SHORT TERM: relatively quiet day, DOW +80
Overnight the Asian markets gained 0.2%. Europe opened higher but lost 0.2%. US index futures were higher overnight, and at 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported higher: 285Kv 278K. The market opened one point below yesterday’s SPX 1913 close. After a tick up to SPX 1914 the market dropped to 1901, and then started to rally. At 10am Factory orders were reported lower: -2.9% v -0.2%. The rally continued until 10:30 when the SPX hit 1927. Then market then pulled back to SPX 1904 by 11:30. After a rally to SPX 1920 by 1pm, the market pulled back to 1904 again at 2:30. Then the market rallied to SPX 1916 just before closing at 1915.
For the day the SPX/DOW were +0.30%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude lost 50 cents, Gold rallied $13, and the USD was lower again. Medium term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +192K) and the Trade deficit at 8:30, then Consumer credit at 3pm.
The market opened relatively flat today, dropped to SPX 1901, rallied to 1927, then ended the day at 1915. Initially it looked like the three wave Minor B advance from Wednesday’s SPX 1872 low had completed: 1918-1901-1927. But the pullback from that high does not look like it is in any hurry to go down: 1904-1920-1904-1916. As a result we will hold off on posting a Minor B label until SPX 1904 is broken to the downside. Short term support remains at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance a the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum dropped from slightly overbought at today’s high to neutral. Best to your trading NFP tomorrow!
MEDIUM TERM: tentative Major wave labels remain
LONG TERM: bear market