SHORT TERM: gap down opening, DOW -212
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened lower and lost 0.9%. US index futures were higher overnight, then lower after monthly Payrolls were reported lower: 151K v 292K and the Trade deficit widened: -$43.3B v -$42.4B. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1909 and continued to retreat. The market had closed at SPX 1915 yesterday. At 11:30, after a few bounces, the market hit SPX 1880 and then tried to rally. Around noon the SPX hit 1892, and then headed even lower. At 3pm Consumer credit was reported higher: $21.3B v 13.9B, and the SPX hit 1873. A small rally into the close ended the week at SPX 1880.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.35%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude dropped 70 cents, Gold rallied $17, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 47.7% v 48.0%, and the Q1 GDP est. was reported higher: +2.2% v +1.2%.
The market started off with a gap down opening for the third time this week. After trading down to SPX 1880, the market bounced to 1892 by noon. After that it traded down to SPX 1873 by 3pm. Monthly payrolls not only came in lower, but much lower than expected. As noted yesterday, a drop below SPX 1904 would suggest Minor C, from Thursday’s SPX 1927 Minor B high, is heading lower. More on this in the weekend update. Best to your weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: tentative Major wave labels remain
LONG TERM: bear market