SHORT TERM: gap down opening: then rebound, DOW +13
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.6%. Europe opened lower and lost 1.7%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported unchanged at 265K, plus Durable goods orders were reported lower: -2.8% v +4.9%. The market gapped down to SPX 2025 at the open, hit 2022 in the first few minutes, then began to rise. The market had closed at SPX 2037 yesterday. Heading into the close the market nearly closed the gap, ending the day/week at SPX 2036.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.10%. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold dipped $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Q4 GDP (est. +1.0%) at 8:30, and the market is closed for a holiday.
The market gapped down at the open today, traded down to the 2019 pivot range, and then rebounded for the rest of the day reaching the 2043 pivot range by the close. At the open the market broke through the lower trend line of the rising channel created during this uptrend. As noted yesterday, the next two important events would be a drop below SPX 2009 and then SPX 1969 to keep this potential downtrend going. Currently it looks like the bears have little conviction as they fear getting steam rolled again by the BTD bulls. Short term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit quite oversold this morning, then rose above neutral by the close. Best to your holiday weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped
LONG TERM: bear market