Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: another gap down opening, DOW -110

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.5%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down at the open to SPX 1989. The market had closed at SPX 2002 yesterday. After the open the market continued to chop its way lower until hitting SPX 1980 by 11am. After that it started to rally. The rally continued into the afternoon when the SPX hit 1994 around 1:30. Then the market reversed and headed lower. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1977, then bounced to close at 1979.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.90%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 1.05%. Bonds gained 20 ticks, Crude dropped $1.65, Gold slipped $6, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2043 pivots. Tomorrow: Wholesale inventories at 10am.

The market gapped down at the open for the second day in a row. The last time it had two consecutive gap down openings was when the market was declining from SPX 1947-1891. With today’s early activity the market has now pulled back 32 points from Friday’s SPX 2009 uptrend high. Nothing unusual yet during this 200 point uptrend. We are, however, observing a short term signal that the uptrend may have topped. Still need a drop below SPX 1963 to add conviction to this possibility. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2009 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum touched oversold at today’s lows, bounced, then headed back down. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

206 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. magnus1234 says:

    ECB: The wo most important actions announced IMO is

    1) TLTRO II (A huge finance guarantee for EU Banks)
    2) Investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations eligible for regular purchases.

  2. Arthur Knopf says:

    Saw this AM, but out most of day so no post. Something to consider.

  3. manunidhi21 says:

    Just a reminder today was the day 2009 around 2:00 pm when the bull started walking.

  4. fotis2 says:

    Think CL may make a pullback waitng for a close bellow+100..

  5. john b says:

    possible on my snp chart as long as the low holds, zz down and now the correction is ending with a triangle, then higher again

  6. manunidhi21 says:

    Namaste Tony.

    everybody is short WTIC. How many waves are you counting for minute c to complete minor b on daily wtic chart ?

  7. johnnymagicmoney says:

    All the last two days did was send the Dow down like 50 points and the S%P down about 1% but more importantly work off some overbought conditions short term. Furthermore oil is breaking out and is completely shrugging off anything bad. When Bears can’t rely upon massive builds and they see price going up why on earth would they not cover here? Lastly I don’t see any bearish behavior here. The “action” in the market is saying we are going higher. A lot of people on here keep moving their tops or hoping the top is in. Now wondering if this goes higher than where most people are projecting (say 2040 – 2080) or wondering if most are wrong on here and the bull is not over. Very very few on here said it was a bear until Tony said it was a bear. Now most are saying its a bear. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm .

  8. john b says:

    pfm225 ,you asked a question,got answers, so what should you do now?

  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Below is the S&P500 (on the left fall of last year off the 1872 low and on the right off the 1810 low in Feb). * denotes a HH intraday. After the 18th day the S&P moved another 1.5% (after the ECB met) before it topped at 2116 on day 25. Maybe Mario injects one more big bump squeezes a crap load of shorts out and pushes the S&P to the 2028 to 2040 range?? Then it peters out slowly and falls apart the 3rd week of March just when Bear give up and Bulls think its safe??? Or is the top in?

    1 UP* UP*
    2 UP* UP*
    3 UP* UP*
    4 UP* DN
    5 DN* DN
    6 UP* UP*
    7 UP* DN
    8 UP* UP
    9 UP UP*
    10 DN* DN*
    11 DN DN*
    12 UP* UP*
    13 UP* UP*
    14 UP* UP*
    15 DN* UP*
    16 DN UP*
    17 UP* DN
    18 UP* UP
    19 DN
    20 DN
    21 UP*
    22 DN*
    23 DN*
    24 UP*
    25 UP*

    On Day 17 & 18 of the rally last fall from 1872 the S&P moved 3% on ………………
    Mr Draghi announced that alongside producing its updated forecasts for the December meeting, the ECB will also review ‘a whole menu’ of monetary stimulus options. QE remains part of that menu, with Mr Draghi re-iterating a commitment to adjust the ‘size, composition and duration’ of the programme if needed. But other options are possible. For example, it was revealed that the general council discussed the possibility of a further cut to the deposit rate, which currently stands at -0.20%. Indeed, a whole array of options are bound to be discussed in the runup to the December meeting, with Mr Draghi highlighting that the ECB is currently in a state of ‘work and assess’ rather than ‘wait and see’.

  10. purplember says:

    if SP goes above 2009 level, do we have 5 waves up and we’re in wv 4 ?? or do you read these as corrective from 1812 ??

  11. My thinking is that Draghi makes up for a disappointing Dec announcement and overdo the stimulus–sending equities higher and Euro and gold lower.Therefore I cut my GdX from 40 to 15%.If I m wrong and gold rallies above 1280 I ll get back on.The risk for a huge down day is substantial–especially since it didn t break out like it should have.Good luck all.

    • ewtoriginal says:

      Or perhaps the market bid the last 65 handles on the expectation of a Mario superplan. That final rally excludes the original 130 handles off the low. Hit the 61.8 fibonacci retrace off the low of 1820 from 2135 at 2000 (all +/-). So perhaps its a sell the rumor/hope?
      Plus John Gutfreund just died (for old timers)

  12. 7dayyss says:

    Has anybody brought up a chart of $GTX in Tradingview? I assume they just don’t have it in their database?

  13. Newbie, need a good old fashioned bear dance to get things rolling. ?

  14. captbara says:

    ES starting to fall out of its rising wedge

  15. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Si Deve Pagare

    Mario Mario what will you do?
    The Euro is now just a big piece of poo
    Negative Forty or Fifty on rates?
    Has Mr. Deflation announced a check mate?
    How bout some more bonds that cant be repaid?
    The Spanish and Italians must get you laid
    Maybe some new bonds to the angst of Wolfgang
    The French and the Portuguese must get you banged
    Maybe some stocks or big ETF’s
    Wolfgang is screaming but maybe your deaf
    How bout some oil to give you that price
    Maybe just maybe Mr. market plays nice
    Or go ask the Donald since he knows what to do
    Bankrupt casinos, ECB, and Taj too
    I say you drop money from copters galore
    Then the Dutch and the Greeks can buy you some whores!
    Or maybe just maybe on Thursday you’ll say
    It’s time for you socialists to buck up and pay

  16. EL MATADOR says:

    good chance of DT in CL if it can reverse and sustain trading below 37…below 36 game over and a run to 30ish will be in the cards….my 2c

Comments are closed.