Wednesday update

SHORT TERM: quiet opening, higher highs, DOW +34

Overnight the Asian markets gained 3.1%. European market opened higher and gained 0.3%. US index futures were lower overnight, and at 8:15 the ADP index was reported higher: +214K v +205K. The market opened four points below yesterday’s SPX 1978 close, ticked down to 1971, and then rallied back to 1978 by 10am. Then after a pullback to SPX 1969 by 10:30 the market rallied to 1981 by 11am. Another pullback followed to SPX 1971 by noon, then the market rallied again. At 2pm the FED released its Beige book: Heading into the close the market hit SPX 1987, then ticked down to close at 1986.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 0.15%. Bonds dropped 7 ticks, Crude gained 50 cents, Gold rallied $9, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2043 pivots. Tomorrow: weekly Jobless claims at 8:30, then Factory orders and ISM services (est. 53.0) at 10am.

After yesterday’s uptrend high at SPX 1978, the market opened lower today, bounced around, and then hit 1969 in the first hour of trading. After that it worked its way higher to set a new uptrend high at SPX 1987. With the clearing the of the 1973 pivot range the next target appears to be SPX 1999, the 61.8% retracement level of the downtrend. No change in the short term or medium term count. Short term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1999 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the day with a potential negative divergence. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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317 Responses to Wednesday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I see three scenarios

    1) This just melts up to close at 1999 then the jobs report comes out tomm and is not looked at positively and bam down it goes

    2) This continues to ramp up to the 1999 target and then tomm the jobs report is spun positively and BAM it gaps up huge and everyone freaks out, the bears capitulate, VIX goes down to like 14/15 and then and only then the market turns the other way early next week and gaps back down

    3) Most people on here are wrong including me and the counts have been worth a pile of dooo dooo in the last six months

    • stcoleridge says:

      With apologies to Santa Claus, October has come early.

    • simpleiam says:

      Mag, I respectfully point out that you’re too emotional to be trading, at least right now.

    • steplaland says:

      Please remove 3. That’s insult to great work by TC.

    • Jimmy Porter says:

      I have only joined about a month ago. I haven’t read anything Tony has put that wasn’t correct. The first low in Jan. he placed a? because it wasn’t confirmed. In fact it was only confirmed 2 days ago with feb being a and b. Wave b’s are countertrend rallies.
      Now, I am not trained in oew but another one but the principles are basically the same. I really enjoy what he does. He could easily not do this blog and read comments about how his count is wrong and so on.

      I personally think if you are trading based on someone else and don’t have your own game plan then something can’t blame anyone but yourself.

      I traded once today. I had a short in at 4328. I had a stop at 4333.5. There was 6 reasons I had the entry and stop where I did from moving averages to overnight trade. I was conservative on my target at 4307. Besides other things I thought there would be lots of bulls hanging around the 4300 area so I wanted to get out a little early. I could have gone long around 4300 but I had my doubts because I thought we would retrace more than we did. I missed out on a good long trade but that wasn’t my game plan.

      I lose more times than I win but the winning trades profits far outweigh my losses because I have short stops.

      SimpleIam is 100% correct when she said that successful traders have very small stops.

      In my mind, we must be getting close to the top because of comments like yours.

  2. Page says:

    Shorts will be back in control tomorrow. 😀

  3. kvilia says:

    Was that 1999 or 1993 from Fiona?

  4. stcoleridge says:

    R2K Daily RSI 5 is higher than at the Cycle wave top last June. R2K is up 2% since Tuesday’s close vs NDX 100 being virtually unchanged. New leadership or oversold bounce of the clag basket?

  5. I sold the remaining TQQQ and bought more SQQQ. Average price on SQQQ is 20.78. The Nasdaq 100 seems to be weak relative to the S&P and composite.

  6. simpleiam says:

    This Market Watch Report says expected NFP is 195K. If we see that or more, I think The Fed will see a “green means go” signal for rates.

  7. simpleiam says:

    TRIN at 0.72 indicates that some of the overbought is burning off. Needs another Big Up, perhaps?

  8. This is like Chinese water torture.

  9. mailming says:

    The volatility has not been this low since beginning of the year.

    the last two days are so quiet that look so much like a bull market.

  10. simpleiam says:

    Past lunkers mark, n heading for Ms. Fiona’s target… Anyone else here think if we see a good Jobs rept tomorrow, this might raise fear of a rate hike later this Spring? I do.

    • johnnymagicmoney says:

      this is either sooooooooo soooooooooo sooooooooo close to blasting down or this is not a Bear market and everyone is wrong. I don’t see any grey area here at all. Its one or the other. Yes I am crying like a little girl lol did another tranche of shorts here as I am crying

      • simpleiam says:

        Ok, put a magnet on your forehead and calm down the brain waves. 1st lesson, once you’ve placed money and realize it’s going against you, drop that position like a hot potato. This is one of those things that separates the really good traders from those who end up in the poor house.

        Bear market rallies are often just like the one we’re experiencing now; just as powerful as full-blown Bull mkt rallies. Unless you want to lose a lot of money by selling now, you’ll have to wait it out.

        • Jimmy Porter says:

          well put. We can agree on that one. LoL

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          I’m fine homeslice. I just want things my way. My margin of loss is negligible right now. My stops are not at this level – I just hate getting close to them. When that happens I get nervous. I don’t mind losing money I hate really bad boneheaded decisions like dumping my shorts the day before a 2% down day =)

      • rc1269 says:


        speaking for myself here but i personally wouldn’t start questioning my bear mkt call until/unless SPX closes over 2038. as you can see, that’s a long ways off. so hold on tight my friend, anything can happen.

        this is why i prefer to not pick a target and stick to it. keep your goalposts moving and wait for a turn that shows itself. i’m much better at recognizing a turn when it’s happening than i am picking the spot weeks in advance. i had an initial target of 1963, but once we got there i didn’t see any compelling follow through that signaled a turn.

        right now the direction is up. assume that’s going to be the case untill the mkt tells you otherwise.

  11. rc1269 says:

    It’s fascinating sometimes just watching the bots at work. They have a level in mind and they’re gonna get us there no matter what.

  12. phil1247 says:


    so YOU want to be my latex salesman eh ?????

  13. vicavale says:

    $NYMO is now at 101.52 at 1988. Let’s see where it ends at close.

  14. fishonhook says:

    Tony any doubts on your count?

    I don’t mean the small squiggles, I mean the whole ‘we are in a bear market’ P5 ended scenario?

    Looks like a pause to refresh to me

  15. phil1247 says:

    extension long es retested and held………..back long again

  16. So which Romney do we believe?The one 4 years ago on a video clip that shows him shaking Trumps hand and calling him a person of great economic knowledge and grateful for his endorsement…or todays Romney.Talking about changing viewpoints…Romney takes the cake.

    • mjtplayer says:

      In my view, Romney speaking today helps Trump. The support around Trump are the voters who are fed-up with Washington and politics as usual, Romney’s speech only furthers that tone.

      Today was a sad display of desperation by the Republican party elites and “establishment”. They want things to stay how they are and want control over any potential Republican President, they get neither with Trump and they’re terrified of that.

      This is exactly the reason Trump is garnering the support that he is, not just from fed-up Republican voters, but independents and even blue-collar Democrats converting to support him. More and more people have had it with Washington politics, left and right, and want major change from someone who isn’t a career politician.

      • It WOULD be better if I knew if I could believe what Trump is saying in public is how he really thinks.

      • simpleiam says:

        The NY Times published an article today (which I’m unable to post link), from 1922. Same sort of rhetoric. Not saying Trump is a Nazi, but the words and phraseology is so similar, it’s scary.

        “Those who CANNOT remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – Edmund Burke

        • fotis2 says:

          I read somewhere that every 100 years History repeats itself..

          • simpleiam says:

            Correct fotis; maybe another name or slightly different form, that’s because nobody is left alive from previous generations to recognize the signs. That’s what Edmund Burke meant by that quote.

        • ariez5 says:

          Thank you for posting, Simple. I was starting to wonder if I was the only one seeing parallels between the hateful way Trump plays on people’s fears and the way Hitler charmed Germany into the 1933 election. I am not saying Trump is a Nazi either, but who really knows what he is? The man changes all his views hourly. What doesn’t change is the ignorance, arrogance, and hatefulness with which he speaks.

          • Jimmy Porter says:

            Are you guys really comparing Trump to Hitler. Give me a break!!!

          • simpleiam says:

            Jimmy, please take a remedial reading class!!!!!

          • simpleiam says:

            Trump doesn’t frighten me; what’s frightening is that other people believe him. Sort of feels like they might have had pods placed in their basements or something.

          • Jimmy Porter says:

            That’s why I hardly ever talk politics unless I hear or read something so stupid. No one is going to change the other persons view. But to read that people are comparing Trump to Hitler is such a liberal thing to say.
            Also, people are tired of the PC stuff. Don’t wanna hurt anyones feelings. We have become a nation of wimps and people who want everything given to them instead of working hard to achieve something.
            And you want to talk about Narcissism. Who thought they were above the law and she could do whatever she wants.
            I am not supporting Trump but to read things like comparing trump to hitler is crazy talk

          • simpleiam says:

            Jimmy, who are the people that are comparing Trump to Hitler?

          • Jimmy Porter says:

            The NY Times published an article today (which I’m unable to post link), from 1922. Same sort of rhetoric. Not saying Trump is a Nazi, but the words and phraseology is so similar, it’s scary.

            “Those who CANNOT remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – Edmund Burke

            You can’t deny this is not implying he is a Nazi.

          • I don’t think Trump knows who he is. To me, he is the classic spoiled rotten brat who was born into wealth and has the temperament of a child. To put someone like that in a position of great power is scary.

        • Jimmy Porter says:

          I misread it simpleiam. However, at the same time what you wrote is very passive aggressive. I really don’t care. We aren’t going to change what we think.

          Honestly, I probably wouldn’t have posted anything if the market wasnt slow today. I only traded once this morning short and covered at 905 am. Been staring at a screen ever since.

          What do you think of the chart I posted? Am I way off?

          • simpleiam says:

            Jimmy, I don’t attempt to change the way people think about politics, except where Lyme Disease is concerned. I’m just having a conversation. Don’t know why you label me as passive-aggressive; anyone who’s been around here for a while will tell you I’m either/or, not both at the same time. 🙂 If you really didn’t care, as you say you don’t you wouldn’t have bothered posting a reply. It’s good to care, and good to reply. Perhaps you’re the one who’s passive-aggressive? My name isn’t “SimpleIAm” for nothing…

      • +1….Rommey is a big loser and said things that open him up to a lawsuit.

        • simpleiam says:

          Doubt there will be a suit, but agree with your assessment. I the idiot was going to derail Trump, he should have opened his big mouth over 6 months ago!

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          sorry but Trump is the loser. Always has been and always will be. 100% Narcissist. Narcissists don’t make great leaders but I don’t expect people who vote for him to even spell narcissist correctly let alone know what it means. If you vote for Trump you are a bigger loser than Trump

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          +999,999,9999,0000 Christie just ruined his political career. Hugs Obama and supports Trump after saying he wasn’t qualified. LOSER

          • simpleiam says:

            Actually, the Obama thing is understandable. Technically speaking, Christie owes his loyalty to The People of The State of NJ. Hurricane Sandy was a bad mamajama, and it’s his job to make sure that his State gets the necessary money for repairs. I’d shake hands and offer a hug too; remember that most in NJ are Democrats.

            What he said about Trump, and then endorsed him IS despicable.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            its one thing to take the president’s money. Its another thing to hug him and molest him like he’s your lover and BFF.

          • simpleiam says:

            Magnet, I think you’re carrying that a bit too far. JMO, and you’re certainly entitled to yours.

      • simpleiam says:

        Agree mjt, but geez. The surgeon just wasn’t charismatic enough; maybe not as skilled in big biz either, I don’t know.

    • rob623 says:

      Trump is a loose cannon. He will do what is best for his businesses and New York! He is not a negotiator. It is his way or the highway.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        I just don’t see anything redeeming about Donald. He’s made a lot of money in real estate – that’s it. Outside of that there isn’t one quality that is presidential or intellectual or admirable or of any substance whatsoever. Bush created a vacuum for a charismatic Obama could come in. Obama created a vacuum where a moron could come right in. Amazing

    • purplember says:

      GOP establishment put Mitt up to this and he was dumb enough to bite. image tarnished. Amazing how everyone on here talks about Trump but doesn’t mention Hillary giving top US secrets to our enemies and it’s ok

      • simpleiam says:

        No, it’s not okay. They both suck!

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          I realize people not liking Romney but he had class and probably would have been a decent president. But the Obama Kool aid hadn’t worn off yet and the branding of him being a rich white guy made him unattractive. So what are we doing instead? We are nominating a rich old white guy who is a pompous a hole on top of that instead!!! lol only in America

  17. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    since 1/20 accumulated 18 longs ( mostly energy )6 shorts ( financials/bio ) , now my book is 6/6 right now ..

    oil has done Part 1 — part 2 to 41.40 will happen but pull back first

    • Lee X says:

      That wouldn’t suck, Thanks

      • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

        30.90-32.08 wont feel so great first. One of my old Phibro guy’s thinks IEA are overestimating how much supply is sitting in storage, while at the same time underestimating how fast oil production is falling

    • EL MATADOR says:

      Nice work Darkness, are you still expecting 2008-09 SPX?

      • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

        irrelevant to me. i am confident that r2k has 3-4 % left from here .see pause for sure & not sure of the refresh – hence my neutral position . Imo , going to take LONGER than most think. $usd is looking 1998 in a bad way , not great for stocks. day by day & clear head. gl

  18. johnnymagicmoney says:

    Is that an ascending wedge on crude dating back to 2/12 ready to break???

  19. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    SPY/SPX ~ ‘d’ wave of Int. C or complete?

  20. blackjak100 says:

    NYAD +800

  21. mjtplayer says:

    nostraightpath60 says:
    March 3, 2016 at 10:09 am
    Having trouble recreating your purple trendline – I tried on both charts and free stockcharts and looks like it should be sloped much higher-Perhaps help to have your chart show entire trend from origin to current.

    Also while the horizontal resistance line can be seen as former support turned resistance and agree retesting that line, if I understand Bulkowski correctly, shouldn’t the HS neckline in this case be a upward sloped line connecting the two low neck bottoms in which case a retest would be somewhere up around 110?

  22. Lee X says:

    Any thoughts on WTI ? I’ll hang up for my answer

  23. torehund says:

    ..looks unfinished to the downside on price, Macd tends to disagree.

  24. Looks like gold is going up and up. Bought some dust yesterday, will sell at a loss today

  25. simpleiam says:

    Looks like another C&H forming on the 3 and 5 min charts.

    • simpleiam says:

      OMG, this C&H is beautiful! Looks like a big move to the upside coming if it holds.

      • simpleiam says:

        Busted, bigtime!

        • elmer510 says:

          A one day cup and handle – is not well known here in Europa. Actually, I never heard about that before.

          As one book tells:

          “Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.”

  26. Pretty funny here seeing Bears shxx their pants

    This is a normal ABC rally from 1810-1999 area… by the end of a C wave in a Wave 2 of major degree everyone is supposed to be Bullish, that is the point of it…

    1882 on deck once 1999 pivot hits, there is an outside shot at 2050 even but not seeing it as likely

    • purplember says:

      watch cnbc this morning. data better and recession off the table now. many think FED will raise rates 2-3 times in 2016 not 4 times…..

    • simpleiam says:

      Thus far, lunker’s called it at 1987, but it ain’t over till it’s over.

    • EL MATADOR says:

      “Pretty funny here seeing Bears shxx their pants”

      Did you do a poll or something? I don’t recall be asked if I was shee-iting in my pants….therefore I assume you must be assuming and probably wrong too. 🙂

    • Jimmy Porter says:

      Absolutely agree. Posted something the other day about how wave 2 is my favorite wave. People start feeling over optimistic, bears are second guessing themselves, etc.
      I even have to stop myself from falling into that train of thought. Especially this time because this could easily and is being interpreted as the start of primary wave 5 with wave 4 being a flat.
      I personally only day trade and don’t hold positions. If the market doesn’t do what I think and turn were I think I get out and reassess.
      Currently, this is my top scenario I am playing. The only way I see this not forming is in this wave 3 we are in. If wave three has another massive impulse wave then this will break the pattern. Then I will go to that scenario I already have prepared.

  27. This has the “feel” of an ending diagonal inching us closer to 2000.

  28. mjtplayer says:

    Another 10:30am ramp-up, right on schedule. This has happened everyday over the past several days, right at 10:30am stocks get ramped and volatility gets smashed.


  29. kvilia says:

    I hope you have tight stops.

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Got stopeed out of uvxy yesterday but am looking to re-enter around spx 1993 level. I have a very small position left from 34 though.

      • 1993 is a point which invalidates one of the bearish count….so i am failing to understand why this number- either you hope we stay below this number or you hope we break this number depending on your view but 1993 is a neutral number which will invalidate the more bearish count

  30. phil1247 says:

    somewhat risky here ..i wont bore you with the details

    but extension long has broken finally

    short now from spx 1980

  31. Gold appears to be breaking from its handle formation(first of 2 possible buy areas).Hoping this -div on SPX leads to a selloff for that and another leap over 1260 in gold.Good luck all.

  32. CampFreddie says:

    Bears look away again, contrarian Bulls put your feet up and have a cigar … Newsletter writers remain very bearish.

    • lcd00 says:

      It’s nice that you are perpetually and categorically Bullish, but what was the state of your portfolio at SPX 1810? Never a whiff of concern from you. I expect to see you “agreeing” to bullish propositions at SPX 1740. Virtual accounts help that go down a bit more smoothly, I imagine.

      • simpleiam says:

        Okay, last post for a while here. Tony advised long ago that this is not a “trading” blog, and discouraged posting real time trades. You can if you want to do so, but just so you know the history. Arthur’s been posting quite some time here. I don’t tell anyone on the inter-fight&snoop-net exactly what I’m doing either.

    • Looks like the were at the same level of bearishness in early to mid 2008. If you remember we had a nasty bear market rally into May 2008 around the 1400 spx level. It then preceded to sell off 50% so I would not read too much bullishness into it. Time will tell.

  33. Interesting article on stealth QE?

    was not able to post link so excuse me for maybe taking up too much space.

    Liquidity moves markets!

    Europe Bank Deposits, ECB Assets and Deposits, and US
    Treasuries- Click to enlarge
    Introducing The New QE- Quantitative Expropriation, Thanks To NIRPitrage
    By: Lee Adler

    This explication of quantitative expropriation is excerpted from the semiweekly examination of Fed balance sheet manipulation and banking system elevation, part of the Pro Trader Macroliquidity services.

    While US bank loan and deposit growth continues to go bonkers at annual growth rates of more than 8% for loans and around 6% for deposits, loan and deposit growth in Europe are near zero. That’s in spite of the fact that Mario Draghi and his merry band of madmen central bankers have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at their system to try to get it to grow.

    But here’s the thing. NIRPitrage is killing them. At the same time, it is boosting the US markets. In this report I do a little show and tell on the details of what is going on and how it works.

    Unfortunately, Mario Draghi is such a raving, foaming-at-the-mouth madman, that he is likely to do even more of what is causing NIRPitrage to simultaneously strangle Europe slowly to death and send cascades of capital into the US, the Last Ponzi Game Standing.

    Why does capital flow from Europe to the US as fast as Stupor Mario can print it? This is so simple, even a caveman would get it, but unfortunately, put 12 central bankers in a room and they lock the door to keep reality out. Capital flows to the US because Europe has negative interest rates (NIRP) and the US has positive interest rates. Big investors, speculators, businesses, and securities dealers all have the option of where to send and keep their money, and if Europe is stupid enough to tax them for keeping cash there, then by god, they’ll just move it somewhere else. They’ll move it to where it’s safe, and where they can still earn a positive return, however, minuscule. That dear friends, means the good old US of A, land of the free and home of the half point, which, by the way will be heading higher soon.

    As crazy as I think the Fed is, they are beacons of sanity in the delusional world of central bankers. Insanity is relative, and in this case, that relative dose of sanity is probably just enough for the Fed to recognize that positive rates in the US help to keep our Ponzi growing as long as Europe and Japan are negative. And if the Fed raises rates, those flows to the US will grow even more. It’s not quite quantitative easing. It’s really more of a quantitative expropriation. The ECB and the BoJ do the quantitative easing, then the Fed pays just a little more for it, and the cash comes flowing across the sea in massive waves. The result is a combination of NIRPitrage and Quantitative Expropriation.

    ECB data on bank deposits for the Eurozone shows total bank deposits rebounding in January, while remaining virtually rangebound for past the year. Money printing in the form of the ECB’s asset purchases should cause a euro for euro increase in deposits, but that has not occurred. That’s because a substantial portion of the ECB’s newly printed money flees the Eurozone altogether to avoid the NIRP tax. Total deposits are barely higher than the level reached when the ECB began outright QE in March 2015. Considering that the ECB has printed and pumped about €650 billion into the European banking system since then, it’s clear that that system has sprung a very large leak.

    Where’s it going? I have constructed the chart below to illustrate what is happening. That chart shows the correlation between the ECB’s asset growth, and the size of its various deposit facilities–what economists call reserves–along with the correlation to total European bank deposits and the direction of US Treasury bond prices.

    Note the correlation between European bank deposits and the direction of US Treasury note prices (yield inverse) at the top of the chart. We obviously know that Some European deposit holders have been buying Treasuries. I have shown charts similar to this in the past which depict this correlation over the long term. This chart shows what has happened since the ECB started NIRP in June 2014.

    The lower half of the chart shows that as the ECB purchases assets (green line) there is a like increase in bank reserve deposits at the ECB. This is basic Accounting 101. The ECB buys the bonds from the banks by crediting their deposit accounts at the ECB with money it materializes by waving its magic money wand through the electronic ether.

    Those reserve deposits which didn’t exist prior to that moment instantly become very real, and absolutely immutable. They can move around on the liability side of the ECB’s balance sheet, but they can’t leave it. Banks can get rid of their reserve deposits by buying assets from other banks, dealers, investors, businesses, or governments, but that only leaves another bank with the reserve deposit. Somebody will always be stuck paying the interest on the deposit. That makes those reserve deposits a hot potato that nobody wants, but nobody can escape as cash circulates through the banking system. Gone today, here tomorrow, oops.

    The problem for the bagholding banks is that when they try to pass on the negative interest rates to customers, those customers with international connections do the rational thing, because, unlike central bankers, they are not insane. Deposit holders find the best option for their cash outside the European banking system, and the deposit leaves that system for greener pastures, most often in the US. Those deposits move frequently via the purchase of US Treasury securities or even US stocks. When the depositor buys Treasuries or US stocks, his bank exchanges his Euro deposit for US dollars and transfers the US dollars into the US account of the seller of the Treasuries. That could be a dealer, another investor, or the US government itself. The Euro deposits are thus converted to dollars and become US bank deposits.

    This is basic interest rate arbitrage, and NIRP exacerbates that to the nth degree. That’s how the ECB can pump 650 billion euros into the European banking system, and deposits in that system manage not to grow at all. Depositors aren’t stupid. They’re getting the hell out of Dodge. The only stupid ones are Mario Draghi and his fellow central banksters at the ECB and more recently the BoJ. This raving lunatic is singlehandedly keeping the US Ponzi Game markets rolling while doing absolutely nothing for Europe.

    As insane US central bankers may be, I suspect that they are just lucid enough to understand the benefits of NIRPitrage to the US Ponzi. That’s why I doubt that we will ever see NIRP in the US, and why the Fed may just follow through on its threat to gradually raise the sham Fed Funds rate (n0body really trades Fed Funds). The bigger the gap between positive rates in the US and negative rates in Europe becomes, the more capital will be encouraged to flee Europe and float US bond prices higher.

    As we’ve seen recently, and as I previously forecast, it has also been enough to foment intermittent rallies in US stocks. This ridiculous pattern can go on for a long, long time. While buy and hold is dead, these policies result in tremendous trading opportunities on both long and short sides of the market for those who are paying attention.

    • simpleiam says:

      Excellent points, Matteo! I got called back to U.S. from Italy just when Mario began rolling the bowling ball real hard. It’s going to get so ugly there. What a shame.

  34. blackjak100 says:

    If we are going to sell off with any selling pressure, the NYAD needs to stop going parabolic. Still green today.

    • blackjak100 says:

      Speaking of NYAD, its right up against its downtrend line from ATH on weekly chart. Needs to reverse very soon

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        All I see is BTFD and markets selling off just enough to work off over bought conditions so it can go higher and higher and higher. Volatility is collapsing and the Russell is breaking out now. May have to start rethinking my position …..beginning to think that most on here are completely wrong including me. This feels no different than the 14 and 15 corrections. Maybe this is what bear rallies do…..suck the Bears out and make both look retarded. Not doing anything yet but beginning to highly question these “resistance” levels.

        • mjtplayer says:

          Russell breaking out? huh? R2K via the IWM, weekly candles, massive resistance here around $106 – $107. Not only is it a backtest of the broken neckline of a massive H&S topping pattern, but it’s also a backtest of the broken bull market trend-line from the 2009 & 2011 lows (purple line). It’s also the 50% retrace area from the collapse from Nov to the Feb lows.

          I went short the QQQ’s yesterday, going short IWM today right here in the mid $106’s.

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            U go boy

          • Having trouble recreating your purple trendline – I tried on both charts and free stockcharts and looks like it should be sloped much higher-Perhaps help to have your chart show entire trend from origin to current.

            Also while the horizontal resistance line can be seen as former support turned resistance and agree retesting that line, if I understand Bulkowski correctly, shouldn’t the HS neckline in this case be a upward sloped line connecting the two low neck bottoms in which case a retest would be somewhere up around 110?

          • spindoc73 says:

            mjt: it’s not crystal clear, but a top can definitely sneak up on participants this morning. not anticipated at these prices, most looking higher it would seem.

    • mjtplayer says:

      As much as I’d like to see a large sell-off, I doubt it will happen today as we await the monthly jobs print tomorrow morning

      • blackjak100 says:

        You are correct it won’t happen today. However, NYAD +500ish with red market. Again nothing bearish about it. Just need a red close today

  35. mjtplayer says:

    Important support right here for the volatility indices.



  36. opader says:

    @ 09:15 – Support: 1960, 1950,1940, Resistance: 1995

  37. Millan Tomic says:

    Bullish narratives/stories start to creep in..Biases in peak form..This is why bear market rallies are entertaining

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