Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: volatile FOMC day, DOW +74

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were flat, then lower, overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported lower: -0.2% v 0.0%, Housing started were reported higher: 1178K v 1099K, and Building permits were reported lower: 1167K v 1202K. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.5% v +0.9%, as was Capacity utilization: 76.7 v 77.1. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2016 close, then rose to 2019 by 10:30. After that the market drifted lower, hitting SPX 2010 by 1:30 ahead of the FED’s FOMC statements:, and Right after the statements were released the market rallied to SPX 2025, dropped to 2015, then rallied to 2032 around 3:30, before closing at 2027.

For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude rallied $2.15, Gold rose $26, and the USD was lower. Medium term support risess back to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10am.

The market opened slightly lower today ahead of the FOMC conclusion. Stayed in a nine point range, and then rallied to new uptrend highs after the FED released their statements. The rally from SPX 1969, and the uptrend for the matter, are still underway. Today’s low, SPX 2010, now becomes a key level as the market tries to reach to 2043 pivot range. Clearly this uptrend has now gone further than we initially expected. Short term support is now at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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461 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. torehund says:–-report-391098

    Goldman does the dirty work for the FED. Maybe they fine them and short them too….
    No wonder nothing is growing.

  2. Hi Tony,

    For the silent majority (not the trumpeters) who read your blog and the insightful comments, please do us a service and limit blackjack BJ or whatever to 3 comments a day. So freaking annoying with his Nate Kauss garbage and breadth thrust and this and that. Next week, when spx breaks 2000, he will be upset 2 weeks later that he missed the short and start talking about how bearish things are when we break 1900 on this C wave down.

    That aside…please keep up the good work


  3. fotis2 says:

    This setup looks ok for a short.

  4. steplaland says:

    Guys, i shorted at the top i believe. Will see in a few days.

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Anything is possible as I fully realize and I totally understand why someone wouldn’t want to be short until they saw some weakness or certain levels taken out but honestly how on earth can you buy long here after this move with these overbought conditions at these levels? Its just dumb.

  6. Bob Sagget says:

    I forget, the share repurchase program begins the blackout period Monday?

    • mjtplayer says:

      For some companies, yes, so tomorrow is the last day to buy, Others will have till next Thursday (Market closed for Good Friday next week).

      The buybacks have been at almost record pace, will be interesting to see if we break the single quarter record set in 2007 for total Dollar buybacks.

  7. phil1247 says:

    looks like we will get another POP!!

    selling upro on the pop

  8. NINJA SHADE says:

    Even the 2043 pivot is having a hard time containing this B… was hoping for some long tail by the close but looks like it would be yet another fat green candle.

  9. Looking at financials, Gap up tomorrow

  10. lunker1 says:

    1810+233fib=2043 pivot

  11. phil1247 says:

    phil1247 says:
    March 16, 2016 at 10:14 am
    also note…..

    .618 extension long target is 10 points higher 2045 spx..

    if things get out of control dont be surprised to see 2050

    2045 SPX target HIT……

    as george bush would say…………………

    Mission Accomplished!

    • tomasso60 says:

      good job

    • phil1247 says:

      there is still a higher target at 2052
      but we are getting indication of a micro short developing now

      • ISINCODE says:

        I also like the Simon says game, the Guessing game, Pin the tail on the donkey. ALL MY FAVORITES !!!…If 2047 doesn’t stick then it’s going to 2059…Please if your feeling depressed, stay away from your basement window…

        ISINCODE says:
        March 2, 2016 at 5:53 pm

        I love “The Price is Right Game” !!! My original target was 2035ish…but based on todays action I have a second target of 2047…..Probably not a good strategy for the “Price is Right Game” since it’s best to be under vs. older….Oh well, let’s rolls the dice !!!

  12. blackjak100 says:

    Anybody wishing for a significant top soon is out of their minds. Breadth is still strong with today’s reading of +2000. NYAD has an ATH in its grasp. Can we get a 40-50pt pullback? Yes and that would actually begin the unwinding process of strong breadth.

    • simpleiam says:

      Hey BJ, what’s going on with you the past few days? You seem upset. You know better than anyone that people on this board will do whatever they want, regardless of what anyone else says. I’m watching both sides myself.

      • blackjak100 says:

        I’m upset I missed this move higher and started half jokingly mentioning it 3 weeks ago (P5). Other than that, just calling it as I see it. This is the greatest breadth thrust in history and cannot be underestimated.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      all you got is breadth?? geeez BJ there are like 103 other things working against this market going higher and you are hanging on to breadth

      • blackjak100 says:

        103 things? Fed/liquidity is all that matters. Stocks got green light yesterday IMO. They got red light when 4 rate hikes mentioned months ago, but it turned green yesterday.

        • fishonhook says:

          So far BJ has been very right.

          • vivelaamo says:

            Man everything I come on this site after a rally it feels like Deja vu. So many people seem to be short based on a B wave which doesn’t exist or if not probably missed the move that seems to happen every year. OEW must be killing people trying to make money. Listen to BJ. He talks sense.

        • I agree, which is why today i got stopped out and i am no longer short. Cant fight the Fed even if they wrong

  13. gasman88 says:

    Call it what you want, bear market rally, continuation of a bull, but to me it’s sickening since I missed most of this move. It is Bear’s Waterloo. I scanned through hundreds of charts and the number of massive moves is just mind boggling. Many stocks went from a complete breakdown to new all time highs in 3-4 weeks. Huge parabolic moves, same as it happened in Oct ’14 and ’15. It’s almost like the blood on the streets energizes bulls and makes them charge to new ATH. At this point I don’t care, I won’t be chasing and I’m not shorting, have to wait for another setup and I don’t see one. We are only 80 points away from ATH. This market is just incredible

  14. lunker1 says:

    shorts capitulating…..getn warmer doc…

    • simpleiam says:

      lunker, do you think options got taken care of yesterday and today? It sure seems like it. Friday could actually be a quieter day. Just thinkin’…

  15. Millan Tomic says:

    FED folded yesterday, and of course fueled the reflation trade (for now), and extension above 2040. The rise in AUD looks impulsive, therefore, most likely has bottomed vs USD. This puts the whole bear cycle in the flat, rangebound scenario where the new leadership emerges (oil/commodities/metals/EM). Looking at the strength of the moves, this implies that the next downleg to be softer vs initially expected.

    I will be watching for signs of a potential turndown in AUDUSD. VIX seems keen to touch 13.

  16. kvilia says:

    For sensored ears only.

  17. valunvstr says:

    Added NYMO to the chart. For those screaming that breadth is strong. Ok, well NYMO has been falling apart for two weeks. Just like it did before the November top.$SPX&p=D&st=2015-06-03&en=today&id=p49195781033&a=445410376&listNum=1

    • stmro says:

      NYMO is the 2nd derivative of the AD line i.e its a momentum indicator. Therefore its absolute values are less meaningful and it should instead be used to identify divergence between price and momentum.

      There is absolutely no question that today’s breadth is strong. Look at the NYAD reading, which shows advancing issues vs. declining issues – this is breadth in its purest form.

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Someone said broad based rally…………QQQ is negative. Biotech getting hit hard. Facebook down big. Apple negative. Amazon down big. JP Morgan down. Walmart, Merck, JNJ down. Sorry but I think 2045 was it

    • stmro says:

      Why not reply to me directly instead of saying ‘someone’. Naming a few stocks doesn’t invalidate my point. Look at my reply to valunvstr.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        someone is challenging me but I will refrain from commenting =)

        • stmro says:

          Ok ok, someone will refrain from challenging you and instead make generalised comments towards the entire board. Maybe someone will start using the word “everyone”.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            when I said someone I didn’t remember nor did I care who said it to be blunt. don’t get your panties in a wedge. I just don’t see this as crazy crazy breadth. Too much red on my screen with big names

Comments are closed.