Thursday update

SHORT TERM: gap down opening again, DOW -392

Overnight the Asian markets lost 2.5%, China stopped trading after 1/2 hour with a 7% loss. Europe opened lower and lost 2.0%. US index futures reacted to China’s decline and were substantially lower. At 8:30 weekly Jobless claims were reported lower: 277K v 287K. The market gapped down at the open to SPX 1962, hit 1954 in the opening minutes, then rallied to 1968 just before 10am. The market had closed at SPX 1991 yesterday. After a pullback to SPX 1959 at 10am, the market rallied to 2077 by 11am before heading even lower. At 2:30 the SPX hit 1941, rebounded to 1954, then headed lower again. At 3:30 the SPX hit 1939, rallied to 1952 just before the close, then end the day at 1943.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 2.35%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 3.05%. Bonds gained 9 ticks, Crude lost 75 cents, Gold rallied $15, and the USD was lower. Medium term support drops to the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Payrolls (est. +200K) at 8:30, Wholesale inventories at 10am, and Consumer credit at 3pm.

The market gapped down at the open today for the fourth time in the last five trading days. At the open the market dropped below the 1973 pivot and the potential support levels we noted yesterday. Then after hitting the 1956 pivot the market rallied to the 1973 pivot before heading even lower. This market has remained in sell mode since the last two days of 2015. The turmoil in China’s market has overflowed into world markets yet again. The market action in China tonight could be quite important heading into the US open tomorrow. Be careful! Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum continues to display a positive divergence, but thus far the market has not reacted positively. Best to your trading with China and monthly Payrolls on tap!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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370 Responses to Thursday update

  1. Chris C says:

    If you really think everyone on CNBC today is correct in calling a bear market don’t panic. You will be able to get out @ 2040 at some point in the next couple months. Also, every indicator I look at says a BIG bounce is upon us. Maybe starting by wednesday?

  2. simpleiam says:

    Think we MIGHT have gotten the flush. Bought UPRO right here. Will drop on Monday if big down is imminent. GL All!

    • alexhartley1 says:

      I think you may see a pre-market flush iam and open down on the open but perhaps a recovery after that. First I think 1900 though.

      • simpleiam says:

        Anything’s possible, alex. I become suspicious when the pivot is barely broken after a flush, then, pops back up into the pivot range (barely) at the close. GL to You!

  3. stmro says:

    1929 pivot broken. What a week.

  4. cmucha68 says:

    This Guy xuwu99200 is really great with his calls: “We will see 1980 at the end of the day, bought calls at 1940. At the beginning of the week he told here will will see for sure a top of 2040 today.” And now he was a asked to manage money form someone else. Another dreamer like FRB from finacialreportsblog with the magic words “we will see”. Can’t believe that these people do not feel ashame. When they throw a dart and have luck they think they are kings. And afterwards silence again ot they disappear. I remember rabbittrader, he insisted we will se for sure 1700 and way below last year. Now he claims 1400. But I guess we all need some jokes from time to time.

    • aahmichael says:

      At least xuwu uses stops and cuts his losses short. The other guy does just the opposite. He went long at last Thursday’s close at 2043, and then **quadrupled** his long position at the close this Wednesday at 1990. He never uses stops, so he now has an open cumulative loss of 325 S&P points in just 5 days. Can you feel the magic????

      • Aahm, you’re way off as usual. If you knew how to properly structure Options trades you would realize that I will almost certainly make a large profit on the next move, just a matter of time until the market pays up. You seem to care so much about what people think, which is why you post your “trades” hours after the fact; I care about increasing my account so I can better the lives of others via my charitable giving, etc. To each his own, hang in there and try to enjoy your weekend!

        • fotis2 says:

          You wrong.Aamichael has not posted a single trade after hours..

          • You’re wrong fotis. He said his stop was 50 or 60 SPX points above, that was at SPX 2010-2020; it then went to 2080 then back down, and only THEN – hours or even a day after the fact – mysteriously claim he was still in the trade, etc. Anyone who knows people well could tell he was being untruthful, not to mention the telltale sign of posting a trade long after the fact. Everyone gets this. Check his recent comments and you’ll see. Why someone would post made-up trades after the fact is another matter and speaks for itself. Again, almost everyone gets this. Have a good weekend.

          • aahmichael says:

            You are correct, Fotis. Anyone can go back and check the time stamp of all of my posts.

          • Unfactual/untruthful as usual. Whether intentional or not is only of secondary importance. It’s right there in black and white.

          • aahmichael says:

            Yes, FRB, here it is in black and white for you. Please notice the timestamp. The date says 12/23. That’s not hours after the market went above 2077, as you claim. It was 6 days BEFORE the market went above 2077. Now, please go and spend the weekend trying re-optimze you magic indicator again. It appears to have lost its magic.

          • aahmichael says:

            aahmichael says:
            December 23, 2015 at 3:27 pm

            Today’s action has caused me to change my count slightly. I see this week’s rally as either wave E of a triangle, or wave C of a flat that began at 1993. I remain short at 2063 from last Thursday. With the full moon on the 25th, I have to allow the market two more trading days of breathing room, so I have temporarily raised my stop to 2105.

          • Unfactual/untruthful as usual aahm. That’s not the post. Even timmy noticed and called you out. Many other readers were nodding in agreement. You know what you did, not once but at least twice recently. Why anyone would do so is obvious to others and should be of great concern to you. Take care.

    • Cmu, why do you always sound so sad and negative? I have a long list of people who have told me they’ve made real money off of my blog, what have you done to help anyone? Focus on the latter, and you will cure what ails you. I sincerely wish you all the best.

      P.S. good for xuwu for posting his trades in trying to help others; right or wrong, at least his heart seems to be in the right place. If you’re any good, post your thoughts (in real-time, not hours after the fact like aahm) like xuwu does and we’ll see how you do and your input might mean something and even help others, gasp! Lol, take care.

  5. Brrrrrrr.. Going to have to leave this to hearty souls like El Mat. Have a great weekend all. Flat.

  6. Dex T says:

    This week must have set a record in worst 1st weeks.

    Worst week in how many years? decades?

  7. wavediver says:

    BJ, yesterday I posted potential cluster areas for Maj-A (1901-1910 and 1850-1859). You have anything similar?

  8. To Buy or not to Buy. 1929 Pivot.

  9. reckless says:

    gap zone from Oct 5th now being filled

  10. Lee X says:

    Hell of a week eh Tony ?

    Now a lil polar vortex to put a cherry on top.

    Have a great weekend everyone !

    • tony caldaro says:

      Yep, heartland floods to freeze and waterfalls markets.
      While pistol pete Jong tries to plays big, and king Saud executes clergy.

      • torehund says:

        You summed it up concise, good weekend Tony.
        Its skating time.

      • Dex T says:

        With oil in the low 30’s and dwindling cash reserve the Saudis are facing massive civil unrest. They’ve already been involved in fighting in Yemen for a while.

        It’s no surprise or secret that their military budget and security is increased.

        The Middle East has little revenue outside of oil and WAY too many people living on the land. I would expect the fightings and executions to intensify.

  11. stmro says:

    No one wants to be a hero going into the weekend, especially considering the risk of waking up to another huge gap down.

  12. wavediver says:

    We’re going lower.

  13. llerias7 says:

    Come on, join the Bear…it is his time to party!

Comments are closed.