SHORT TERM: bear market confirmed, DOW -391
Overnight the Asian markets lost 1.1%. Europe opened higher but lost 2.3%. US index futures were sharply lower overnight. At 8:30 Retail sales were reported lower: -0.1% v +0.2%, the PPI was reported lower: -0.2% v +0.3%, and the NY FED was reported lower: -19.4 v -4.6. At 9:15 Industrial production was reported lower: -0.4% v -0.6%, and Capacity utilization was lower as well: 76.5% v 77.0%. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1889, dropped to 1877, bounced to 1888, then hit 1873 by 10am. The market had closed at SPX 1922 yesterday. Also at 10am Consumer sentiment was reported higher: 93.3 v 92.6, and Business inventories were reported lower: -0.2% v 0.0%. The market rallied back to the opening level at SPX 1889 by 10:30, dropped to 1858 by 12:30, and then started to rebound. In the afternoon the market rallied to SPX 1876 by 2pm, dipped to 1867 by 2:30, rallied to 1883 just past 3pm, dipped to 1873, then bounced to close at 1880.
For the day the SPX/DOW lost 2.25%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.90%. Bonds gained 21 ticks, Crude lost $1.55, Gold rallied $11, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Today the WLEI was reported lower: 48.5% v 48.6%.
The market gapped down at the open to end the week, after five successive gap up openings that had a net effect of -1.0%. After the first half hour of trading the market found support just above the August/September lows and tried to rally. The rally attempts failed as the market broke below that SPX 1867-1872 low, and hit 1858 just past noon. After that the market rallied into the close to finish at SPX 1880. Lots to cover in the weekend update, holiday on Monday, best to your three day weekend!
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend
LONG TERM: bear market