Friday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW -57

Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.2%. Europe opened higher and gained 1.7%. US index futures were higher overnight as well. At 8:30 Q4 GDP wad revised higher: +1.0% v +0.7%, Personal income (+0.5% v +0.3%)/spending (+0.5% v 0.0%) were reported higher, and PCE prices were reported higher: +0.3% v 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1961, ticked up to 1963, and then started to pullback. At 10am Consumer sentiment was reported lower: 91.7 v 92.0, and FED governor Powell’s speech was released: The market pulled back to SPX 1952 by 10:30, rallied to 1961 by 11am, pulled back to 1949, rallied to 1959, then pulled back to 1946 by 2:30. At 1:30 FED governor Brainard’s speech: Then the market bounced to close at SPX 1948.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 0.25%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds dropped 21 ticks, Crude slipped 25 cents, Gold slid $9, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 46.6% v 46.9%, and Q1 GNP was lowered: +2.1% v +2.6%.

The market gapped up at the open today, hit its highest level since the rally began SPX 1963, then pulled back for the rest of the day. We can now count four waves up from Tuesday’s SPX 1891 low: 1938-1925-1963-1946. The market remains on schedule for a potential uptrend high next week. With today’s rally and pullback we noticed the market’s upside momentum is beginning to wane. The last four rallies of this uptrend have been: 66, 56, 45 and 48 points. The recent rally came in a bit shorter at only 38 points. Plus the daily RSI is beginning to build a negative divergence. Additional details will be covered in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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68 Responses to Friday update

  1. tony caldaro says:

    good morning
    I should not have to remind some people that this is a stock market blog, and is no place for political, religious, etc, discussions.
    If one needs to have those kinds of discussions just join a P.A.C. website, and they will welcome your views with open arms.
    thank you

  2. bud67 says:

    Better is a good start…

  3. bud67 says:

    Between 2/26 and 3/6 – the SP500 could lose 200pts….Bud

    • simpleiam says:

      Is this what your indicator suggests? Can you give any explanation? I know it’s proprietary, but…

      • bud67 says:

        I can try. Using the Daneric EW chart Feb 26.
        He offers 7 charts, I am looking at the 2nd one.
        Where W2 up has been completed, and we saw
        minor W2 low at 1810. “hard to read his charts,
        so small”….thus, when W2 up is completed,
        This next week. It looks then like a W3 down
        of 3. What little I know about EW – implies a
        very strong price decline, yet to come.
        Now, as to my SP500 BoYu chart. It now
        is reflective of the Up BoYu pattern, 2/26.
        Reaching into a prior BoYu resistance/support
        levels of 9/16, 12/18, and now 2/26. Which is
        to suggest — there is room for a top to be in place,
        thereby- a trigger for another decline. In closing.
        The Daneric SP chart has a strong W3 of 3 down
        look. Again, I leave the wave counting Mr Caldaro,
        and I know the BoYu……good question. Your reply?

      • bud67 says:

        As to the BoYu for SP500. It has been building a
        negative market pattern, since prior to 5/20/15.
        This is serious, in that it is suggesting a threat to
        the SP500 – 1810 base. Break the base, and then
        you have a collapse pattern…..Bud

  4. lunker1 says:

    Cambridge is one the most international, multiracial and educated areas in the world because of Harvard and the city police there are no dummies and know to not stir up any problems near the Harvard community – especially racial. The officer acted as he was trained to responding to a 911 call about a break in at the residence. The 911 caller/witness had given visual evidence about men breaking in. The professor (Obama’s black buddy) found the front door to his home jammed shut and with the help of his taxi driver tried to force it open. The officer arrived on scene and during a suspected B&E likely tried to ID the suspect. So why did he get arrested for disorderly? When asked for ID the man obviously told the officer to go stuff it, I live here, and so he got arrested.

  5. lunker1 says:

    I’m curious why my comment is pending moderation when it had no links in it.

  6. torehund says:

    Well its another prepping weekend, all four in the forest :):) Good weekend to Tony and all on board.

  7. 1976 and 1999 are two key pivots Fibonacci wise that seem likely to hit ahead before major reversal.

    Multiple indicators, most notably Dennis Gartman covering his shorts and going long Oil today are adding up to a B wave high within 1-2 days

    That bearish sentiment has been worked off quite well

  8. stephenk1980 says:

    Thanks Tony. Personally I think this is more likely to be int b with int c yet to come. Also expecting a high a week later. Alternate scenario is that today was ‘it’, but other indices I follow aren’t correlating that just yet.

  9. joecthetruthteller says:

    Lunk, as IF the House and Senate is magically going to disappear when and if he takes Office!!

  10. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony! Friday funnies…Reaching for the GOP ballot (box)…
    // GIPHY

  11. torehund says:

    Nowadays its heavily debated the like-ability of politicians, what they express, and more importantly how they express it. Skillfulness isn’t an issue.

  12. Jimmy Porter says:

    I agree I think he is what we need. I do worry about somethings about him but if he gets the right people around him which I think he will he will do great.

  13. purplember says:

    thanks Tony, as Major B upfolds and you read the waves, is your confidence building in bear market or some concern about strength of rebound (impulse) in past week ?

  14. COT chart out for gold.Looks extremely bearish.It took a while for COT to kick in when it was bullish though.Still…can t see much upside from here.May be time to step aside completely.Good luck all.

  15. purplember says:

    it’s sad out of 315 million people: trump, hillary and bernie is best we can do.

    trump is scary at times but good businessman and won’t give in to Washington BS & wild spending.

    Hillary on other hand is beyond corrupt and isn’t fit to be president. Her incompetence of letting china/russia/iran access to US secrets is unthinkable. General Patreus was fired for 1 item ; Hillary 1300+ secret emails. 22 so top secret that many in white house aren’t even allowed to see.

    • lunker1 says:

      I agree that he makes “unpredictable”, non-Presidential statements but I saw where he said in the primaries he needs to sell himself and standout so he’s more out front and that as things get more serious he would get more presidential. I can buy that.

      also looking back many of our Presidents were frequently non-Presidential even though they sold us on how Presidential they’d be. with Trump you see what you’re getting with no BS. he’s a huge fan of the USA and I don’t see him putting the country at risk simply because of ego or foolishness. you can’t do that in business and consistently win.

      • lunker1 says:

        I also like that he’s not a politician. the country has wallowed in mediocrity far too long because of wishy washy polictical red tape. Trump is a do’er, a finisher and a winner. America needs some big wins again.

        • Holly Silver says:

          We whine when we should be thankful and stay complacent when we should be actively involved in the political shenanigans. There was no one on the face of this earth that could have changed the last 7 years to be any better than it is. no one. We replaced cash with plastic since the early 80’s and nothing has stopped that trajectory. Saturated in debt with a lifestyle that expects this to continue. No one seemed to complain when they got to live a lifestyle they couldn’t afford. No one complained when easy credit became available to all. This is called capitalism and we have seen the cycle before. Boom/bust is a natural phenomenon of such a system. Is there any better? Please look back on history and tell me just how well we did. I will just mention the 1800’s. panic of 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1884, 1890, 1893, 1896. Are we really so bad off? Is there really another time when we had a long period of prosperity? The experiment of unprecedented debt and credit will most likely end badly but progress has always been made after each and every disaster. How about implementing the changes done after the last great depression for starters, instead of watering it down or disbanding it all together. Glass Seagull Act is a good starting point. Greed, power and corruption always happen when it’s citizens are fat and happy. The pendulum swings both ways.

          Me, I am glad to be living in these times even if we go thru another great depression. You can’t negate the good and live in a vacuum of despair. Enjoy what life has to offer and believe me today it is unprecedented in every respect. Social, economic, travel, enjoying hedonistic impulses. We never realize what we have till it’s gone.

  16. Walter Crane says:

    Do you believe any of these guys are anything other than cartoon puppets? Make any money? Independently in the markets? It would be hard to believe. I was the guy who just before everything crapped out said this was indeed a BEAR. Don’t believe anything or anyone. Do your own DD.

  17. EL MATADOR says:

    Thx Tony, bulls woke up thinking to themselves Gap and Goal but all they did was fumble the ball bear have recovered it and started running for the Goal next week Bear Touchdown

  18. I’ll buy that with a market order.

  19. johnnymagicmoney:
    I think your poem is a pretty creative commentary on what you believe to be the self -delusion of investors you think of as perma-bulls. However, don’t underestimate the importance of the USA as a secure repository for investment funds because of it’s respect for property rights, it’s political stability, a sound basis of Constitutional and statute law, and thus far the absence of negative interest rates. Not to mention a powerful military which insures the hegemony of the US dollar.

    The children of Joe P Kennedy were given $600M+ and they and their descendants have run it down to below $100M. So receiving a large sum as an inheritance or gift does not guarantee that you will be able to multiply it. Also look at the pathetic financial story of so many lottery winners to see that truth reiterated.

    It is highly doubtful that most most people on this site are career civil service people. There are a lot of good civil service workers but many civil service managers are among the most self- serving people you will ever find.
    Also, from your highly emotional tenor, I suspect you may be scaring yourself by taking too large a short position.

  20. steplaland says:

    Tony’s pivots 1869, 1901, 1929, 1956, 1973 are bear market start years…I
    say this rally ends and bear market resumes at 1980 or 2000.

  21. Obviously there was no Big UP day today as the large-cap indexes struggled to stay above their 50-day MA’s. But NYSE breadth was decent enough at +737 to actually pull the McClellan Oscillator up a couple of points. Importantly this persistence of high McOs numbers is creating large upside gaps in the Summation Index. The mid and small cap growth ETF’s performed much better than the large caps Friday.$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120

    I should probably give up making daily forecasts because I really do not have the technical tools to do it reliably. I do know someone who does specialize in one-day predictions who does have the capability of doing it effectively. If I had any free capital, I would use his site to make 1-day trades.

  22. Thx – interesting with the decreasing size of rallies – agree regarding next week – will have to see how Sunday plays out. Today’s retrace was a bit bigger than I expected as I thought 1947 would hold.

    Meanwhile – some answers to what is a credit spread? –

  23. simpleiam says:

    TRIN at .96 now. Moving in the right direction for those who want to short. Not fully baked yet.

  24. soulsurfer says:

    no zweig breadth thrust event today per’s data. Bears can take a deep breadth of relief, especially since the last one on October 2015 didn’t produce much given where we are now vs then…

  25. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I’m going to say that open Monday it works off a little of the divergence and pushes the market down to about 1940 or so, then moves to say the 1973 pivot, heads back down to the 1963 area again then makes one last hurrah into the 1993 area. The trend line by the end of the week would then be right around 1994 to 2000 (for a little overshoot) or so close to Fiona’s 1999 as well as one of Tony’s targets. The psychological 2000 level would also be meaningful. Then the shorts can party like its 1999

    that’s my call

  26. fotis2 says:

    Many thanks Tony

  27. llerias7 says:

    Tony, acording to what you said yesterday…more 3 more tiny waves to go…maybe only spx1980…within oew1973?

  28. Thanks Mr C for the thoughts on a potential top next week.Will hopefully fit with the beginning of a gold breakout at the same time.Have a great weekend.

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