Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening: then rebound, DOW +13

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported unchanged at 265K, plus Durable goods orders were reported lower: -2.8% v +4.9%. The market gapped down to SPX 2025 at the open, hit 2022 in the first few minutes, then began to rise. The market had closed at SPX 2037 yesterday. Heading into the close the market nearly closed the gap, ending the day/week at SPX 2036.

For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, and the market is closed for a holiday.

The market gapped down at the open today, traded down to the 2019 pivot range, and then rebounded for the rest of the day reaching the 2043 pivot range by the close. At the open the market broke through the lower trend line of the rising channel created during this uptrend. As noted yesterday, the next two important events would be a drop below SPX 2009 and then SPX 1969 to keep this potential downtrend going. Currently it looks like the bears have little conviction as they fear getting steam rolled again by the BTD bulls. Short term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning, then rose above neutral by the close. Best to your holiday weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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201 Responses to Thursday update

  1. valunvstr says:

    Following the script and was bound to happen. Retail client is selling their bear fund holding and going long on the dips. Points to a topping process.!ASETBEARI&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p46561790214&a=446011203&listNum=1!ASETBEARI:!ASETBULLI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88049918992&a=446210900&listNum=1

  2. Hi,Spy log weekly,virtually a congestion but decided to draw a falling trendline,a slight divergence in last bottom,thanks

  3. rd3777 says:

    My last chart…The multi triangular top in the SPX500…consisting of a EDT that brought in the first top and then the Infant fractal,followed by the child fractal and culiminating in the 11 wave thrust up for the wave E of the parent fractal triangular top. Much lower prices ahead. This is a amazing formation IMHO..

    • rd3777 says:

      Ben Bernanke’s 3 wave paradigm…everything is 3’s

      • torehund says:

        Its a piggy back effect, charts like this makes traders bearish 🙂
        Stocks aren’t easy to figure 🙂

        • rd3777 says:

          You are right….the only place I have ever seen this many thrusts up or down is in topping triangles. Wave E’s are very powerful in the ending position usually developing extremes in sentiment…I think this one fits that description perfectly. The resulting thrust down should be very impressive if that is indeed what this is….it should leave no doubt in anybody’s mind.

  4. blackjak100 says:

    Major 1 in???? I don’t agree, but I’ve been flat for weeks now. As I’ve said, close below 2000ish and it most likely is

    • blackjak100 says:

      Forgot to mention why I don’t agree. Waves 2 & 4 are both expanded flats and not in proportion with each other. Natey obviously doesn’t like waves 3 and 5 both extended but had to pick a poison.

      • blackjak100 says:

        I’m sure the main reason he went with this count is it has the ‘right look’ on daily chart. Clear 9 waves.

  5. tomasso60 says:

    Spx weekly cycle and arch.
    attempt at posting

  6. i am thinking the concept of ew is great and its so great that it doesnt help. for example if we move down from here it could be a e of 4 before going up or c or 3 (for bears)…if it moves up and makes new a high, bulls will say its a fifth, bears will say its an extended b. so everyone will be right and ew will rule…really wtf.

    also on oil, so two days ago we broke the upward channel that started from 26 but then it bounced of the long term resistance sloping down at 38.4ish which would validate the upward move.

    so one heck of a confusing situation and whoever is proven by stoke of luck will think that she or he is genius,,, like Mr. xau xau when he got one call right… this was my commentary for the weekend

    • torehund says:

      Its about finding the major road crosses, and then trust that it real IS a major cross, jump in and not let go until you think the next major road cross appears. Its doable, but skills AND persistence has to be highly developed. A better way is to mix it with techs, and if nothing works bury your head in the sand and pray for the best. That said, having your head buried in the sand is maybe the best method around, chances are your fellow holders are doing exactly like you….Observe what you do not what you think; and you may get a hint of where in the cycle of ups and downs your investment resides.
      I hope this is helpful.

  7. EL MATADOR says:

    U$D is gonna go ariba ariba

    so what that spell for equities?

  8. EL MATADOR says:

    What is the difference between the two trend tops?

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Here is what the weekly chart shows … now “bear” with me

      • ibra76ig says:

        Thanks EL MATADOR.
        In my point of view the market couldn’t be obvious to the participants by repeating the last top process, and if the market going to resume the downtrend then the top process will be faster than the last top.

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          That would make sense about the speed since the last fall took less time than the previous and based upon typical bears where the subsequent drops are faster. I think without the conditioning by market participants brought in by BTFD algorithms QE and FED support and expectations of DED support has made the topping processes longer but that’s just my take. In other words denial takes longer in this bull

      • torehund says:

        Looks toppish on this chart, agree.
        In defense of the Bull: looking at the 60 min Indu chart, here on Tonys site, it becomes apparent that a full Macd cycle (from 12th of Feb 2016 until today) is finished. It started with an abc up to the top and has descended in a double abc down whilst the macd lines on the downtrend has avoided being submerged subzero. This is a sign of strength that hasn’t been apparent for a long time. A new cycle up and down starting at about zero may indicate that the daily might do miracles before once again turning down. Thats also whats needed to keep the daily afloat before the Monthly finally gets a chance to respond.

      • rd3777 says:

        IMHO….the main difference is two tops take olace @ lower price levels amid lower lows too.. The stochastics and MACD are in weaker positions too,because we now have a hook in the monthly stochastic although you do not show that. The late PQ Wall always believed in 3 mountain tops forming at a major top. We potentialy have that now.

      • fionamargaret says:

        Always nice charts El Mat X

    • fotis2 says:

      The top we in now looks like price is not done with upside

  9. rd3777 says:

    The Knife (NYA) has nested1,2’s on the weekly chart and looks to have done a 1,2 down this week.good for Bears and Bad for Bulls. Also has Crude completed it’s rally leg?

    Both weekly charts


    Crude oil

    • rd3777 says:

      Monthly Crude

      • rd3777 says:

        Markets usually fill their Gaps and the Russell 3000 is no exception. The trend down should accelerate as nested 1,2’s are in place.

        • rd3777 says:

          IBM is a pretty good proxy for the Dow…here is a 5 minute chart of this weeks action. 5 waves down ? and notice the gap fill….

    • Right .. a downward count is ‘possible’. Keep in mind if the DOW triangle ‘fails’, then it fails as either an A-B-1, 2 down, or 1-2-i-ii down – as you suggest above. I only present a ‘plausible’ case on the DOW because it is comprised of fewer stocks. Like the S&P the NYA can ‘also’ be counted as W-X-Y, down (or some prefer A-B-C, down). But keep in mind that now the NYA accounts for ‘every’ stock on the NYSE, not just the 500 in the SP or the 30 in Dow. So, it may result in even more skew to the down side. Until the channel is broken to the down side, it can be considered a zigzag (or multiple zz). Further, unlike the European averages the NYA has not (yet) overlapped the first wave up from 2009, so there is no Elliott violation on that score.

      On Crude, if you are considering a downward triangle, or diagonal as they are sometimes known, then ‘usually’ the D wave overlaps the C wave, and that hasn’t happened yet.

      • rd3777 says:

        There are many stocks that have made new highs this week and are in triangles,some are in very large Bat tops which collapse out of them. I still contend that this is a 3 wave paradigm because of the Nasdaq double top and Bernanke’s QE madness. If I’m right the market should collapse from here.
        Crude is a interesting pattern that has taken the form of a declining wedge. The recent action is a combo ABC after the collapse wave A of C. We have just completed c up and now should start down in a 5 wave decline to below $20

        Of course crude will take Equites with it and the financial system.

        • simpleiam says:

          Pretty much agree with you re: Crude. Wondering how long it will take. However long that takes will probably be the length of time I still have a job.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            In some sense the oil heading back up here to the forties probably wasn’t a good thing…..plenty of oil people as smart as they may be would find it more difficult to cut production with this bounce. I think it hurts the supply numbers going forward

        • rd3777 says:

          Anyway this is how I see Crude …..

          • rd3777 says:

            I added the (B) label….anyway the (C) of the large (A),(B) just completed,should be in progress now,which should be 5 waves down.

  10. Earlier in the week, I presented evidence from the year 2000 top that the DOW and S&P can be out of synch for months near market highs. Here is a ‘plausible’ scenario in which the DOW and/or the S&P could make new highs between now and 2017.

    In the case of the DOW, the count would be that of a triangle on a weekly chart. We have not seen a true triangle in the DOW’s structure since the 2009 bottom, so perhaps it is time for one. There are three additional key pieces of evidence for such a triangle at this time. The first is that the latest upward retrace wave is beyond the 61.8% level which is characteristic of second waves. In fact, it is almost to 80%. The next is that all of the sub-divisions currently count ‘best’ as three wave sequences. And, third, within each of the zigzags, the c wave is exaggerated with c = 1.618 x a. This is more common relationship in triangles (and diagonals) than in impulse waves.


    One must note that ‘so far’ there have only been single zigzags. So, wave (E) could stretch to become a multiple zigzag, or even a triangle, itself, if it wants. The only thing that would invalidate such a triangle is trading below the low of the (C) wave.

    Well, what about the S&P500, you ask? You note it ‘has’ traded below the low of it’s wave (C). It is possible that the S&P500 is in a double (or triple combination), counted as a-b-c to (W) at the August 2015, low, followed by a-b-c to (X) at the Oct high, followed by a-b-c to (Y) at the Jan, 2016 low. (And this could be followed by one last combination even with a lower low when / if the DOW makes it’s (E) wave). So, the S&P ‘could’ also theoretically make a new high from here, as well.

    Remember, the DOW only has to account for 30 stocks, the S&P fully 500 stocks, so if the two averages ‘part ways’ near the high, such a phenomenon has indeed been seen before. Will new highs be made? The corrective nature of the declines, so far, without a clear series of impulses, lower, to date, suggests it is definitely possible.

    What about timing? It’s possible the DOW’s (E) wave would be the “sell May go away” wave, with a rally toward the end of the year – after enough consolidation to make a rally possible.

    • frommi2 says:

      Thanks for your thoughts, always helpful. Does this mean you think that the current uptrend is finished?

    • phil1247 says:

      Trader Joe……

      i like that timing…

      have you seen what i have posted a couple of times ??

      ” buy in may…..dont go away””

      still looking for a May 1 LOW

      right on brother….

      • phil1247 says:


        maybe prechter is right with his

        “bear markets create negative social mood””

        it certainly appears to manifest here ..

        cant recall anywhere near the sniping backbiting and personal insults present now versus several years ago when the bull market was going strong..

        something you may have noticed perhaps ???

    • I have been touting the bull is not dead and we should have one more new high in all indices. I stick by it. Your chart seems plausible since the earnings season should cause yet another drop but most likely not below the recent lows. So how to reconcile the Elliot wave bear scenario where most believe we are already in one? What is the major wave right here?

    • Igor says:

      Thanks TJ, definitely something to keep in mind.

    • rd3777 says:

      This is interesting as the main top ended in a EDT and thrust down from it….text book and is why I label this top “A”. In fact the two tops have a,b,c,d. and e triangles before thrusting down. If this is true and those tops are similiar…I would think that that formation is playing out in a parent fractal within two child fractals. If so this thrust up from the 1805 low would be wave E in the larger A,B,C,D,E top…..

        • rd3777 says:

          Notice the top Bollinger band has been falling and the bottom band has a slight hook up…bearish…

          • rd3777 says:

            Now here is the S&P Daily the Bollinger has made lower tops and the mid and lower are closer to this last price level…bearish and the RSI has already hooked and turned lower.

      • The closest true Elliott Wave pattern to what you are suggesting is the Expanding Diagonal downward – which I wrote about in my blog as a potential count, lower – months ago. It would count as (1) down to the August, 2015, low, (2) up to the Sep high, (3) down to the Jan, 2016, low, and we are now in (4), up, with a wave (5) lower to follow. For that pattern to play to fruition, however, this wave (4), up, must become slightly longer than wave (2) which it has not yet, without exceeding the high of (2), and then wave (5) down must become at least slightly longer than (3). I had not done a follow-up on the count because (4) is not longer than (2), yet.

        • rd3777 says:

          The only explanation I have is the drop down from the top of the first thrust down is a 1 or X and then the resulting 3 wave formation is a double zig-zag with a C up that just ended a 2 or E wave. Either way we should get a thrust down to new lows atleast.

    • rd3777 says:

      Here’s a SPX500 Daily, I have labeled the 2 prior triangulat tops. They consist od the infant,the child and the possible Parent fractal.

  11. We ll see if the Fed can trump sentiment.

  12. Tony Jordan says:

    4th quarter GDP estimate raised to 1.4% from 1.0%. Consumer spending raised to 2.4% from 2.0% and 4th quarter drop in US exports reduced to 2.0% from 2.7%. All bullish I guess. However 4th quarter corporate adjusted pre-tax profits drop 7.8% with 2015 showing the first annual decline (-3.2%) since 2008.

    • valunvstr says:

      Only a bull with tunnel vision (not you, the guy who drew the chart) would call that a bull flag. It is by definition NOT a bull flag. It just doesn’t fit the definition in any way.

      • simpleiam says:

        To be fair, he did say “possible” Bull flag. Can’t speak for his drawing, but his forecast has been the best I’ve seen thus far. Forecast was for spx 2100 over 3 years ago now, and never he’s not adjusted it in any way.

        • simpleiam says:

          “…and he’s not adjusted it…”
          Tired. Time to go outside and play. 🙂

        • valunvstr says:

          An Hussman was right in 2008 and wrong ever since. 😉 Just saying it’s not a bull flag. He can say “possible” but it either is or it isn’t and the very definition says it is not. With that said, the market can still go to knew highs. That still wouldn’t make it a bull flag.

          • simpleiam says:

            Okay, well, you know more about flags than I do. I’m just watching the guys forecast, which has been a great one the past few years. Happy Holiday!

  13. If there is no improvement in US and Global growth there won’t be another rate hike is the way I read it.

    • simpleiam says:

      The more I see this play out, the more I think Fed WILL raise rates, just because they want to do it. It wasn’t unusual to hear 1, even 2 Feds come out and want to raise, but this last time, we had 3 come out with rate raising talk. Granted, they aren’t all voting members, but I think they give good insight into what the conversation might be going.

  14. Thank you Tony! May you and all others on here enjoy a fantastic weekend

  15. fotis2 says:

    Only a handfull of posters have profited from this Market and we all know who they are.Myself I thought it was going to collapse at 1980 then at 2020 straight after that at 2043 and now at 2056.It’s starting to feel like the neverending story just now 2070 trendline will be good for a short till 2085 gets hit being the DB daily target then 2100 is around the corner and what the heck!Lets go ATH and a DT.Time for a looong break….

    • fionamargaret says:

      …just take it one day at a time fotis and listen to what the market is saying..don’t force anything…you’ll do just fine. x
      I can think today that the most likely pattern for next week is up to 2070, but I have to wait until I am actually in the market to feel the way the numbers are setting up, to actually know….

    • simpleiam says:

      fotis, truth is, nobody knows who the successful traders are. Most don’t post their trades, and those that do should think twice. If you’re not successful, then try something new. Many of us are NOT day traders.

  16. lunker1 says:

    bear case is 2040 and spy wpp broke down but was only almost backtested. Almost. first wpp failure in a while. Tony’s channel broke and was backtested. closed right at bottom of 2043 pivot. SPY gap almost filled and almost hit 60min 34ema. Monday at most perhaps gap up to 2043 that’s sold or maybe a C waterfall next? well bears whacha got?

  17. fionamargaret says:

    The S&P briefly dipped below the 10 day, but then picked itself up enough to close slightly higher.
    I would think 2065 – 2070 next week before a larger correction ensues….numbers as they come up….

    Thanks Tony. Thanks everyone. Happy Easter…….xxxxx

    • NEWBIE says:

      Sal, your warning would have been helpful 200 s&p points ago.

      • valunvstr says:

        “Bulls” don’t show up until the markets are already near the top. I mean even on a daily basis. The guy was posted non stop. Then two down days in a row and he disappears until a late day rally. Typical. Hey Sal, why don’t you time stamp your trades and positioning so we know where you’re at?

        • Haha… why don’t you ask Abchart and aah Michael how my record is. I repeatedly warned in February all time highs were coming… I don’t post everyday …like I mentioned before any selloff should be bought… good luck shorting

        • Where WERE YOU???

          ABchart says:
          February 26, 2016 at 9:16 am

          ES: 1950 done. We can bounce from here, or from 1943/45 target minmum 1990 maximum 2014 next Wednesday maximum Thursday. Then huge and fast drop (not a joke)

          Sal (@Borgetto23) says:
          February 26, 2016 at 9:17 am

          2016 will be a Bull Market : Target 2160
          ABchart says:
          February 26, 2016 at 9:22 am

          I respect your view. But if you believe that, you must have an invalidation level to avoid suffering a big drop. Maybe stay cash next week to see where the market will move.
          Sal Mazzurco (@Sal22Mazzo) says:
          February 26, 2016 at 9:26 am

          Thanks AB .. MY Plan is to add to my current position a few more contracts around 1900.. Will know more the 1st week of March, where i actually buy could be 1880 or something above at 1900 … My invalidation would be a close below 1860
          ABchart says:
          February 26, 2016 at 9:38 am

          If you want my opinion, although we are here to share and not to give advices, do not do that. This is extremely risky. A crash is imminent…

      • As to your warnings… you’ve been WRONG non stop.. always telling me a crash is coming… I have News for all of you… this is not January! Ath r coming

      • Sal Mazzurco (@Sal22Mazzo) says:
        February 26, 2016 at 9:19 am

        People – What ever pullback we get… ideally anything as far as 1900 … Buy it with both hands… 2016 will be a bull market

        rc1269 says:
        February 26, 2016 at 9:33 am

        i trust you’re basing that on something more bullish than crude rallying back to only being down -58% from recent highs?

  18. fishonhook says:

    Well I didn’t expect that EOD rally!

  19. tomasso60 says:

    thank you Tony
    hope you have a great Easter with family and friends.
    happy Easter

  20. cosmos77 says:

    Happy Easter, Tony and All

  21. captbara says:

    Stocktwits SPY bullish sentiment cratered 10% this week to 31%

  22. Atlanta GNP is 1.4% down from 1.9%.Raise rates…I dare you.The dollar will crash after they do.Then raise them every two months after that.I don t believe a word of it.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      So on February 12th Atlanta Fed was predicting 2.7 GDP now let fast forward 6 weeks to today and now they are optimistically sure it will be 1.4 GDP after nearly chopping off 50% … what changed in 6 weeks to chop off 50% of GDP? …. doesn’t matter they say cuz 1.4 GDP is still very optimistic …. 🙂 LOL

  23. Did the weekly spx chart finish with a Harami candlestick pattern? Thanks in advance

  24. valunvstr says:

    Well, well, well///What a surprise…gap got filled. Better for bears actually. Would have to get it out of the way at some point. Better sooner rather than later.

  25. ogdenfripp says:

    Tony refers to the “BTD bulls ” in his update. Someone, definition of BTD please. ( forgive my naivety ).

      • Problem with disparaging the “Buy the Dip” mentality is that now the breadth (stocks over their 200 day moving average) is proceeding the price advance.

        I’ve buying integrated oil stocks. I think they are cheap.

        • valunvstr says:

          Only that’s not how the tool is used.

          • valunvstr says:

            Using it that way you’d be a buyer in May 2008. We know how that ended.

          • Valu- how should that 200DMA indicator be used?

            • valunvstr says:

              I look for divergences. In 2007 the % of stocks above their 200 day badly broke down while price was making new highs. Same in 2015. It is not my main indicator but one I observe. If it confirms my other main indicators it allows me more confidence to put on bigger positions.

              • Tom Fischer’s example is a divergence, but a positive one. Divergences don’t have to be negative. Nothing works every time and nothing should be used totally by itself.

              • Valunvstr:
                You could also call it a negative divergence if you wanted to because the SPX didn’t go to a new high while the indicator did. But it is harder to get the majority of stocks to go up than it is to get the blue chips to go up. Once in a while it’s the other way around. I know that in the first half of 1977 the A-D line and secondary stocks climbed steadily while the blue chips fell steadily. I am going to try to find the A-D, SPX, and INDU charts for 2008 and see if that was as clear-cut an example as 1977.

            • valunvstr says:

              You can call it a negative divergence, I won’t. The divergence you are talking about works with some oscillators and not with others. Example, Stoch and RSI give the exact opposite signal when then “divergence” happens. For RSI it is bullish, and for STOCH is is bearish. I don’t see the this indicator has a signal with this kind of divergence. And again, it happened it in May 2008 and the market collapsed.

        • nsteve24 says:

          bold move right now with April going to be high season for US oil sector bankruptcies

        • simpleiam says:

          And they’re going to get cheaper… Much cheaper.

  26. Thanks Tony.

    They are sneaking in an NFP report next Friday. Recently pre-NFP weeks have been mostly positive, but the ones down have mostly been followed by bad NFP weeks. Since the May 2015 high, negative pre-NFP weeks were all (three) followed by negative NFP weeks.

    In fact, the last two in July 2015 and January 2016 both gapped down and stayed down. January was down 120 or more, and last July was down about 45 or so. Over the past few years, its been mostly like this, but not always. Bad pre-NFP is mostly followed by a bad NFP week.

    • ewmarkets says:

      Thanks for the stats. What about positive pre-NFP week? What have followed them (positive, or negative)?

      • Working backwards from the 8 positive months as follows… March 2016, February, December 2015, November, October, September, August, and before that December 2014.

        As follows for max downs and changes in NFP weeks -16/52, -68/-60, -48/2, 2/20, -50/20, -86/-78, -36/-26, -18/7. So 5 of those 8 ended up, but a few of em saw decent intraweek downside.

        • ewmarkets says:

          Thanks for compiling the stats. The average down is -54 and the average up is 20. In only one occasion, the market was up by 52. After that, the next best scenario is up 20. Adding the negative pre-NFP week result, one can say that next week is unlikely to have a lot of upside but it can have a lot of downside.

          • Exactly. Not sure, but I’m guessing the thinking is that an overly-done NFP result (which there are always tons of projections on etc). will lead to imminent tightening or something. For that move down from December, it was right after the Fed raised, and it was almost like nobody really believed em til they did it. Bizarre.

  27. torehund says:

    Happy Easter Tony.
    And thanks to all contributors making Tonys blog the place to be..

    • ewtoriginal says:

      I, for one, rarely say it enough, but Tony is a true Saint to maintain this site and the decorum necessary to keep the rest of us well fed be we bullish or bearish. Thanks Tony.

    • simpleiam says:

      Happy Easter, tore. Are you at home in Norway?

      • torehund says:

        Happy Easter Simple, yes I am stuck here for now. Parted from the waves, but distance makes the love stronger. Not wasting time though, I train Calisthenics, paddle in a pond and do the spiderman(Gorilla)-walks in the forest. The latter is a newbie in my training regimen, it doesn’t erase losses in my trading account but brings enormous physical joy(energy doesn’t disappear it only transforms). Since I started that type of training the market has not been looking back 🙂 Maybe it comes to you for a reason….
        Enjoy spring in the US.

        • fionamargaret says:

          ..not a word about fit-bit, gyms etc…..see, we managed just fine before – God gave us a playground, and an acrobatic mindset to figure it out…..xTore

  28. ewmarkets says:

    Happy Easter weekend! Some say it’s neither a bull market nor a bear market but a “bunny market”–hopping up and down and going no where:

  29. fotis2 says:

    Tony and everyone else hope you all have a lovely Easter 😉 😉 😉

  30. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony
    Happy Easter !

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Hey Lee, the crude short was a an early Easter Bunny treat
      top right within the mid of the suggested zone 42.25-42.84 at 42.49 and dropping into the low $38 as suggested hitting 38.33 today …. $4160 per contract ….. squeezing 80% of that swing should not have been a problem for anyone willing to take the risk 😉

      • Lee X says:

        Nice job El Mat !
        It’s never easy but kind of a clean looking chart since $26
        You’re an oil dude now 🙂

        • fionamargaret says:

          …El Mat gave himself away when he said ole, and it was interpreted by Canadians as oil, eh….

          • fionamargaret says:

            that’s how you become recognized…well done El Mat….I do like when you “chart & explain” xx

  31. I wouldnt want to get much in front of myself, but I found the close almost perfect on preparing next leg down. Gap filled perfectely and capriciously. Dang!. And we are at 50% retrace. Dang! Kissing the down trend line. Re-dang ! But let see…

  32. ibra76ig says:

    Thank you very much Tony.

    I have noticed when the uptrend start while rsi (8) beneath level 30 then the uptrend will usually end when rsi (8) breaks down level 30, so this is suggests that the uptrend from 1891 (24/2) on hourly time frame for S&P500 is over. I think next week will be very interesting.

    • you have to explain me that theory…. in my view every time rsi8 gone below 30, started a new uptrend not the inverse

      • ibra76ig says:

        I can’t explain more, i apologize.
        2 charts as examples:

        • john b says:

          There is some truth in your statement, I see it as whether you use rsi5 or 8 or 9 the same principles apply. In order for a reversal of trend to happen the rsi 1st needs to register a low like the 30 area or below to turn down, or register 70 area or above 1st to indicate a possible reversal from down trend to up trend in any timeframe. After that happened, for an up trend to establish, the rsi should not go lower than 40 , and for a down trend to establish the rsi should not reach above 60. This is particularly true for the rsi9, so the smaller settings will have wider swings.

  33. 123 abc says:

    Activity thus far from the Major-b top at 2057 appears to be corrective; currently not observing any impulse waves down —unsure of what that means (Tony, any ideas?), however still feel Major-b has completed…


    Thank you Tony et al, a Good Friday to all.

  34. Arthur Knopf says:

    Here goes one for the quant guys. Several indicators outside of the VIX term structure (VXV/VIX or VTS) show that a high is close but not just yet. The VTS 20 SMA has recently reached 1.22, a high last reached in the Dec ’14 and Mar ’15 tops. Interestingly both were dbl tops about a week apart with slightly higher highs the second time.

    I noticed a Wed post using a fib .764 to indicate a high a SPX 2057, but that is not a real fib number. The sqr root of .618 is .786 and is a real fib number. From SPX 2132 (failed p5) to 1812 is 320 pts and times .786 is 252, projecting a retrace to 2064, and this would be the same as the two VTS dbl tops. Mar has been a good month (+100pts) and EOM portfolio squaring may support a pop to that level next week.

    • Arthur, in your post you say-
      “I noticed a Wed post using a fib .764 to indicate a high a SPX 2057, but that is not a real fib number.”
      But actually 0.764 is a Fibonacci number, or at least it can be. There are several different mathematical techniques when using Fib numbers and the Fib sequence. And depending on a person’s assumptions, a mathematician could conclude that either 0.786 or 0.764 are equally correct.

      Also, remember that this is a small difference, and probably esoteric in the bigger picture of the stock market when there are so many other forces to account with. GL and have a great Easter weekend.

  35. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony!Crude looks ok for a long swing 3BR on 4hour, CCI confirm and daily doji..

  36. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony! Perhaps today’s action was nothing more than a drift higher into the 3-day holiday weekend – which is usually the case during holiday weekends. Short-term (hourly) oversold condition from this morning is gone, so that’s good for the bears.

  37. kvilia says:

    Thank you Tony. Good weekend to you and yours.

  38. simpleiam says:

    Thanks Tony. Markets closed tomorrow should be a welcomed break for you. It will be for me.
    Happy Holiday to All!

  39. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. Have a good Friday. 🙂

  40. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC. 34ish down, 13ish up, and 34ish down next to complete int iv?? Fib city on anemic volume.

  41. roksha69 says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Added to shorts a little at the close. The NDX weekly chart looks quite interesting…

  42. vivelaamo says:

    Thanks Tony. Time for a break

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