Monday update

SHORT TERM: roller coaster day, DOW -123

Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.7%. US index futures traded generally lower overnight. The market opened three points below Friday’s SPX 1948 close, then bounced to 1950 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 47.6 v 55.6, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -2.5% v +0.1%. The market pulled back to SPX 1944 by 10:30, then rallied to 1958 by 11:30. After that it started to pullback again. This pullback lasted for the rest of the day as the market closed at SPX 1932.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.75%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold rose $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10am, plus Auto sales during the day.

The market opened relatively flat on the day, bounced, and then hit SPX 1944. After that the rally fell short or Friday’s SPX 1963 high, and then made a lower low at 1932. The weakness we had noted on Friday definitely made its appearance today. Thus far we still have three waves up for Intermediate wave C: 1939-1925-1963. The pullback from that high is also three waves: 1944-1958-1932. Intermediate wave C is certainly not looking too much like Intermediate wave A at this point. Let’s give the market another day or so before calling the SPX 1963 high the end of Int. C / Major B. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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317 Responses to Monday update

  1. 123 abc says:

    Tony et al, wonder if anybody can assist with a basics question:

    Major-b has so far consisted of 7 corrective Minor waves; and corrections can also be 7, 11 or 15 waves. However, if you look at the internals of Intermediate-b, doesn’t it consist of 2 Minor waves also? Therefore, why isn’t the overall structure for Major-b thus far considered as 9 waves?

  2. Jimmy Porter says:

    I think my favorite wave at the beginning of a bear market is wave 2 or wave b depending on which wave theory you use. TV is now calling for 1810 as the base, excited about huge rallies, everyone is starting to feel warm and fuzzy on the inside that the worst is over. Everyone who was wishing they would have sold back in December and saying they would do anything to have the market go back up and then they will sell… now are thinking that it may keep going higher and make new highs so they don’t sell.
    Then the first sell off starts and everyone says that it’s just pulling back to consolidate so it can go higher like the rest of the rally from the low. Then it rebounds to sucker more people in but falls short and turns hard to the downside and everyone starts to panic.
    Then all the people who said they would sale once during wave 2 or b and didn’t hold on to their stocks thinking if it can rebound once it will do it again, while all the smart players are reaping in the profits taking the market to new lows

  3. steplaland says:

    This whole thing looks like the august drop and recovery. Getting nervous.

  4. kvilia says:

    Don’t forget a super Tuesday. Trump wins – markets will tank tomorrow?

  5. Tony, after today’s action which hit both of your pivots (1956 and 1973), will you consider the higher one again (2019) or do you think the 7 waves will do it?

  6. I just sold 50% of TQQQ at 91.81.

  7. The reason we had 1976 as one of our TOPPING pivots this week was as follows

    1810-1947 A
    1947-1892 B (55 Fib points and 38% Fib of A)
    1892-1976 C (equal to 61% of A)

    1999 is next pivot and we have 2 more convergences of 61% and 78% fib there… plus gap fill

  8. johnnymagicmoney says:

    finally got some – div on the SPY on the 1 min

  9. ABchart says:


    If I understand, “super tuesday” is the day republicans and Democrats choose their final candidates who will represent them in November. Who vote for them?
    If so, it will be probably Donald and Hillary. If Donald, the market will not like it. Right?

  10. blackjak100 says:

    Ralph Acampora, godfather of technicals, today said the bottom is in for stocks . This is only about 3 weeks after he tweeted on 2/11 the primary bear market was confirmed with Dow Theroy sell signal. Is he really the godfather of technicals? Is this an indication of a top now?


  11. kvilia says:

    Joined you Jim@33.5. Likely 3 points early.

  12. Lee X says:

    You guys have fun I’m heading towards Buds home state . Remember it’s only money and it’s only the internet. Get up and have a smoke and stretch once in a while.

    • tomasso60 says:

      Great Lee;
      have fun and enjoy the weather
      gave up the smokes and got a dog. more fun and gets me off the chair every hour or so.

  13. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    February 26, 2016 at 2:24 pm
    Pro Tip , Iwm trades 108.80 -110.05 , save your powder and babbling

    OneAndOnlyUniverse says:
    January 21, 2016 at 9:13 pm
    * Be Careful being short *
    I mentioned this earlier :
    The oil mkt is about to go on a ripper ( put in significant low over next 5 days, the game is changing quick) and i would think that to be very positive for equities.The amount of shorts on $cl are enormous. On the upper end $spx could see 1990 -2077 and $cl 39-42 next 45-50 days.
    Good luck

    • mjtplayer says:

      Heavy resistance at $105 – $107 in IWM

    • rc1269 says:

      rc1269 says:

      February 19, 2016 at 9:40 am

      So far this market seems pretty intent on following the script to a T. I’ll ask the Q again – is the mkt gonna let it be this easy?
      The answer so far – to the last time i asked the Q – has been a resounding ‘yes.’

      Is it really possible that everybody can stare at the Aug-Oct 2015 timeframe and recognize that the setup is so far nearly identical (wave count notwithstanding), and yet also have it come to fruition in the same way yet again? The market likes to surprise. Can its ability to be absurdly predictable also be a surprise? suppose we’ll find out

      gtoptions says:

      February 19, 2016 at 9:52 am

      I was also looking at that time period, technically. But, it also looks like Dec 21-28 time frame on the hourly chart. IMO

      OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:21 am

      what script ?

      OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:24 am

      Maybe one of these – i don’t know – i’m sure you don’t know either. Does your script have the Spx trading 1990 -2008 , mine does

      rc1269 says:

      February 19, 2016 at 10:49 am

      >>Does your script have the Spx trading 1990 -2008 , mine does

      that would be “the script”, yes. the ultimate upside will be anybody’s guess, but that’s the general plan. which also happens to be a near replay of Aug-Oct 2015 double bottom setup, per my reference. the only difference is this one stops out at about 76.4% of the length of that one if your target comes out. personally i was favoring the 61.8% extension vs Aug-Oct, which targets a more conservative 1964. Either way, playing the double bottom analog script has already netted somebody +6.8% SPX.

      see my post from a week ago re: “can it really be this easy?”

      that script suggested we would get a strong bounce off of the double bottom. check
      then pause around 1927-1934. check
      then minor selloff. check

      now, if all holds we’ll meander up to said targets over the coming month before we head lower (thus following your other scripts regarding the “we’re going to continue lower” analog)

      so, we have that laid out. you know it. i know it. which means the bots know it. my question is, is it going to be that easy or will we get a wrench in those plans? of course it could be possible that both you and i are so much smarter than the rest of the market that even though this script seems obvious to us it is not obvious to the market. therefore it will surprise the market, but not us. it could happen

    • fionamargaret says:


    • phil1247 says:

      you have posted and reposted this three times

      you forgot to add…………… LIS

  14. simpleiam says:

    This is likely going to be the most scrutinized last hour of trading in a long time.
    Reality = None of really knows anything, else that person would rule the world.
    GL All!

  15. john b says:

    I have st rest at 78-80 area

  16. johnnymagicmoney says:

    What I have seen all day is the 1 min RSI continually get oversold as the S&P barely sells off or moves higher……………..positive divergence all day long on the 1 min basis

    all day long…………….this market is not ready to sell off and its taking out the 1973 easily in the last hour

    F-ing BS

    • EL MATADOR says:

      these bots will try to squeeze u and give you hell until u loose your hair😉

      • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

        18 on vix , you must be loading up ??? you have been waiting for this – tell me what you did

        • johnnymagicmoney says:

          just been dollar cost averaging my shorts on IWM and SPY …………will do the rest at 105/1990-2000 ……………….I just see the VIX as a reflection to confirm where I think the tops may be. If market were to go crazy through 2020-2040 I am out. I will give it a longer leash than many may but I don’t want market to overshoot a little bit and I sell at the worst time

        • EL MATADOR says:

          Darkness, was this question for me or Johnny?

        • fionamargaret says:

          …signal reversed today – suggesting 16 vxx

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            well if 16 is the target that would fall in line with your 1999 target I assume

  17. mjtplayer says:

    Tony – uptrend confirmation yet???

    • steplaland says:

      What does this mean? Sorry, I’m always confused about this. Confirmation comes at the end of the move?

      • kvilia says:

        Tony’s proprietory indicators. In bull market confirmation is lagging the trend after reversal point but still provides for an opportunity of early enough entry. In bear market confirmation practically coincides with the end of the move, give or take. Hope Tony is not going to kill me for this ad libitum.

    • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      13 thru 34 daily + rsi ..You must be loading up on the vix

  18. kvilia says:

    Freddie vs. xuwu – brings childhod memories. Only one can raise to the top😉

  19. Gold never got more than $4 down.GDX got hit for 4% but if the -div on SPX kicks in…gold and GDX are coiled it seems to rally.Good luck all…I m adding 10% more GDX.

  20. llerias7 says:

    This fellow is about to wake up, soon…take care!

  21. kvilia says:

    First (that I remember of this rally) time RUT is lagging SPX. Pretty good indicator.

  22. Jimmy Porter says:

    Last post of day….I have seen some different layouts since I have been reading these. This is one of my charts I trade off of everyday. I thought I would show you something most people haven’t seen.


  23. Lee X says:

    Pivot time

  24. mjtplayer says:

    Using the SPX 1,947 high from 2/22 as minor A, we have a completed (or near completed) ED.

    – Hourly and daily -div’s on the SPX & DOW
    – Completed 3 drives pattern on the VIX, with each drive lower resulting in a higher-low on the daily RSI (+div).
    – Volume sucks, again. Volume has sucked for this entire rally over the past 2-3 weeks
    – The last high (Int A by my count) was on Feb 1st; would make sense if int C makes a high on March 1st; end of month shenanigans + beginning of the month new money helping to goose the markets.

    Time to roll over into major C, right here from the SPX 1,970’s

  25. fotis2 says:

    ”What goes up must come down”Newton’s law of gravity..This Market by now must have given some grey hairs…to some err to many.. err to most!! Its been…

  26. H D says:

    Super turn around Tuesday….I’ve seen some blow off tops before but this one really stinks. 1973P otherwise.
    I like the EDT, terminal patterns, you guys shared.

  27. mike7x says:

    Yo…El Mat. About a day late and a dollar “short” (pun intended)? The ZBT is currently at .61 and may very well close above .615. Late but still impressive (breadth). This rally should see Tony’s upside targets of ~1975-1999. And speaking of the big C. How about that WROC signal…today maybe? Hmmm…

  28. simpleiam says:

    Tony, is it time to roll that beautiful bean footage (Hypoxia) yet? Starting to look like it a bit.

  29. Jimmy Porter says:

    Here’s my chart for Major A being complete. There is more upside before we make new lows and the decline will be much more dramatic.

    SP Alt

  30. johnnymagicmoney says:

    as much as I would like and think that the 73 pivot would contain this rally today the last few weeks along with the action today tell me this market is so BTFD that its going to the 1980’s today. I am beginning to think almost everyone is wrong here and the markets are going to ATH’s ……………… of two scenarios in my mind………………Europe and the US disappoint and that the end of this thing and markets head lower substantially or the market knows something right here and right now and they do a coordinated stimulus just like the last few times the charts said this was going to fall apart and makes everyone’s counts worth a pile of doo doo

    • ISINCODE says:

      I agree we could reach 1980 today or very soon. Like a true (B) wave the (Bears) are starting to capitulate. (B)ut 1980 would be to predictable as the top. Looking for 2035ish to squeeze all the (B)ear juice out….(B)y then everyone will start believing we will reach ATH’s….

  31. Jimmy Porter says:

    Ok. Hopefully this will work. First time trying to post a link for a chart. It’s a little different than some others but this is one of two ways I see the sp


  32. kvilia says:

    Am I seeing it right? UVXY buy at around 30?

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Strated position at 34.30 will add all the way up to SPX 2000 if it gets that high. This thing can turn on a dime. Don’t see vix going below 16

      • kvilia says:

        I am with you, just delaying UVXY purchase a bit. Sold DUST at a fractional loss, will use the proceedings to buy UVXY soon.

  33. options, wave 5 almost done. 6 down and 7 up
    or any higher,(1973) I give greater possibility to MJ’s ED he posted this morning. other waves were like 37-39. if this goes higher then that it makes things interesting. I guess if I were the market, I would close it at 1956. Market likes super Tuesday result, wave 7 up to finish, if it doesn’t, then ED and down we go.

  34. rabbittrader1 says:

    To Holly Silver : Regarding your question of WHY (the markets must turn down here, and topped at 2135 SPX or at a failed fifth at 2116 or 2104.) The Elliot wave does Not reflect events .it reflects the leanings of collective sentiment of millions of people ,worldwide and the collective “world- conciousness”. Thus events will occur to match or even :foretell where economic factors are Leading the markets., and can be used as a predictive tool in the stock and commodities markets. The Elliot Wave is telling us the the SPX will take a major turn down and the gold will take a major turn up, and that crude oil will keep on dropping for approx 4 months. Why does this work? Why does the sun rise and set each day, why do the lemmings run off cliffs at certain times , why do cycles in prices of sugar ,wheat cotton iron ore gold ,etc keep re-ocurring (not always exactly the same , but close)? Rabbit , from New London ,CT. USA

  35. First of the month pension shenanigans my first guess.It s been a while.Avi is saying above 1975 before 1891 and its new highs on tap.What–besides oil will cause a new downtrend?Any guesses?

  36. I don’t know what wave this is, but due to the extreme overbought nature of this rally there is a decent chance today is the top. Whether it’s the 7th or 5th or whatever. Just my two cents.

  37. steplaland says:

    Started shorting here to 2000. This has been 1 stubborn bull market. V recovery in 2014, almost full recovery off aug 2015, and 2 good bounces off 1812&1810. What’s it going to take to kill this bull.

  38. EL MATADOR says:

    Well did not pan out exactly as I thought. I took profits on my ES last even at 1925 and place limit order at 1950 ES before going to bed. Totally forgot about it as it was executed this morning so I’m down approx. 15 handles….. can I handle it? Sure why not.

  39. Jimmy Porter says:

    whats a website you use to post pics that I can use to show my charts

  40. jobjas says:

    good place to short SPX- potential top Major B

  41. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I am gonna guess that the sixth wave pull back is here right at the 1973 pivot (1970) right around to the 56 pivot…………………..then one more push into say tomorrow up to 1985 to 1995 and then an intraday reversal starting Major C

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Sounds good Jonny

    • camper1888 says:

      are u sure there is gonna be a WAVE 7 ? how about a fail wave 7 ?

    • simpleiam says:

      We were in the 6th wave yesterday, so if you’re seeing a pullback (I don’t see it yet.), then it’s 7th wave.

      • johnnymagicmoney says:

        According to Tony the fourth wave didn’t end until yesterday’s low. The HH today (above the 1963 level) makes us in the fifth. Whenever this pulls back there should be one more HH (presumably at this point around 1990 – 2000). If we don’t get a pullback soon then I might say this ends 2020 to 2040

        • simpleiam says:

          “…Thus far we still have three waves up for Intermediate wave C: 1939-1925-1963. The pullback from that high is also three waves: 1944-1958-1932.”

          Guess I must have misunderstood…

          • johnnymagicmoney says:

            Tony – does 1932 end the fourth wave?


            tony caldaro says:

            March 1, 2016 at 9:56 am

            4th of 7?


  42. This ‘potential’ diagonal is now complete in form. From my first count off the lows, I counted five wave sequences, while others counted sevens, etc., up from the 1812 lows. Now the plum pudding is baked. There is now a clear five-wave sequence higher in complete agreement with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. It ‘can’ be considered a Leading Diagonal of the 5:3:5:3:5 variety – which can be quite bullish. Notice how momentum wanes on each successive peak of the EWO. Wave (3) has less momentum that wave (1), and wave (5) has less momentum that (3). This is a very clear signature for a diagonal. And measurements are currently perfect for such a diagonal. Wave (5) is shorter than wave (3), Wave (3) is shorter than Wave (1), Wave (4) is shorter than Wave (2), and Wave (4) overlaps Wave (1).

    SPX - Intraday - Mar-01 1046 AM (30 min)

    This structure can be a minor A wave, or it can be a minor 1 wave. The only restriction now is that for a true diagonal, wave (5) may not become longer than wave (3). If it does, then it indicates an even more bullish pattern than the diagonal (in the short term) which would be a (1), (2), 1 , 2 count higher. I am completely agnostic to which it is – or which it becomes.

    The bottom line, price remains in the S&P 500 cash two-weekly up-channel (chart shown here and on my blog several times before). And it is hard to get too negative until that channel is again pierced to the down side.

    Cheers and enjoy the chart.

  43. ABchart says:


    Yesterday the imbalance was 1970. This imbalance becomes only 1967. I am expecting a small pullback from here (about 12 points). Then we have now a swing imbalance target at 1986. I think this last level will be the top. Why not Thursday?
    1986 ES = 1988 SPX

  44. uas2014 says:

    Tony. Is The -div still working? Spx

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