weekend update


Another volatile week! The week started off at SPX 1907, traded down to 1876 on Monday, then rallied to 1917 on Wednesday before the FOMC statement. After the statement was released the market traded down to SPX 1873, retested that low on Thursday, then rocketed higher on Friday to end the week at SPX 1940. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 2.05%, the NDX/NAZ gained 0.50%, and the DJ World index gained 2.10%. Economic reports for the week were positive. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, the FHFA, consumer confidence, new/pending home sales, the Chicago PMI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: durable goods, Q4 GDP, consumer sentiment and the WLEI. Next week we get reports on the PCE, the ISM’s and monthly Payrolls.

LONG TERM: bear market

After an unorthodox ending to a six year bull market, a bear market began in December 2015. Thus far it appears the market has completed its first wave down, Major wave a, of the bear market when it declined from the uptrend high at SPX 2116 to SPX 1812 in January. Since that low the market rallied to SPX 1909, struggled to make much progress for several days, and then rallied to SPX 1940 on Friday. This choppy nearly 130 point rally appears to be Major wave b, or the first uptrend of the bear market.


Typically uptrends during bear markets retrace anywhere from 38.2% to 61.8% of the previous, or larger, decline. The three retracement levels, as noted last week, suggested the following potential uptrend highs: 1928 (38.2%), 1964 (50.0%) and 2000 (61.8%). Anything more than that would be quite unusual. We had noted, also last week, that the first two levels were near the OEW 1929 and 1956 pivots. On Friday the lower level was easily exceeded, so the next likely upside target is the 1956 pivot range.

After this uptrend concludes, which may be soon, we expect the next downtrend, Major wave c, to start off in a choppy pattern and then to make new lows in March. When this begins we can then start to make some downside projections for its low. Bear markets are usually quite volatile in both directions. Uptrends are often good times to unload selective stocks, and/or hedge existing positions. Downtrends are often quite breathtaking. Since this is the first uptrend of the bear market it is probably the last opportunity to take advantage of higher prices.

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend underway

After the unorthodox bull market high at SPX 2104 we labeled the Major wave a downtrend to SPX 1812 as a complex zigzag: Int. a SPX 1993, Int. b SPX 2082, and Int. c SPX 1812. At the low the daily MACD was quite oversold, and the RSI set up a positive divergence. This is usually a sign that a downtrend may be ending in favor of a counter-trend uptrend. The market then rallied nearly 100 points in two days, kicking off the uptrend. And on Friday added to those gains.


While the downtrend took about 1.5 months to unfold, which is about normal these days. Uptrends during bear markets are usually quite a bit shorter. This potential uptrend has rallied nearly 140 points in just 8 days and is already nearing its upside retracement targets. Three of the five uptrends during the last bear market only lasted 2 – 4 weeks. And, the two that lasted longer were either retracing a larger pattern or a very steep decline. Neither of which has occurred yet in this bear market.

One last note. Typically during bear market uptrends they only manage to get slightly RSI overbought on the daily chart. The RSI is currently quickly approaching that level. Medium term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots.


After the Major wave A low we started labeling the Major B uptrend with three Intermediate waves: a-b-c. Intermediate wave a was a bit choppy, unfolded in an a-b-c, (1890-1860-1909), and topped at SPX 1909. Then we had a quite tricky Intermediate wave b, thanks to the reaction after the FOMC, that took the form of an irregular a-b-c pattern: 1876-1917-1873. Intermediate wave c kicked in off that low and has already unfolded in three waves: 1899-1886-1940. Although the last wave may not yet be complete.


When we compare Intermediate waves C and A during this uptrend, the mostly likely Fibonacci target is SPX 1971. This is where Int. C = Int. A. The other Fibonacci relationships have already been exceeded. Overall we are now looking at three possible levels to end this uptrend: OEW 1956 and 1973 pivots, and SPX 2000. Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. A short term negative divergence, and a medium term overbought condition could fit quite well for an uptrend high. Best to your trading!


Asian markets were nearly all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.3%.

Europe markets were also almost all higher for a gain of 1.2%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher and gained 5.5%.

The DJ World index appears to be uptrending and gained 2.1%.


Bonds continue to uptrend and gained 1.0% on the week.

Crude is trying to uptrend and gained 4.3% on the week.

Gold continues to uptrend and gained 1.7% on the week.

The USD confirmed its uptrend but only gained 0.1% on the week.


Monday: the PCE and Personal income/spending at 8:30, Construction spending and ISM manufacturing at 10am, then a Monetary policy discussion at the CFR with FED vice chair Fischer at 1pm. Tuesday: Auto sales. Wednesday: the ADP, and ISM services. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Factory orders. Friday: monthly Payrolls, the Trade deficit and Consumer credit.

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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361 Responses to weekend update

  1. Alphabet is giving a spelling lesson in after hours.

  2. H D says:

    1913 ES, and why I’m really glad I wasn’t watching CL for a correlation today:mrgreen:

  3. (oil) Keep in mind that big up days and down down says happen when either bottoming or topping. Oil might be bottoming here. Any thoughts Tony.

    • Dex T says:

      Oil has been having big up and down days for a long time. It’s certainly closer to a bottom but what’s the upside target and when?

      End of last year it hung around the high 40’s to low 50’s for months and can remain range bound for a while.

      With the U.S. indices dropping 40, 50% over the coming year do you expect oil to get very far?

  4. phil1247 says:


    ext long -23% target hit

    took profits

  5. ariez5 says:

    Maybe a better squiggle counter than I can confirm: Anyone else see 5 waves up from 1873, making this a potential 3-3-5 ABC?

  6. rc1269 says:

    SPX: 208/500 reported
    sales: -2.48%
    earns: -4.39%

    energy 12/40 reported. (somebody asked for last week?):
    sales: -34.69%
    earns: -66.97%

  7. timing101 says:

    If you guys think the markets are correlated to oil right now, I suggest a comparison with USD/JPY and the stock market. Start about Oct. 2011 until today.
    By the way, the BOJ just released the Kraken last Friday. Those negative interest rates should really help strengthen the Yen, right?🙂

  8. rc1269 says:

    looks like SPX wanted to get to that 1940-1950 target after all. daily RSI very close to OB now. GL

  9. 123 abc says:

    Tony et al, hope all is well.

    Perhaps now progressing Intermediate-c→Minor-a→Minute-c wave ?:

    — SPY(5): https://www.tradingview.com/x/kBC1m4Zf/

    @1940 : Intermediate-c→Minor-a→Minute-a
    @1920 : Intermediate-c→Minor-a→Minute-b

    • 123 abc says:

      Five waves from 1872: 1899-1886-1940-1920-1947

      However, in order of bullishness, this could either be…

      1. All of Intermediate-c, or
      2. Just Minor-a of Intermediate-c, or
      4. Now progressing Minor-c of Intermediate-c, or
      3. Now progressing Minute-c of Minor-a of Intermediate-c

  10. I have all waves in place for the c of B. Now lets see what happens…..

  11. Dex T says:

    Saudi Arabia will cooperate on oil output, didn’t propose production cut, says Arabiya

    “The source also told the Dubai-based satellite channel that the kingdom was not the source of a proposal to cut production that Russia was studying. ”


    • Dex T says:

      So looks like the “rumor” last week that the Saudi’s were going to cut production together with Russia was false. No surprise.

      Oil back down over 6%!

  12. johnnymagicmoney says:

    One question for Tony and one for AAmikey

    Tony – Is it possible to count Oct 14 as P4 and 2135 as P5 or not possible? If its possible that 2135 was V where would the count be? (oops that is two questions possibly)

    AAMikey – you have been very bearish in your counts and then noticed in the last couple days you presented a possible alternative count which contradicts your mostly bearish outlook. What made you consider the alternative count all of a sudden? I was surprised to see that.

    Thanks guys

  13. The funny thing is Mercury went retrograde on Jan 5th, and direct on Jan 25th… thats pretty much all you needed to know folks for January

  14. This big strength in Barrick Gold says Gold is going ALOT higher this quarter…

    Also says more SHXX will hit fan soon once this 1977-2011 level is hit

  15. stmro says:

    Decent consolidation day given the ST overbought conditions and oil rout. As long as we don’t close in the bottom half of today’s range, odds are excellent for more bounce this week.

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