Thursday update

SHORT TERM: market watches GOP star wars, DOW +45

Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.8%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.3%. US index futures were higher, then lower, overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 278K v 272K. The market opened three points below yesterday’s SPX 1986 in another quiet opening. At 10am ISM services was reported lower: 53.4 v 53.5, and Factory orders were reported higher: +1.6% v -2.9%. The market continued its pullback until hitting SPX 1977 at 10:30. Then after a rally to SPX 1986 by 11am, it pullback to 1977 again by 11:30. Then the market started to work its way higher, for the second day in a row, after Europe closed. Heading into the close the SPX hit 1994 then dipped to close at 1993.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ ended mixed. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slipped 5 cents, Gold rose $20, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2043 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +185K), and the Trade deficit at 8:30.

The market opened lower today, dipped to SPX 1977, rallied back to unchanged, then dipped to 1977 again. After that it worked its way higher to a new uptrend high at SPX 1994. Since Monday’s SPX 1932 low this market has rallied over 60 points with just several pullbacks of 10 points or less. At SPX 1998 it will have equaled the largest rally, without a notable pullback, since the uptrend began. And, be within one point of a 61.8% retracement of the previous downtrend. Then there is the SPX 2000 psychological level as well. This uptrend needs to clear that SPX 1998-2000 range before it can attempt to make it to the next pivot at 2019. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1999 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum is displaying a clear double negative divergence at today’s high. Best to your trading Payrolls tomorrow!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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390 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Suggest you look at March 18….monthly opex…huge put options have been bought in the last week… there are almost 37,000 put contracts at spy $220.00 currently in the money at $20.25 …. 49,206 contracts for spy 215.00 in the money at 15.43 and 29,087 contracts at spy 210.00…in the money at 10.49…those were not there last week….with those put contracts in place there is a huge incentive to keep the market at higher levels imo….it’s almost like someone wanst the mkt held higher until the Fed meeting and announcement on march 16….if there is an increase….the market can handle the downside pressure easier from higher levels? to see the option chain…change range to ALL and the click View….

  2. captbara says:

    4th wave of some degree up next to whipsaw traders for the next 2 weeks.

  3. Watching DUST turning from -15% today to positive…somebody is buying, if you have the stomach for a huge ride maybe this is something to keep in mind.

  4. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    aamike / mush in bronx tale

  5. blackjak100 says:

    under both bull/bear scenarios….2009 should not be top…rather this should be a 25-30pt 4th wave pullback. Under the bull scenario, minor 3 of Int 3 is already longer than minor 1.

  6. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I will add a tidbit

    Some people like to use this board as a contrarian indicator but I said recently that this board is not indicative of the masses. I will however introduce the ACI (Anger Correlation Index). When this board reaches max anger and people want to punch each other in the face the most, that generally signals a reversal. People on here were ready to go nuclear

    Long live the ACI!!!

    PS – I will come up with a mathematical formula so anyone can chart the ACI for an additional tool.
    Maybe percentage of posts that are either a) salty b) outright angry c) incendiary d) boastful

  7. john b says:

    sure is fast down,must be simba covering

  8. Page says:

    VIX has started its move and you have seen nothing yet … Wait and see next week 😀

  9. ISINCODE says:

    I originally targeted 2035 and then 2047 but with all the hysteria on this board and folks jumping out of basement windows I hope this is the top….for all of our sakes !!!…but I doubt it.

  10. 123 abc says:

    Come on Tony, stick that Major-b label on it already! 😉

  11. aahmichael says:

    I’ve been traveling the past few days and haven’t had time to post here, but it looks like to me that the move up from 1810 could be complete at 2009, as an ABC (1930-1891-2009)
    A=120 points. C=118 points.

  12. tawcap says:

    Like most here I’ve been caught shorting a bit too early and its getting painful now. However, I’m staying with the bear market call. To understand how we could fall straight back down I’m thinking about why we’ve gone straight up. The main reason I believe is the rally in commodities, whether short covering or genuine buying interest im not sure and this needs to reverse for us to fall back. Brent has rallied towards $40 and copper to $50 with no change in the fundamentals, most of the miners I follow are at new highs for 2016 while the indices are still down, which I think is bearish divergence. China has there policy meeting at the weekend and import/export data out on Tuesday, both of which are obvious catalysts for at least a pullback. I’m seeing the spx falling back towards 1970 early next week but another rally attempt into the ecb meeting. It’s gone higher than I thought it would but it’s an obvious place for some selling pressure as most bears were in early and most bulls expecting higher. The catalyst isn’t the US economy which has had ok data this week, it’s China… And attention turns to Asia now


    1999 close enough

    Bullish % index at highs not seen in a LONG TIME on SPY

    And NYMOT way off the screen…

    Got some March 18 $200 strikes SPY puts at $2.39

  14. steplaland says:

    Is this wave 6 of 7 or could be. Lost track as no one seems to be asking anymore latley.

  15. zvyezda says:

    Intraday, SPX, the last four hours, three peaks and a dome?

  16. GYN LAB says:

    Finally some signs of reversal off 2009.. Looks like the Skynet ran pretty much all buy stops above the 2000/17k level, overshooting 9/60pts which would have taken out fair amount of OTF shorts as well as daytrade shorts. Will be watching the next 1.5hrs, I think it is important to get at least a doji, and some red on the candle will certainly help with the bear case. Could this be the top? Break below 1973 pivot early next week confirms IMO

  17. We have a 8 point move down gentlemen,, the bear is back!!!! 🙂

  18. cosmos77 says:

    Was that a bell ringing I heard at S+P 2009? Sounded like one to me, so I bought UVXY at 16.20 :o)

  19. steplaland says:

    We need lessons on wave psychology i think. Isnt this wave doing what it should do to early believers of bear market. Anyways, when this resolves itself and we look back in a month, we will see that money/baton handed over from weak bears to strong ones.

  20. simpleiam says:

    Just a small FYI for those who’ve not traded a Secular Bear / Cyclical Bear before. If you weren’t alive and/or watching stocks in the 1970’s, the swings in the DJI (not SPX) were between the 700 level, to as high as 1000! Think of how huge that percentage is. This went on for about 8 years! On Friday nights, NBR & WSW produced the pundits who were constantly proclaiming the Bear is over, or was about to be over. Most all of them were wrong. As I said, this went on for years.

    I don’t know how long this Bear will last; my personal opinion is a little different than Tony’s and Dr. Boom’s (mine is a longer duration), so those who really want to work this, just be prepared for huge moves, because that’s the way The Bear works.

    GL All! Have a great weekend.

  21. johnnymagicmoney says:


    2009 BEAR END YEAR

    2 + 9 + 1 + 3 = 15 BULL END YEAR

    SRI (Statistical Reversal Indicator) ………………I am calling it right here. THIS IS IT!!!!!!!!!!!!! SELL MORTIMOR SELL!!!!!


  22. phil1247 says:

    close enough to target for me

    took profits on upro
    good weekend all


  23. Page says:

    NYMO will be close to 120 today so how high it will go after that? 🙂

  24. mjtplayer says:

    SPX 200 day MA lies at 2,023

    Curious, the downtrend line connecting the lower highs at 2,104 and 2,081 is at 2,023 on Monday; interesting resistance area if we get there.

  25. captbara says:

    Who was that guy posting those retailer bear fund interest charts a few days ago?

  26. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Just did my last shorts here. Will remove them as soon as the count is changed to Primary V


    • fishonhook says:

      Maybe Tony will change that on his week-end up-date. The missing P5 turns up and we are in a bull market again

  27. jeffbalin says:

    The s&p and Dow have done what I need for a top, but not the naz. So I expect more highs. 2019+. However I also said that at the major A bottom, the s&p and naz have gone down enough, but the Dow hasn’t. And, the Dow ended up with a failed 5th and whoosh went the market up and whoosh went my profits because I didn’t believe it could be true.

  28. stan502 says:

    XOMA – in the go fish high risk category; Last Nov this was one of Bret Jensen’s top picks in the low price biotech space which has since been decimated, they have a couple of interesting licensing deals with major players and report after-market Tuesday Mar 9 (do your own due diligence). Triggered SAR buy this morning on the daily FD poco

  29. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    2008 Weekly prop hit . Do not see much more / added more shorts

    If only Tommy D would have listened to his programs

  30. johnnymagicmoney says:



    • Simba Simba says:

      None of you have learned anything yet. It’s quite comical to watch, really.

      • can you please explain what the hell you are talking about? powerful moves like the ones from 2/11-2/17 and from the 24th til now are very rare. what have we not learned?

      • fishonhook says:

        You need to learn some humility buddy. What was the last name you used

      • EL MATADOR says:

        Dude relax, there is still room to run before bull can prove itself. Since you are so confident in your ongoing Bull Market call, lets do a gentlemen bet
        SPX makes new ATH before new LL you win
        SPX breaks SPX 1810.1 low before new ATH I win

        What say you old Bull?

  31. steplaland says:

    2008 top would be very fitting.

  32. blackjak100 says:

    Int 3 will exceed int 1 in length once 2011 is breached…very close…of P5 of course

  33. phil1247 says:

    looks like straight up to target without pullback

  34. blackjak100 says:

    TC by default if 2135 is exceeded, is this P5 in OEW terms?

  35. gtoptions says:

    Final thoughts.
    SPY topped at the WR3 last three weeks. Hit it in pre-market, should end the day near or above it.
    If the SPY holds the MR2 during the next pullback, then I would look for a possible stretch to MR3.
    Not trading advice. Just a bit of ‘Strategery’ ! 😉

    • robnaardin says:

      Back test of the 50 ma before going higher, is my guess.

    • simpleiam says:

      Hey gto! Can’t seem to access your link, but going by your previous posts, it’s interesting that another very exceptional chartist/trader (Dr. Boom) thinks it will be 2025-50ish. Good stuff. Have a great weekend!

      • gtoptions says:

        Thx M.
        Sorry about the broken link. Free trading view website not reliable. I’ll post charts through wordpress from now on. Enjoy your weekend.

  36. gasman88 says:

    Can’t wait for the weekend update, will Tony hint of a possible alt count that could revive the bull 🙂

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