weekend update


The market started the week at SPX 1918. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 1947. After that it pulled back, aided by two gap down openings, to SPX 1891 by Wednesday. Then helped by two gap up openings the market rallied to SPX 1963 by Friday, and ended the week at 1948. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.55%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.80%, and the DJ World index gained 0.90%. Economic reports for the week were neutral. On the uptick: Q4 GDP, durable goods, the FHFA, personal income/spending, the PCE, and existing home sales. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, consumer confidence/sentiment, new home sales, the WLEI, GDPn, plus weekly jobless claims increased. Next week’s reports are highlighted by the FED’s Beige book, the ISM’s and monthly Payrolls. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bear market

After the market made a Primary III high at SPX 2135 in May, then lost 12.6% market value into August at SPX 1867, there was some debate over whether or not that correction was all, or part, of Primary wave IV. Then when the market rallied quite strongly in October, off a secondary SPX 1872 low in September, hitting SPX 2116 in November, that debate subsided. When the SPX failed to make a new all time high in December, and the market sold off to a lower low in February at SPX 1810. Market pundits again brought up an ongoing Primary IV scenario. Now with the market rallying strongly the past two weeks, a renewed call for Primary wave V underway is gaining some momentum.


Above is the monthly SPX chart from 1980. Observe how the MACD bounced off of neutral all through the 1980’s and then soared in the latter half of the 1990’s. It peaked in 1999, and then continued a long decline during the 2000-2002 bear market. After that bear market ended it again turned up, reaching a peak right around the high of the 2002-2007 bull market. Then again it started a long decline into the bear market low in 2009. During the 2009-2015 bull market it rose to a new high, peaking in late 2014. Observe that it is already declining, like the previous bear markets. This alone suggests the bull market ended in 2015, along with Primary waves IV and V, and a new bear market is underway.


We continue to label the five Primary wave, Cycle [1], bull market ending with a failed fifth wave in December 2015 at SPX 2104. The first downtrend of the bear market appears to have bottomed at SPX 1810 this month. After that low the first uptrend appears to be underway reaching a high of SPX 1963 thus far. When this uptrend concludes, we are expecting the bear market to start making new lows during the next downtrend. Longer term we are expecting the market to lose 45% to 50% of its value during this bear market. Ending sometime in 2017 around SPX 1100.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

After the unorthodox bull market high at SPX 2104 in December we labeled five waves down into the February low at SPX 1810. While the waves did not look like clean impulse waves, they were impulsive enough to be counted as five down. During bear markets, as well as corrections, the form patterns take is nearly always more important than the internal structure.


We have tentatively labeled the SPX 1810 low as Major wave A of an ABC Primary A decline. The bear market should consist of three Primary waves: ABC. The recent rally we are labeling as Intermediate waves a-b-c, of a Major wave B uptrend. Intermediate wave A ended at SPX 1947, Intermediate wave B ended at SPX 1891, and Intermediate wave C has been underway this week. When it concludes, which may be next week, Major wave B will end, and a downtrending Major wave C, to new bear market lows, will be underway. Medium term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.


Intermediate wave A unfolded in seven waves SPX: 1836-1822-1888-1875-1931-1902-1947. This could be counted as a double zigzag, or a simple zigzag. The simple zigzag would be the first five waves up to SPX 1931 as Minor a, then Minor b 1902, and Minor c at 1947. Either way it was a corrective advance. Intermediate wave B was a quick three wave decline that could be counted SPX: 1919-1927-1891. Intermediate wave C has thus far rallied in four waves, SPX: 1939-1925-1963-1946. Normally we would expect another seven wave advance for Int. C, similar to the seven wave advance of Int. A. Corrective waves usually unfold in similar patterns.


Targeting the potential high for this Major wave B uptrend we have been noting several levels of resistance. First, retracements of the prior downtrend suggest SPX: 1963 (50%) and 1999 (61.8%). Second, Fibonacci relationships of Int. C to Int. A suggest SPX: 1960 (50%), 1976 (61.8%) and 2028 (100%). Third, the following OEW pivot ranges also come into play: 1956, 1973 and 2019. When we combine all the relationships we arrive with the following: the 1956 and 1973 pivots, SPX 1999, and the 2019 pivot. The first week of March sets up for an important turning point in this bear market.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral. Best to your trading this volatile market


Asian markets were mixed on the week for a net loss of 0.8%.

European markets were all higher for a net gain of 2.4%.

The Commodity equity group were mostly higher and gained 1.2%.

The DJ World index gained 0.9%.


Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.1% on the week.

Crude soared 10.3% for the week as it tries to establish an uptrend.

Gold continues to uptrend but lost 0.5% on the week.

The USD is also trying to sustain an uptrend and gained 1.5% on the week.


Monday: Chicago PMI and Pending home sales around 10am. Tuesday: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, and Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP and the FED’s Beige book. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Factory orders, and ISM services. Friday: monthly Payrolls and the Trade deficit.

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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321 Responses to weekend update

  1. tradeanimal says:

    Nice tag of the Primary Pivot on the hourly SPX chart at 1934. Might find support here for the day?

  2. I though gold was going lower near term.

  3. No Limit to being wrong!

    XUWU, I am with you. However, Monday will be bullish closing at 1964. That will be the top for 2 months, SPX may crash lower circuit any day.Last week, my (wrong) forecast was range of 1910-1951, close at 1923.But next week, range 1969-1890 and close at 1893.

  4. H D says:

    Just prefer the Jan low for A. SPX closed Friday 1948, BOTs took em +10 1958 and now -10 1938, Oscar performance. C on deck

  5. fotis2 says:

    Hourly DT 1927 short term..

  6. bud67 says:

    Short SH at 2:48 pm est…

  7. frommi2 says:

    AAPL looks to have finished its wave 4 and should be ready for a 15-20% downmove.

    • frommi2 says:

      wave 4 of Primary C that is.

      • Holly Silver says:

        Median household income, adjusted for inflation is now higher than before the 2007 recession. Month to month gains over past several months have been the most rapid since survey started in 2000.

        Someone please explain why the consumer is supposed to stop purchasing and why it’s not more likely they accelerate their spending?

        Most important why is everyone so sure we are now staring a long winter bear market? Is it just based on the age of this bull run? Is Elliot Wave fixed on the doom/gloom conclusions or is it the interpretation of the reader that has it so?

        We currently have a huge discrepancy between fundamentals and technical. Which one wins out?

        • CampFreddie says:

          Holly, good post thnx.

        • frommi2 says:

          European banking crisis, Oil nations wealth funds liquidating assets, china collapse, commodity driven housing bubbles in Australia and Canada. Pick your poison.

        • torehund says:

          ..prisoners released = tightening job market. Not what they talk, see what they do 🙂

        • blackjak100 says:

          Primary trend is down because both 50 & 200 dma are sloping down along with monthly MACD. Markets do not always move in tandem with economy. Look at recent bull market for example.

        • simpleiam says:

          While I know that Tony can speak for himself, I will dare to reply to your post.

          First: Tony has been bullish for years, over the objections of numerous doom and gloomers. You just happened to arrive shortly after his technical turned bearish.

          Second: Market cycles and Economic cycles are not always the same, in fact, much of the time, they’re different. Please study the avalanche of data available and you’ll see.

          • EL MATADOR says:

            As far back as I can recall, Holly has been here since some time in 2014. Holly has been preaching the same funny-mentals … consumer, retailer, us economy doing great. IMO, Holly will remain bullish bias until the $hit hit the fans

          • simpleiam says:

            Thanks ElMat. I didn’t recognize the name, but I was away last year for a while.

        • fotis2 says:

          Post a chart of what you see and let the Market do the talking also keep in mind that if you wrong you have the luxury of disappearing whereas Tony doesn’t..

  8. torehund says:

    Weekly full STO on $EUR/USD, at “top” after an abc up from mid Nov-15. 2 + 2 up on EW, and the last 2 is retracing…Welcome to Super Tuesday folks.

  9. simpleiam says:

    Tony, is it possible we just saw the end of wave 6 down? 9 pt move; or are you looking for 10 pts now?

  10. simpleiam says:

    $TRIN at a very neutral 1.01 right now. Combined with other indicators, I think after this pull back to 1948ish, there’s more upside to go. Would like to see that TRIN below 50, for sure, prefer below 40.

  11. tomasso60 says:

    martin Armstrong on oil month end (today)

    • simpleiam says:

      “A daily closing above $33.60 on Monday will be a warning that we may yet see a rally to everyone’s shock and dismay. This would be more geopolitical rather than supply/demand.”

      Wonder to what geopolitical event Armstrong might be referring?

      • tomasso60 says:

        something out of Europe or Asia only comes to mind

      • Super Tuesday. I like Bernie Sanders, but if Hillary shuts him out tomorrow, that would mean that the candidate most hostile to free markets, capitalism, and success would be back to tapping Maple trees in Vermont (although I hear there might be a tree in Brooklyn).

        Poor Bernie. He means well.

        • EL MATADOR says:

          CN, would a close below yesterday’s close trigger a Big Down today? Thx

          • Big Down has triggered. A close below yesterday’s low will confirm. Whipped me a bit today as I longed the ES triple dip during the opening hour and had to about face when the “pullback” broke below that opening range low. I suspected a bull trap, but it din;t keep me from losing a claw. Thankfully, those grow back 😉

            Big Down’s, even in Bear markets, are not as easy nor as reliable as Big Ups. Even during bear markets, it seems the market prefers to be heading North rather than South.

  12. ABchart says:

    ES daily:

    Beer time!

  13. stmro says:

    Second rejection by 1963 pivot. Next test will be crucial. I suspect it will resolve upwards, but we shall see.

  14. opader says:

    Monday – FEB 29, 2016

    @ 09:25 – Support: 1945, 1925, 1920
    Resistance: 1960


  15. kvilia says:

    Question – sometime during my previous life, junior minors did not correlate the raise in gold and therefore were sold off with the general markets. Does anyone see the same probability now? I am looking at the DUST bull flag and oversold conditions on daily and thinking it is due for a pop. Anyone including Rabbit want to contribute to this thread?

    • James Green says:

      I would not be shorting the miners at this stage of the game! Dust looks cheap, but remember how oversold the miners are on a larger time frame.
      When the markets tank, gold will rip higher, best to play it safe.
      Just my opinion!
      Good luck!

  16. ABchart says:

    ES: target of the day done at 1956 (maximum 1958). Tomorrow, Wednesday (and maybe Thursday also) are bullish, with a smal pullback of about 12/15 points from 1970/75

    Something like: 1956/58 > 1970/75 > 1958/60 > 1990 or 2014 (here, will monitor many tools before going short on the indices)

    • Bob Sagget says:

      Great post AB. Thanks. I wonder, between terrible Tuesdays and turn of month if tomorrow could be the start of our leg down. Agree with Johnny Oil could continue to influence but end of month window dressing will be over, Tuesdays are bad, the rally has come quite far in a short period. Then again, maybe this is all just a WWE Match between Jamie Dimon;s JPM buy and TC’s excellent OEW assessments! Who will take the championship belt???

  17. johnnymagicmoney says:

    So I am assuming that according to Tony’s count the move off of 1944 would now place us in the 5th of 7

    So when this run ends we have one move down and one more push higher and B should end or so the count projects

    The only thing I fear is almost everyone is wrong here, oil goes busting through this mid 30 range into the 40’s, the market heads towards all time highs and when we are at 2140 the count is changed ………………….I would laugh

  18. prakashbkc says:

    TC sir,

    On 16th feb 2016, nifty(india market) u r showing Pri III completed at9119 but today it showing cycle wave [1] completed at 9119, what made u change the count??????

  19. H D says:

    So much news and data, meanwhile SPX puts in an early morn low and rallies 10 handles. 19(55) Monday’s, Think we top this week. What news is on deck to kick off C?

  20. ABchart says:

    The ECB will probably cut rates again by 0.20 point and extend its QE until the end of 2017. But it will not increase its size as the rates are already very low.
    However the levels of current rates do not reflect the health of Europe’s economy. The day when the ECB will stop QE and its balance sheet will exceed €4 trillion, it will all go wrong.
    We can not force inflation because it depends on the level of growth.

  21. The CEO for Newmont mining just said that for every $10 decrease in oil,the miners get 40m in free cash flow.Not bad.

  22. johnnymagicmoney says:

    forget about horrible PMI or bad home sales or European deflation because there will be more stimulus!!! BUY!!!!! =)

  23. frommi2 says:

    Looking at AAPL,FB,GOOG i would argue that we are close to the finish line for this upmove. Maybe one last uptick, but its possible its already finished and the next move is down.

  24. ABchart says:

    ES can drop as low as 1925/26 (Done)
    SPX can drop as low as 1930/33 (Not done – China context)
    CAC can drop as low as 4250 (Done)
    DAX can drop as low as 9360 (Done)


    ES: support now at 1935. Bullish swing imbalance at 1970
    CAC: swing target inchanged at 4430
    DAX: swing target 9700+

  25. CampFreddie says:

    I’m no expert on debt instruments, but I find this chart a little alarming.

  26. I hit the hay with futes down 15.Wake up and they re comfortably green.Somebody on 3rd shift at the Fed did their job.

  27. prakashbkc says:

    GM sir,

    kindly share ur experience on how to trade correction as u mentioned int c could be seven waves?

  28. ABchart says:

    China cuts reserve ratio by 0.5 point to 17%

  29. floyd drummer says:


    thanks as always,
    ….and very good calls on the market as well!


  30. purplember says:

    china down 4% however US futures only down a couple points so far

    • stmro says:

      Futures were down 17 pts at one point. Have a feeling it’s a bear trap. However the longer it sustains trade below 1947, the better it looks for the bears.

  31. torehund says:

    Something strange, $Brent futures are blinking between 0,8 and 1,6 percent up, hmmm..

  32. torehund says:

    ..this is a message from the market. No more, no less…

  33. M1 says:

    Short term: You know that I always find this very difficult. From the bullish side it looks like the first wave ended at 4548 then we had a complex wave 2 ending at 4425. Should this count be correct one could expect a rally to abt 4635, 4764 or 4933 (abt the 200dma).
    From the bearish side it looks like we had three waves to 4576 then wave b ending at 4425.
    So and should the bears be in control we can expect a reversal and turning point as soon as when NAZ hit 4651 (abt the 50dma), 4792 or 4979.
    At this point 4425 looks like the important support to watch
    Medium Term: I still see the same situation than two weeks ago when I mentioned the following: “NAZ short term chart, count and pattern suggest an important low has been hit in this index. We can also find a good Fib relationship. Fifth wave = 0.5 of wave 0-3. All of this suggest a nice rally in this index in the coming weeks, unless NAZ is already in a free fall wave down. (take note that I even have another more bullish count in watch list)”
    Should this be wrong and the market (NAZ) turns around as some are expecting then I will reconsider my bullish scenario and will publish my alt bearish counts.
    Long Term: The med preffered count (count #1) has been the same for months. No adjusts. And suggests the bull market is not over yet.
    Just be alert that on Feb 12th NAZ was at a long term inflection point. So this index should be better staying above the lows of that day if we want to keep our bullish scenario.
    Here the charts:

  34. blackjak100 says:

    Someone asked me about an updated chart for Tom McClellan’s $SPX roadmap and I found it. The COT data peaked in July which corresponded to the all time closing high in $SPX. Another interesting aspect is it predicts a bottom in Oct and then a violent end of year rally. After that it’s yet to be determined. Will Oct mark the Primary A bottom? It should if it’s going to match up to OEW year 2017 bear market bottom prediction. The rally from April-June should be a Major B rally then.

    • CampFreddie says:

      Lol, I love it when a very large mkt move doesn’t fit with his playbook …”Oh that’s just a rogue wave” … Yeah right 😀 .
      There are people here on this very site who are far better than the guru muppet’s like Tom McClellan.

  35. ufa123 says:

    Did anyone spot that DJUA fell 2.94% and DJT went up 0.48% on Friday. Maybe there is a bit more upside.

  36. fionamargaret says:



    This is what is throwing people off some – UVXY has broken down, while SPXL has broken out.
    If this continues and establishes above 1968 (50% retrace), we have to consider.

    • blackjak100 says:

      from false breaks come fast moves in opposite direction?…never thought technicals in leveraged ETF’s provided any useful info IMO. A clean ZZ can be counted from 1810 suggesting 1963 was it. 1931-1891-1963 where Int C was 2.5pts shy of .618*Int A.

      • fionamargaret says:

        ….levered or not, just a nudge to keep an eye open for the unexpected…..”if this establishes above 1968, we have to consider”.

  37. torehund says:


    Here you can clearly see the demise of the socialistic countries, and for sure in countries like Sweden the top could already be in.
    The lean and mean are still the US, Australia and surprisingly Ireland, a country that has been bureaucracy starved for many years.
    GDP in Sweden peaked in the fifties, aided by their no-participation of WW2, and the profits they made gave them a kickstart into Socialism. When there is a freebie GOV grows, to help you get rid of your surplus.
    Then a new cycle starts OR the country drifts into forceful Communism ala former Soviet-union, or ends up in facism like Germany/Italy/Spain.
    But if this is the peak, better days are still ahead of us 🙂
    USA is the guide and the rest will follow.
    As the overall long term count goes on the indexes, I am at the 50/50 bull vs bear. I just don’t know 🙂

    • fotis2 says:

      Tx Tore valuable info indeed!

    • bud67 says:

      I wouldn’t get to giddy about the USA financials.
      Truth is. Whether your single, married, or alone on the world
      stage – Debt — for a lack of better words – will be in with Sweden
      since our National Debt is getting closer to 22 trillion, Not there
      yet, I understand, but that is where the rubber meets the road,
      when prosperity ends….How do I know? I was a debtor, a long
      time ago, not I reversed that debt to a positive balance sheet
      with saving of over 30%. Not bad for a guy who retired at 53….Bud

      But – no fear. I will be driving to Rockwall Texas, which is
      where the nearest Inn and Out hamburger rest…lies
      from Florida….

    • fishonhook says:

      The US has socialism for the rich. While 1 Million Middle class families were foreclosed and kicked out of their homes, Bush and Bernanke made sure $100 Billion went through AIG to hedge funds and IB banks, Like the $9 BILLION that went to Goldman and was paid out as bonuses to the top brass. That is reverse socialism for you

      • torehund says:

        Fish you are definitely onto something, Europe had socialism for the many and US had socialism for the few. A huge party for a bunch of non-producers….on each side of the pond.
        Ponzi it is; but as the masses are involved in Europe the scam is probably closer to the end vs the US, I would assume. Ample space for some extra Clinton mania ?

  38. opader says:

    Thank you Tony …. your work and analysis is very much appreciated.

    My thoughts : http://www.balancetrading.org/

  39. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony!

    Here’s my squiggle count. Would like to see a continued pullback into the SPX 1,930’s for minute b, then 1 more HH to complete minute c and thus major B. Though it’s also possible Friday’s high could’ve ended major B.

    Either way, another HH or not, we should be topping out. Martin Armstrong is warning that March is a directional change with April being the target. Obviously, March could be a high given the recent rally and we plunge into April in major C.


    • aahmichael says:

      mjt, another thing to consider is if we have an up day on Monday, it will result in a bullish (green) monthly hammer. That would certainly argue against a meaningful top being put in any time soon.

      • mjtplayer says:

        Yes it could, or if we have a down day it can be a monthly long-legged doji and probably signal a monthly reversal. Important day and close tomorrow…

        • aahmichael says:

          I certainly agree about the importance of tomorrow’s close. Below 1931 will be a daily 3BR to the downside.

          • fotis2 says:

            You flip Bear to Bull in a blink

          • aahmichael says:

            I haven’t flipped at all. At this point, I still believe that we’ll see new lows before we see news highs…but that leaves a lot of room for the market to still go a lot higher in the meantime. I got short again on Friday at 1955, but I realize the potential for the market to go either way short term. As of Friday’s close, it’s still in no-man’s land, so tomorrow’s action could easily tip the scales in one direction or the other short term. By the way, I never get married to any position, because the market rarely stays faithful for very long.

      • valunvstr says:

        Two monthly hammers in 2008. Both lead to higher prices short term but were in a bear market. So, it wouldn’t argue against a meaningful top being put in any time soon. In one case the market bounces for two months, and on the other case not even a full month.

      • As said, Monday close of 1964 most likely. That will put green hammer monthly.

        However, start looking at quarterly candle. The first clear signal about impending fall came from quarterly hanging candlestick (in 2000 and 2007 as well). Jan 31, 2015 close was at 2040 ish. I am not saying it wont go there, but needs lots of efforts.

    • jeffbalin says:

      I’m playing around with the idea that this is all of int A, int B occurring now, int 3 to come. Major B not likely over. 60 min macd neg divergences make me expect a deeper down possible now, and I expect daily RSI to get more oversold before major B ends.

  40. frommi2 says:

    Again thanks Tony. I just reviewed stock market seasonality in even years and came to the conclusion that the start of march is a good point to exit the market. (In odd years an exit in august looks better)
    So now i will slowly migrate back to the bear camp and start hedging next week.

    • Jim Guthery says:

      Be carefull there have been large bets placed with the vix declining in March. I would sleep with one eye open if I were a bear right now.

      • frommi2 says:

        I am always careful, the maximum i will do is bring my net exposure to 0. I will be long value/low beta/dividend paying stocks, short momentum/growth(QQQ). That way i won`t lose my shirt in case i am wrong but profit a lot if the market falls strongly.

        • Jim Guthery says:

          Somehow these big vix players have been nailing these moves! I am flabergasted that someone is expecting big drop, especially with Tony’s current wave structure. Fiona just maybe right about a higher high around 2200. Most here think that will not happen, I too think it will not happen, but someone out there bet huge in the opposite direction.

  41. Hi,Tony,i didn’t understand why you change the count for wave A in 5 waves
    in TA the Dow have breaked a DB,full target is in the fibo,resistance is easy to observe in 17k area

  42. Tony C: Thanks for generously sharing with us the results of your unique form of EW analysis. I always read your daily updates and usually reread your weekend updates a couple of times.

  43. prashmoney says:

    Thank u Tony for the update…..your view on the Indian market…. target for Nifty??

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