story.

    • Bob Sagget says:

      Very well put Peter.

      That does not guarantee the market will stay up. I doubt she planned on Aug/Sep 15 or Jan/Feb 16.

      • Dex T says:

        That didn’t help in 2008

        The Fed is looking to maintain the status quo regardless of anything else.

        But they won’t forever, this market is eventually going to give out.

  13. vivelaamo says:

    Perfect back test of the broken trendline. Be interesting to see where we go from here. My money’s on the downside.

  14. vivelaamo says:

    Perfect back test of the broken trendline. Be interesting to see where we go from here. My money’s on true downside.

  15. llerias7 says:

    New highs coming…keeping with HL and HH…probably soon ATH, too! This mkt is a new beast…

  16. 😀 I’m curious in those readings today…what a big bear market we have in hands

  17. kvilia says:

    Any sentiment change?

  18. tawcap says:

    Looks like a double top setting up on the spx. Ftse making lower highs and lows the last few days. The rally is a bit baffling given its pretty obvious rate increases are data dependent, and that data is very mixed. No new newsflow at all.

    • what a about the new wild card ???? USD$

      • tawcap says:

        The problem is we can only price in fewer (or no) rate increases into the dollar so many times. Data/policy from the other major economic regions isn’t giving other currencies much reason to rally against the dollar in the medium term. Today’s move feels like just a reversal after the dollar had strengthened a bit following other fed members talking up hikes.

  19. mjtplayer says:

    FYI – Martin Armstrong has this week as a “major turning point” for the DOW

  20. allen1929 says:

    Someone explain to me how trin stays 1.50 with this up move es?

  21. vivelaamo says:

    Look at the volume!

  22. EL MATADOR says:

    2046 ES short filled

  23. kvilia says:

    Any technicians there? Any pullback in sight???

  24. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Everyone knows they aren’t raising and they trade on it. Then they pretend as if they might raise and they bid it higher when they repeat what they said last time which is they are not raising. Personal spending crap GDP crap corporate earnings crap but let’s build the market up twenty times on the same friggin dovish news which has never been new news. I simply don’t get the market anymore. I completely give up. I’m reducing my short positions soon and I’m out for a while. F this market. F it and F Janet the money whore and F all the idiots who but this market. F you all.

  25. sweinv says:

    What happen to the nasty C-wave? I think we have to wait at least until tomorrow.

  26. mike7x says:

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