Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening sold, DOW +28

Over the extended weekend the Asian markets were flat, and European markets gained 1.3%. US index futures were significantly higher heading into the open, and the market gapped up to SPX 1901. The SPX had closed at 1880 on Friday. Immediately after the open the market started to pull back. By 10am the market nearly closed the gap when it hit 1886, then it rallied again. Also at 10am the NAHB was reported lower: 60 v 61. The market then rallied back to the high of the day at SPX 1901 by 10:30. After that the selling renewed. By 11:30 the SPX hit 1884, rallied to 1896 just before noon, then headed even lower. Just before 3pm the SPX hit 1865, then rallied to 1889, before closing nearly unchanged at 1881. Volatility continues.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.10%, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Bonds lost 5 ticks, Crude dropped 85 cents, Gold slipped $1, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Tomorrow: Housing starts, Building permits and the CPI at 8:30.

US index futures were sharply higher overnight, eased back some into the open, and the market gapped up 20 points. Today was the twelfth consecutive gap opening since December 30th: 7 up – 5 dn, when the market closed at SPX 2063. Quite a volatile period since the beginning of the year. The market opened at SPX 1901, pulled back to 1886, then hit 1901 again. At that second high we could count a potential five waves up from Friday’s SPX 1858 low: 1885-1873-1901-1886-1901. After that the market did three waves down: 1884-1896-1865. As long as the SPX 1858 low holds, this could imply some impulsive activity underway, or even a 5-3-5 zigzag higher. Short term support remains at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum was slightly oversold at today’s low after hitting neutral this morning. Best to your trading!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bear market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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404 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. stephenk1980 says:

    A = C is just too easy. Will be very surprised if this is ‘it’.

  2. Prepare for wave 3, next to come

  3. phil1247 says:

    going to wait for ext short .50 level of 1892 es before i add any more shorts

  4. rc1269 says:

    going forward i think maybe i’ll just post when i think there is a noteworthy move about to take place. otherwise i’m still disinclined to meander through the rocket ships, LIS’s and other chest thumping anarchy. if you have a specific Q for me feel free to ask. i will try to answer.
    best. -rc

  5. johnnymagicmoney says:

    This is what I was seeing

    Gilead trading at 7 times earnings
    Blackstone having a 13.5% Yield and cut in half
    Airlines dropping 20% in 3 weeks on falling oil
    People giving projections the SP would drop to 1500 before there was a bounce

    overdone for now

  6. Page says:

    Chinese New Year falls on February 8, Chinese QE is imminent.

    • Dex T says:

      4:30 p.m.

      “A prominent Chinese banker says authorities in China need to let more companies fail as the country adapts to a new age of slower economic growth.”

      “Concerns about China’s economy have hammered financial markets this year and are at the top of the agenda for many participants at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.”

      “Zhang Yichen, CEO of CITIC Capital, says Chinese authorities are protecting state companies from downsizing, which is a politically delicate issue when it involves job cuts. That makes it harder for the private sector to grow. He told a panel in Davos that to solve the country’s problem of overcapacity “we should let some (state-owned companies) fail.”


  7. Impressive… Latest numbers: Buy above 1899.96 with bear leg challenged above 1888.29.

  8. Dex T says:

    There must be some central bank or hedge fund buying to prop the markets up. Since it coincides with Davos such a move makes sense.

    MACD on 5 min chart is nearly at 10!!!. Went from incredibly oversold to incredibly overbought.

  9. Lee X says:

    You guys are so full of crap! hahahaha but thats ok I knew that already
    But I’m glad the market came back so you can make some decisions and happy for those who rode it down and made a little .

    Awesome moves !

  10. johnnymagicmoney says:

    I think that was it………………….price, commentary, projections, breadth, fear, and lots of other little nuances ………….for the time being it screamed short term bottom today. Can you imagine if it closed at the lows of the day? lol that would be bad

  11. John Arella says:

    Previous 4th wave is from 1900-1940 so this level will likely stop any rally, anyone else see this ?

  12. buddyglove says:

    Just my thoughts. Bullish pattern in play here AB=CD between red lines, pos-div, bear-trap, hammer low on daily setting up sentiment etc. Could be the Low for 2016 aimho and glta
    Es continuous Daily.

    • buddyglove says:

      Weekly ES continuous with Divergent Rsi-14, also supporting bullish view. aimho.

      • mjtplayer says:

        The market turned around, which means it’s time for bullish charts from BG

        Please my friend, do yourself a favor and sell this rally. Not sure where it ends, but a 50% retrace from 2,082 would get you about 1,940’s. If we get there, sell the farm.

    • kvilia says:

      This would put you in the P IV end, PV start camp, bg. I am not EW or OEW person, wondering if you (or someone else) have a wave structure for this scenario.

    • Dex T says:

      Low for 2016? Not by a longshot- not with taking out the Oct 2014 low. The bear case continues to amass evidence. A temporary low that will be retested later.

  13. John Arella says:

    Last Hour Rally, will short this at the at of the day 🙂

    • stmro says:

      I’d be careful shorting this if we close above 1850ish. I haven’t seen a single bullish daily candle since the decline started. However if we get a hammer forming by EOD, there could be a bear market rally ahead, and those can get pretty wild.

    • John Arella says:

      Got out of my xivs and went short, don’t trust this market and I think oil will fall further tomorrow morning. 🙂

  14. lunker1 says:

    hey HD
    1901 – (89) = 1812

  15. 1130am:SpY volume 77m
    2:43pm volume 190m.
    Volume slowing down.

  16. torehund says:

    Already Cycle W-2 proportions on the Rut, not in Price but on the Weekly macd. Abc down from top has as usual differing interpretations as to where the C ends. That makes it difficult to ascertain where one has to leave the abc scenario and lean towards a 3rd down. No easy clear cut choices as of yet.

  17. Millan Tomic says:

    XLV made a huge intraday reversal from both the LR rising trendline/32 month MA in a 5 w structure. Gotta be worth something

  18. 18 12 on sp500 was 250% extension of wave 1 of 3…

    23-38% fib 4 of 3 says 1875-1915

  19. For anyone:The current oil contract expires today.The next month is about 28 dollars +.When figuring technicals how does the rollover play into it.How do the charts get adjusted since everyone thought we were only $1 away from $25 support–now we ll be $3 away.

    • phil1247 says:

      yes … with contract change every month its crazy to keep track o f cl

      thats why i use sco to trade it

      i just use the cl chart to give me a more liquid view of whats going on because every trade on sco is a gap

      you could just use the single month contract CLH6 which is apples to apples

      its too exhausting ….going to stick with spx and tyx

      • phil1247 says:

        also… its 27 dollars now

        it could go to 20 or 10

        but it wont go negative like rates

        event risk like mushroom cloud in middle east could put shorts in a world of hurt

        im staying away now

  20. phil1247 says:

    prediction for spx close today

    1855 …the extension long 50% level shown on the monthly chart previously

  21. aahmichael says:

    The last three down waves have interesting symmetry:
    1950-1879 = 71 points
    1935-1858 = 77 points
    1889-1812 = 77 points

  22. anyone counting waves from the low. been away, missed a little, 1812 straight up to 1845? so far, without a 10 point pull back Thanks in advance

  23. jobjas says:

    Trading and blogging cannot go together . One needs a focused discipline to trade . Those who blog continuously do not trade and posting opinions without technical basis only detracts other traders .

  24. fotis2 says:

    Decent looking 3BR on the hourly..

  25. phil1247 says:

    all CL targets hit at noon today

    out of oil shorts….no more CL trading for me until there is a better frame of reference

  26. stcoleridge says:

    Tchaikovsky. 1812 Overture.

    • fionamargaret says:

      did not know Mr. Coleridge you were in to music too – just liked you and willie w. doing what romantics do….x

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