SHORT TERM: lower open: lower close, DOW -80
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.1%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.1%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market opened five points below yesterday’s SPX 2050 close. At 10am New home sales were reported higher: 512K v 494K. Just before noon the market hit SPX 2038, and then tried to rally. Just past 2pm the rally topped at SPX 2047, and the market started another pullback. A lower low followed around 3:30 at SPX 2035. Then the market bounced to close at SPX 2037.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Bonds gained 16 ticks, Crude lost $1.65, Gold dropped $27, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods at 8:30.
The market opened lower today, traded down to SPX 2038 (it’s lowest level since Thursday), rallied to SPX 2045, then broke the 2043 pivot range when hitting SPX 2035 around 3:30. The first sign of a potential uptrend top has occurred. While the 2043 pivot was broken, and then recaptured, the lower trend line of the rising channel was not broken. That needs to occur next to add confidence to a downtrend underway. After that the market needs to drop to SPX 2009, and then SPX 1969, to keep the downside momentum going. Short term support drops to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to oversold today, ending with a slight positive divergence. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped
LONG TERM: bear market