Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening volatile day. DOW +125

Overnight the Asian markets ended mixed. Europe opened lower and lost 1.6%. US index futures were lower, then higher, overnight. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 278K v 294K, and Durable goods were reported lower: -5.1% v 0.0%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1899, ticked up to 1903, and then started to pullback. The SPX had closed at 1883 yesterday. At 10am Pending homes sales were reported higher: +0.1% v -0.9%. By 10:30 the market had completely closed the opening gap and hit SPX 1874. Then for the rest of the day the market traded between the opening hour range: 1894-1879-1899-1886-1899, then closed at 1893.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.65%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.10%. Bonds added 6 ticks, Crude rose $1.45, Gold dropped $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow Q4 GDP (est. +0.8%) at 8:30, the Chicago PMI at 9:45, then Consumer sentiment at 10am.

The market gapped up at the open today, for the third gap opening this week. After hitting SPX 1903 the market sold off to SPX 1874. After that it stayed in that trading range, with an upward bias, for the whole day. We noted in the comments section, yesterday after the close, four possible scenarios at yet another inflection point. These are: Major B ended at SPX 1917, Int. A ended at SPX 1917, Int. B was an irregular wave bottoming at SPX 1873, and the Major wave A downtrend is still underway. Confusing right? The next few days should clear up this dilemma. Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum has been drifting up all day after yesterday’s oversold condition. Best to your trading Q4 GDP!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend inflection point

LONG TERM: bear market


About tony caldaro

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280 Responses to Thursday update

  1. stmro says:

    Above 20dma now. Next stop 1990-2000 – THEN we should consider shorts.

    In the short term, it’s really not worth fighting interest rate expectations and currency market flows (which are many many times larger than equity markets) when the world’s 3rd largest economy delivers a policy shock like this.


  2. Gary Lewis says:

    Yesterday I mentioned that there was a successful three day test of the low on the change in the SPY moving average. This suggested that the market would be up today.

    sometimes my indicators work. Chart shows the pop, driven by higher SPY prices.


  3. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    And why can’t the mkt rally another 5-8% ???? seems like a lot of experts around here ….Same as 2008 ( seems to be the popular and most recent chart everyone refers ) maybe 2011. CN GOOD CALL ON BIG UP $rut…When the pitch is high , AAh stopped ( only want the best for u) tboys comes around . FRB goes positive. great time to lay em out . Market analyses goes positive


  4. Peter Sliney says:

    If there was a way to link your trading account to physical pain when losing money I think we would cut losses quicker. Unless of course you’re a masochist.


  5. Dex T says:

    From PUG

    On the S&P monthly chart the 13-month EMA crossed below the 20-month EMA on the month close

    This only happened only twice in the past 20 years: Dec 2000 and Feb 2008. Both times it confirmed a Bear Market.


  6. fotis2 says:

    Week bar close above -100 on weekly CCI..


  7. straight up 40 points, not even a 10 point pull back, just like old times, central bankers, and green, green all across the board. .


  8. mike7x says:

    FWIW: From NorthmanTrader: “Well I’ve been posting it for days on end and if you traded it you banked, spooky as it is, but here it is:”



    The Dow needs a closing above 16350 to stabilize for now temporarily. Otherwise, we are not out of the woods here until we pass March. To suggest that the major low has been made, the Dow would need to climb over 17750 level on a weekly closing basis. Keep in mind we are in a string of Directional Changes for the next 3 weeks. So expect this to remain vulnerable and choppy. The maximum on the downside if we elect a monthly bearish is to 12900 to 13000 zone. There, a closing below 16013 will be at least a warning of weakness for month-end.

    Crude has made a slight bounce, but it need desperately to close above $32.35 today just to pause. There is no change of a real reversal in trend here. Crude would need to closing above the $38.35 area just to hint that the low might be in place. Our timing targets are still pointing to this week/New Week. If this turns out to be a reaction high, then a rout to the downside may yet be in the cards. We have a Monthly Bearish coming into play at $36.65, $35.13, $33.30 and a key one at $30.10 followed by $28.25. So we would have to close above $36.65 to avoid a sell signal.


  10. Market is acting almost as though there is a pivot up here or something …


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