SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW -5
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher, rallied, and then dropped 1.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, and before the open on the ECB actions. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 259K v 278K. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1995, rallied to 2005 by 10am, and then started to pullback. Around 11:30 the SPX hit 1976, rallied to 1984 by noon, then hit the low for the day at 1969 just past 1pm. At 2pm the Budget deficit was reported slightly higher: $192.6B v $192.4B. The market continued to rally after that low and hit SPX 1993 by 3:30, then dipped to end the day at 1990.
For the day the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost -0.20%. Bonds dropped 14 ticks, Crude slid 35 cents, Gold rallied $20, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2043 pivots. Tomorrow: Export/Import prices at 8:30.
Wild day! The market gapped up at the open on overnight buying and comments by the ECB’s Mario Draghi. By 10am the SPX nearly hit Monday’s high of 2006. Then the market sold off, taking out Tuesday’s SPX 1977 low, and hit 1969 in early afternoon. After that the market rallied all the way back to positive territory in the last hour of trading. Quite a volatile day after a very quiet week. Thus far, the market has failed to reach Friday’s SPX 2009 uptrend high on two attempts: Monday and then again today. The action since that high has been quite different from anything we have observed during the entire SPX 1810-2009 uptrend. The decline from the high could be counted as a Minor 1 (1977), Minor 2 (2005), and Minor 3 underway. Still waiting for the market to break SPX 1963 to post a tentative Major B label. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2009 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum hit oversold at today’s low, then ended the day above neutral. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend may have topped
LONG TERM: bear market