Thursday update

SHORT TERM: new uptrend highs, DOW +156

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.3%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 265K v 259K, and the Philly FED was reported higher: 12.4 v -2.8. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 2027 close, then dipped to 2022 by 10am. At 10am Leading indicators were reported higher: +0.1% v -0.2%. Then market then began to rally. Around 2:30 the SPX hit 2046, then dipped to 2041 to end the day.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds rose 9 ticks, Crude rallied $1.65, Gold lost $5, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment at 10am, and it’s Options expiration Friday.

After the SPX futures were lower overnight they rallied heading into the open. The market opened slightly lower, dipped a bit more by 10am, and then staged another rally to make new uptrend highs at SPX 2046. Oddly today, while the SPX/DOW gained 0.8% the NDX/NAZ were mixed with the NDX actually negative. For the past week or two the DOW has led the rallies, the NDX/NAZ have lagged, and the SPX has been in the middle somewhere. Seems that the defensive, cyclical stocks, an beaten down stocks have been rallying, while the growth stocks have been dragged along. Could be wrong, but the NDX/NAZ is not leading like it had done for the entire bull market. Nevertheless, the uptrend hit the 2043 pivot range and closed there. Short term support is at the 2019 and 1970 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum hit extremely overbought at the highs and then backed off some. Best to your trading this relentless uptrend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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408 Responses to Thursday update

  1. One last update for today. Ran into a little round number resistance at 2050, but up wave looks incomplete. Could get a ‘pump & dump’ Monday, to complete the fifth wave, and start another correction.

    Note how the “running triangle” completed properly with wave ‘e’ coming back down over the prior 3rd wave, as is required in a running triangle. Then, there was the thrust out of the triangle.

    Also, I tried to use the ES 30-min chart, and this chart in combination, to show you how these magical set-ups using divergences and candlesticks in an uptrend can be ineffective when used in untrained hands. When used in combination with Elliott Wave, they offer more of a complete story.

    Oh, and, by-the-way, even though the “running triangle” provides alternation for the ‘flat’, on such a small degree chart, it is still a “bullish” indicator, because it has a higher b wave inside the triangle. Higher b waves point in the direction of market up; lower b waves point in the direction of market down.

    SP500 (5 Min)  3_18_2016b

    Cheers and enjoy the chart and your weekend.

  2. Just Added more shirts to the spx via sds. Added yesterday at 2039 and today 2050. Slowly building position.

    The sp500 is the only index that is rallying so hard. World indexes are not following and midcap and small cap are trailing instead of leading. It will come. At least a correction!

  3. mike7x says:

    Are we in a rut?

  4. phil1247 says:

    took profits at 2050

    had enough

    good weekend all

  5. CNBC just mentioned..Monday was the lowest volume day of the year
    Today…the highest volume day of the year.All the suckers in?

  6. mike7x says:

    Nuf said…

  7. 123 abc says:

    Tony et al, anybody know why today the SPX cash exceeded yesterday’s high, whilst the SPY didn’t? —Usually both are in lockstep when it come to highs and lows. The discrepancy of an additional wave higher in the SPX cash is creating varying squiggle counts.

  8. phil1247 says:

    back testing the 2052 target again

    protect long profits here

  9. EL MATADOR says:

    BOJ purchases blamed for distorting Japan corporate bond market

    “I would have bought it at all costs had I known that it was on sale,” a fund manager at a domestic asset management institution said with frustration Friday. The fund manager learned too late from Japan Securities Dealers Association data that a Mitsui & Co. bond had been traded the previous day. The bond, with about three years to maturity, was traded with a yield of around negative 0.008% — meaning that a buyer paid a high price and would incur a loss if the instrument was held until maturity.

    Still, the fund manager desperately wanted to get hold of the bond because he bets that debt issued by Mitsui and other trading houses will be picked up by the Bank of Japan in its bond purchase program. Even if an investor buys a bond with a subzero yield, the investor could sell it to the central bank for a higher price, the thinking goes.

  10. Peter Sliney says:

    Even in bear markets only the bulls make money. It can but rarely does pay to be a bear. IMO

    • fishonhook says:

      correct. The rallies are so fierce that they rip up bears and then the turn comes before all the ‘wait for turn then short’ guys can get in. This is a strong rally into the close.

      I still have some shorts toasted and my faith in the bear market case is very rattled. But I have faith that our host is right, since I have never read him stick to something so adamantly before

      • elmer510 says:

        Well, I would never like to be bull when the bear market really starts to work its way downwards. Think of 45-50% decline, including all rallies the opposite way.
        I agree with Tony’s rule – it’s easy to be bull in bullmarkets and to be a bear in a bearmarket.
        The thing now is of course the bearmarket has just begun and still can give the bulls some relief. That won’t last long.

    • tell that to all the people who bought at 2134………

  11. phil1247 says:


    you can hit me up side the head

    im going to add even more upro

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    from the recent bottoms

    Boeing up 34%
    Berkshire up 16%
    Chevron 39%
    3M up 23%
    Home Depot up 18%
    Exxon up 27%
    Dupont up 26%
    Caterpillar up 33%
    Conoco Phillips up 33%
    Royal Dutch up 43%
    Deutsche Bank up 43%
    JP Morgan up 18%
    banc of America up 23%
    FED EX up 33%
    GM up 23%

    crazy moves from some pretty big arse companies

    • jjjzzzwww says:

      johnnymagicmoney says:

      March 18, 2016 at 12:04 pm

      last post of the day……………………

    • smarturn says:

      Those sons of bitches run the BTFD buy-back programs in full speed to sell their own shares to public before the total collapse.

  13. Bob Sagget says:

    “Cramer: Signs a massive rally could be coming”

    Perhaps a new QE announcement that has now trickled down from Shanghai G20?

  14. stephenk1980 says:

    Finally, it’s done (the upside). Only a significant pullback and not the wave c bear leg though.

  15. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Saved a lot of aggravtion and 70 spx pts
    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    March 10, 2016 at 12:58 pm
    From the guy that called for spx 2008-9 as top / oil low
    Unfortunately , this correction is going to be delayed. A lot of chop next 4-6 weeks. Good luck to all

    1956 is up next enjoy. 4 longs 12 shorts
    xle is the tell / watch how it acts at 59.55 / now 69.22

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    BTFD will exist as long as it doesn’t. Brain surgery statement I know but I still see the Russell wont sell off at all and the down move today in the S&P looks corrective. BTFD BTFD BTFD. melt melt melt melt Its beyond absurd at this point. Outside of computers who the hell is buying here? Gartman? Cramer? Mark Cuban? Seriously what person with tissue and bones and blood running through their veins is buying here at after this move? Please let me know so I can smack you aside the head

  17. prakashbkc says:

    TC sir,

    In dow chart seems retracement reaches more than 90% of fall from cycle [1] 17796 to 15503 so if crosses 17796 then cycle wave [2] negated????

  18. spindoc73 says:

    still leans to a market correcting its way towards a potential finishing sequence.

  19. phil1247 says:

    target at spx 2052 was hit

    market has fallen away

    key now is does it hold or do they bum rush it up to 2060 ???????

  20. captbara says:

    OMG it looks impulsive down

  21. aahmichael says:

    We just had a 60 minute down bar, and if the next hour is also down, then that will be an hourly 3BR, and would be the first sign that the market’s fever has finally broken. If that’s the case, then I’d like to offer an observation that has never been considered on this board before. It’s quite telling that 1810-2052 is only 2 points shy in length as the 1872-2116 wave. Therefore, a totally valid count would be that we just completed an irregular failure in SPX that started on 8/24. Whether you want to call it an ABC or a WXY doesn’t matter. (1867-2116-1812-2052.) So, 2135-1867 would be wave A, and 1867-2052 would be wave B.

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