SHORT TERM: volatile FOMC day, DOW +74
Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were flat, then lower, overnight. At 8:30 the CPI was reported lower: -0.2% v 0.0%, Housing started were reported higher: 1178K v 1099K, and Building permits were reported lower: 1167K v 1202K. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.5% v +0.9%, as was Capacity utilization: 76.7 v 77.1. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 2016 close, then rose to 2019 by 10:30. After that the market drifted lower, hitting SPX 2010 by 1:30 ahead of the FED’s FOMC statements: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a.htm, and http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316b.htm. Right after the statements were released the market rallied to SPX 2025, dropped to 2015, then rallied to 2032 around 3:30, before closing at 2027.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.50%, and the NDX/NAZ were +0.80%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude rallied $2.15, Gold rose $26, and the USD was lower. Medium term support risess back to the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims and the Philly FED at 8:30, then Leading indicators at 10am.
The market opened slightly lower today ahead of the FOMC conclusion. Stayed in a nine point range, and then rallied to new uptrend highs after the FED released their statements. The rally from SPX 1969, and the uptrend for the matter, are still underway. Today’s low, SPX 2010, now becomes a key level as the market tries to reach to 2043 pivot range. Clearly this uptrend has now gone further than we initially expected. Short term support is now at the 2019 and 1973 pivots, with resistance at the 2043 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day overbought. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend
LONG TERM: bear market