SHORT TERM: quiet opening, DOW -40
Overnight the Asian markets gained 1.9%. Europe opened higher but finished mixed. US index futures were higher overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 262K v 269K, and the Philly FED was reported lower: -2.8 v -3.5. The market opened three points above yesterday’s SPX 1927 close, and then immediately started to pullback. At 10am Leading indicators were reported lower: -0.2% v -0.2%. The pullback continued until 11:30 when the SPX hit 1916. Then after a rally to SPX 1925 by 12:30, the market pulled back to 1915 just before 2pm. After another rally to SPX 1925, the market pulled back again to 1915 by 3:30. After that a bounce into the close ended the day at SPX 1918.
For the day the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, and the NDX/NAZ were -1.10%. Bonds gained 19 ticks, Crude lost 40 cents, Gold rallied $27, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: the CPI at 8:30 and it’s Options expiration Friday.
The market had a quiet opening for the first time since February 4th. The SPX opened at 1930, the high of the day, and immediately began to pullback. No gap up opening, no rally? The SPX hit 1915 three times today, for marginally the biggest pullback since this rally began at 1810. This pullback is 16 points so far, the previous two were 14 and 13 points respectively. While we are still counting five waves up from SPX 1810, as noted yesterday, the current pullback has not overlapped the previous high at SPX 1888 yet. This suggests the market could rise a bit further to make it seven waves, or continue to pullback, as we expect, and overlap SPX 1888 to complete Int. B. Options expiration tomorrow could provide the answer. Short term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to neutral after yesterday’s negative divergence. Best to your trading the often wild expiration Friday!
MEDIUM TERM: uptrend likely underway
LONG TERM: bear market