SHORT TERM: roller coaster day, DOW -123
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.0%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.7%. US index futures traded generally lower overnight. The market opened three points below Friday’s SPX 1948 close, then bounced to 1950 by 10am. At 9:45 the Chicago PMI was reported lower: 47.6 v 55.6, and at 10am Pending home sales were reported lower: -2.5% v +0.1%. The market pulled back to SPX 1944 by 10:30, then rallied to 1958 by 11:30. After that it started to pullback again. This pullback lasted for the rest of the day as the market closed at SPX 1932.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.80%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.75%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rallied $1.05, Gold rose $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10am, plus Auto sales during the day.
The market opened relatively flat on the day, bounced, and then hit SPX 1944. After that the rally fell short or Friday’s SPX 1963 high, and then made a lower low at 1932. The weakness we had noted on Friday definitely made its appearance today. Thus far we still have three waves up for Intermediate wave C: 1939-1925-1963. The pullback from that high is also three waves: 1944-1958-1932. Intermediate wave C is certainly not looking too much like Intermediate wave A at this point. Let’s give the market another day or so before calling the SPX 1963 high the end of Int. C / Major B. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the day quite oversold. Best to your trading!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway
LONG TERM: bear market