Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up turnaround, DOW +282

Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.5%. Europe opened lower but gained 0.5%. US index futures were sharply lower, China lost 6+%, then rebounded with a rally in Crude. At 9am Case-Shiller was reported higher: +5.8% v +5.5%, and the FHFA was reported higher: +0.5% v +0.5%. The market gapped up at the open to SPX 1888, ticked up to 1892, then pulled back to 1882 by 10am. At 10am Consumer confidence was reported higher: 98.1 v 96.5. The market then rallied to SPX 1907 by 1:30. After that the market pulled back to SPX 1896 just past 3pm, then bounced to close at 1904.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 1.60%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.00%. Bonds gained 5 ticks, Crude rose 90 cents, Gold rallied $12, and the USD was lower. Medium term support rises to the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Tomorrow: New home sales at 10am, then the FOMC statement at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, rallied to SPX 1892, pulled back, then hit 1907. A big rally considering China lost over 6% today. Yesterday we noted the market appeared to be in Intermediate wave B. The decline from SPX 1909 on Friday was three waves: 1889-1903-1876. We offered three support levels SPX: 1872, 1861 and 1849. The top two suggested the 1869 pivot range. The high end of that range occurred just before yesterday’s close. Despite today’s rally we are not convinced Intermediate B ended at SPX 1876, until the SPX clears 1909. Bear markets are quite volatile, and the FOMC meeting ends tomorrow. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance a the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum neared overbought after yesterday’s oversold condition. Best to your trading FED day!

MEDIUM TERM: potential uptrend underway

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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327 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. scottycj1 says:

    Outside day …….

  2. uncle10 says:

    pac man was hungry today. he always get a nice buffet on fed days😉

    • llerias7 says:

      Instead of “buy the deep” mantra now should be “sell the peak”…”what are you expecting…just short the…peak”…

  3. Dex T says:

    Why oil glut not going away soon

    “The U.S. has now stockpiled 1.2 billion barrels of crude, and the growing supply in Cushing, Oklahoma, and elsewhere has analysts concerned that oil will start becoming difficult to store, meaning its price on the cash market could get even cheaper. ”

    While the industry has been reporting rig shutdowns, the volume of oil pumped per day in the past week was steady at 9.2 million, but below the high of 9.6 million barrels per day in April.
    “That is worrisome. The weekly number has been steady at 9.2 million for some period of time, as the EIA says shale oil production is coming off,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. “It means the industry must be producing more in places like the Gulf of Mexico where the investments are coming to fruition at the same time onshore rig count is going down.”


    • mjtplayer says:

      Largest US oil inventory levels since 1990

      • Dex T says:

        and nobody can stop pumping. More from the article.

        “Bentek said oil production from the Eagle Ford shale basin in Texas actually increased slightly in December, by about 11,000 barrels per day, nearly 1 percent, from November.”

        “Wittner said an OPEC deal is unlikely, given the fact that Iran is just now returning to market. Genscape reports that a first shipload of oil left Iran for South Korea as sanctions against Iran were lifted.

        “The ship had been moored for a year, and Iran is estimated to have about 40 million to 50 million barrels of crude or condensates in storage on tankers.”

        “The tanker, Serena, left Iran on Jan. 15 and docked at Fujairah before setting a course for South Korea on Jan. 20, according to Genscape. “

        • simpleiam says:

          I get the distinct impression that larger U.S. producers might just decide to go to the mat with The Saudi’s. It’s a question of who suffers the most and yells “Uncle” first. (I can hear the puns already.) Could be that if Saudi’s want to play hardball, U.S. prods. might decide to end all this with a big bang. Have to remember that SA is loaded with U.S., U.K. and personnel from other countries, not as many SA personnel, comparatively speaking. It’s going to get real interesting… Hope I still have a job.

  4. phil1247 says:

    above 1877 es …..back to……you guessed it…………..1892 area

  5. Today we’ve gone both above 1,909 and below 1,878, swinging through 44 points from 1,917 down to 1,873.

    Tony, you’ve so far in response to comments said 1,909 was A and 1,878 looked like B. With the afternoon’s movement back below that B, would we say that 1,917 was C, and thus we’re headlong into the next major wave down?

    Or instead might it be that today’s 1,917 was actually A (closer to the 1,929 pivot), and we’re currently hunting for B? Thus still a rally higher for C still yet to come, which would then be that last, best chance to unload longs, for a long time to come?

  6. 123 abc says:

    Perhaps an irregular flat Intermediate-b is now complete, where approx Minor-c = Minor-a * 1.272
    SPY: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lzmOF2on/

  7. Gary Lewis says:

    SPX setting up for a possible key reversal day. Janet said that she will be watching the market closely. I wonder what blog she is posting to?

  8. Facebook is now what Apple use to be to the market. FB is going to smash earnings after the bell and take the market higher tomorrow. I own a Digital Marketing company and I can tell you that online marketing money is now shifted towards FB. Let’s see what happens.

  9. kvilia says:

    So was today the last chance to get out of longs??? Any takers on that question?

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