Monday update

SHORT TERM: roller coaster day, DOW -123

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.7%. US index futures traded generally lower overnight. The market opened three points below Friday’s SPX 1948 close, then bounced to 1950 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 47.6 v 55.6, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -2.5% v +0.1%. The market pulled back to SPX 1944 by 10:30, then rallied to 1958 by 11:30. After that it started to pullback again. This pullback lasted for the rest of the day as the market closed at SPX 1932.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.75%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold rose $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10am, plus Auto sales during the day.

The market opened relatively flat on the day, bounced, and then hit SPX 1944. After that the rally fell short or Friday’s SPX 1963 high, and then made a lower low at 1932. The weakness we had noted on Friday definitely made its appearance today. Thus far we still have three waves up for Intermediate wave C: 1939-1925-1963. The pullback from that high is also three waves: 1944-1958-1932. Intermediate wave C is certainly not looking too much like Intermediate wave A at this point. Let’s give the market another day or so before calling the SPX 1963 high the end of Int. C / Major B. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

This entry was posted in Updates and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

317 Responses to Monday update

  1. johnnymagicmoney says:

    finally got some – div on the SPY on the 1 min


  2. ABchart says:


    If I understand, “super tuesday” is the day republicans and Democrats choose their final candidates who will represent them in November. Who vote for them?
    If so, it will be probably Donald and Hillary. If Donald, the market will not like it. Right?


  3. blackjak100 says:

    Ralph Acampora, godfather of technicals, today said the bottom is in for stocks . This is only about 3 weeks after he tweeted on 2/11 the primary bear market was confirmed with Dow Theroy sell signal. Is he really the godfather of technicals? Is this an indication of a top now?



  4. kvilia says:

    Joined you Jim@33.5. Likely 3 points early.


  5. Lee X says:

    You guys have fun I’m heading towards Buds home state . Remember it’s only money and it’s only the internet. Get up and have a smoke and stretch once in a while.


    • tomasso60 says:

      Great Lee;
      have fun and enjoy the weather
      gave up the smokes and got a dog. more fun and gets me off the chair every hour or so.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    February 26, 2016 at 2:24 pm
    Pro Tip , Iwm trades 108.80 -110.05 , save your powder and babbling

    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    January 21, 2016 at 9:13 pm
    * Be Careful being short *
    I mentioned this earlier :
    The oil mkt is about to go on a ripper ( put in significant low over next 5 days, the game is changing quick) and i would think that to be very positive for equities.The amount of shorts on $cl are enormous. On the upper end $spx could see 1990 -2077 and $cl 39-42 next 45-50 days.
    Good luck


    • mjtplayer says:

      Heavy resistance at $105 – $107 in IWM


    • rc1269 says:

      rc1269 says:

      February 19, 2016 at 9:40 am

      So far this market seems pretty intent on following the script to a T. I’ll ask the Q again – is the mkt gonna let it be this easy?
      The answer so far – to the last time i asked the Q – has been a resounding ‘yes.’

      Is it really possible that everybody can stare at the Aug-Oct 2015 timeframe and recognize that the setup is so far nearly identical (wave count notwithstanding), and yet also have it come to fruition in the same way yet again? The market likes to surprise. Can its ability to be absurdly predictable also be a surprise? suppose we’ll find out

      gtoptions says:

      February 19, 2016 at 9:52 am

      I was also looking at that time period, technically. But, it also looks like Dec 21-28 time frame on the hourly chart. IMO

      OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:21 am

      what script ?

      OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:24 am

      Maybe one of these – i don’t know – i’m sure you don’t know either. Does your script have the Spx trading 1990 -2008 , mine does

      rc1269 says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:49 am

      >>Does your script have the Spx trading 1990 -2008 , mine does

      that would be “the script”, yes. the ultimate upside will be anybody’s guess, but that’s the general plan. which also happens to be a near replay of Aug-Oct 2015 double bottom setup, per my reference. the only difference is this one stops out at about 76.4% of the length of that one if your target comes out. personally i was favoring the 61.8% extension vs Aug-Oct, which targets a more conservative 1964. Either way, playing the double bottom analog script has already netted somebody +6.8% SPX.

      see my post from a week ago re: “can it really be this easy?”

      that script suggested we would get a strong bounce off of the double bottom. check
      then pause around 1927-1934. check
      then minor selloff. check

      now, if all holds we’ll meander up to said targets over the coming month before we head lower (thus following your other scripts regarding the “we’re going to continue lower” analog)

      so, we have that laid out. you know it. i know it. which means the bots know it. my question is, is it going to be that easy or will we get a wrench in those plans? of course it could be possible that both you and i are so much smarter than the rest of the market that even though this script seems obvious to us it is not obvious to the market. therefore it will surprise the market, but not us. it could happen


    • fionamargaret says:



    • phil1247 says:

      you have posted and reposted this three times

      you forgot to add…………… LIS


    • john b says:

      Good calls


  7. simpleiam says:

    This is likely going to be the most scrutinized last hour of trading in a long time.
    Reality = None of really knows anything, else that person would rule the world.
    GL All!


  8. john b says:

    I have st rest at 78-80 area


  9. johnnymagicmoney says:

    What I have seen all day is the 1 min RSI continually get oversold as the S&P barely sells off or moves higher……………..positive divergence all day long on the 1 min basis

    all day long…………….this market is not ready to sell off and its taking out the 1973 easily in the last hour

    F-ing BS


    • EL MATADOR says:

      these bots will try to squeeze u and give you hell until u loose your hair 😉


      • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

        18 on vix , you must be loading up ??? you have been waiting for this – tell me what you did


        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          just been dollar cost averaging my shorts on IWM and SPY …………will do the rest at 105/1990-2000 ……………….I just see the VIX as a reflection to confirm where I think the tops may be. If market were to go crazy through 2020-2040 I am out. I will give it a longer leash than many may but I don’t want market to overshoot a little bit and I sell at the worst time


        • EL MATADOR says:

          Darkness, was this question for me or Johnny?


        • fionamargaret says:

          …signal reversed today – suggesting 16 vxx


Comments are closed.