Tuesday update

SHORT TERM: gap up opening faded, DOW +10

Overnight the Asian markets lost 0.4%. Europe opened higher and gained 0.4%. US index futures were lower, then higher, overnight and the market gapped up to SPX 2020 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2013 yesterday. In the opening minutes the market ticked up to SPX 2021, and then began to pullback. At 10:30 the SPX hit 2007, rallied to 2018 by 11am, and then pulled back to 2004 by around 12:30. After that the market rallied to its high of the day at SPX 2022 by 2:30, pulled back to 2011. then bounced to close at 2117.

For the day the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.25%. Bonds gained 4 ticks, Crude slid 95 cents. Gold added $3, and the USD was higher. Medium term support remains at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: the ADP at 8:15, Trade deficit at 9am, Factory orders and ISM services at 10am, then FOMC minutes at 2pm.

The market gapped up at the open today, hit SPX 2021, pulled back to 2004, then rallied to 2022. While the gap up opening constructively continued yesterday’s afternoon rally, the pullback into early afternoon today suggests it is all corrective. Thus far from yesterday’s SPX 1990: 2006-1994-2021-2004-2022. Notice the second pullback (2004) overlapped the first rally (2006). This suggests yesterday’s low may have only completed Minor A of Int. C, and the recent rally is Minor B with Minor C down yet to occur. Lower support remains at SPX 1990, and the 1973/1956 pivots. Short term support is at SPX 1990/93 and the 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2044/46. Short term momentum bounced to neutral after yesterday’s extreme oversold condition. Best to your trading the often volatile FOMC minutes!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

About tony caldaro

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300 Responses to Tuesday update

  1. fotis2 says:

    From the begining of this down move this is the 4th test off the weekly S3 on all 3 previous occasions the following day traded back to pivot.Pivot =2054

  2. simpleiam says:

    Looked like a small flush down to 1980ish and bounce. Hmm. Within 1973 piv range, so might have to look closely at it. Gl All!

  3. magnus1234 says:

    Anyone else reading an ED; 2000, 2021, 1979, 2002, 1978 ? It is there on DAX as well.

  4. Dex T says:

    J.P. Morgan’s 2016 IB predictions. Most of them are not very positive. Low growth and lots of cost cutting (layoffs) ahead

    J.P. Morgan’s 14 predictions for investment banking revenues and jobs in 2016 and beyond

    “9. The big issue now is cutting costs in the middle and back office
    The real issue for 2016 and onwards is the dramatic increase in infrastructure costs, driven by regulatory and IT spend. Unless banks can get this under control, they will never achieve the sort of return on equity investors are looking for.”

    “11. In fact, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BNP, SocGen, and to a lesser extent, Goldman Sachs, need to make some enormous cuts to their back office headcount to maintain a low double digit return on equity
    J.P. Morgan thinks Deutsche needs to cut 25% of its back office headcount to get its return on equity back to 12% after regulations. Barclays needs to cut 30%.”


  5. wavediver says:

    Tony, did NAS get a downtrend confirmation?

  6. wavediver says:

    Day’s not over yet…

  7. budfox9450 says:

    OEW SP500 60 min chart – has the look. From the 2081
    high to be 5 wave down…is that possible?

  8. News crossing the wires at a feverish pace. World Bank taking advantage of cover provided by US Fed, North Korea, China PMI et al…to release their downward revision of global growth. I guess Terror is taking a day off. I’m longing for the good old days of Ebola, Greek Crises, etc. Whatever happened to all that money “on the sidelines” and stimulus effect of lower prices at the pump? Aren’t we due for a surge in new year mutual fund investment and a rally in small caps on dollar strength? Things used to be so orderly – Bush’s fault! j/k of course. Exciting times!

  9. fotis2 says:

    1980ish for weekly bullflag aficionados.

  10. GYN LAB says:

    Another big down day, but NYAD is holding above -2000, and +D holding so far. I would go for a long try at 1965 area, preferably tomorrow morning for a nice turnaround (Bradley date today though weak)

  11. jobjas says:

    wave 1 target met at ES 1972

  12. phil1247 says:

    ice ice baby

    flash crash baby

  13. fishonhook says:

    The reason some of you who post your predictions here get negative responses is due to your own pumped up egos.

    How often do we read” well I guess I got that wrong”. Not often. usually it is , “hey look at me I got it so right ” even when you didn’t. Or you post so many different versions of your prediction that there is always a post that can back you up.

    If it turns you on to show off to anonymously, so be it, but don’t be shocked if you get negative response.

    • Gary Lewis says:

      Can always count on a wise-ass comment from you.

      • phil1247 says:

        its a product of having blown up his account and having no money left to trade
        nothing left for him to do but make comments like that gary

      • fishonhook says:

        Well Gary , most people on this site are looking for someone to tell them where the market is going. It has taken me many years to realize that no one really knows.

        So why am I here? because it is interesting to exchange ideas and guesses.

        But when idiots come and say that they never get it wrong it boils my blood. You want to praise the call-of-the-day go for it.

    • gtoptions says:

      Some of us have a strategery! 😉

    • That’s only part of it. I believe some trade off of others views. And when they lose, as they inevitably do, they will lash out.

      So far, xuwu has been straight up about trades taken (pos and neg). Props for that.

    • chrisk44342 says:

      True enough. I don’t make predictions, but I did get it wrong. I was long headed into the overnight and that did not work out too well for me. VIX was still reflecting a bullish direction for the market. Ouch! It happens.

  14. purplember says:

    if A = C then Major 2 bottom would be 1970 or at Tony’s 1973 pivot. is that what many are expecting ?

  15. simpleiam says:

    Here’s what happens when a trader falls in love with a “perma” anything, whether Bull or Bear… For All who like the punishment, this is for You! 🙂

  16. xuwu992000 says:

    CALL ME A GAMBLER: I bought $5000 worth of call option, expire 1/8, 203 at 0.24 per piece, at around 1989-1990.

    • bhuggs52 says:

      XUWU, I like your style and you have until Friday to see green on your call options, right? One small detail in your favor, there’s the look of a consolidation floor over the last three days, so odds could suggest a turn-around at this level. At the same time, the mkt might like to dip once more today or first thing tomorrow, to complete its recent corrective move. In any event, your posts are gutsy and a pleasure to follow. GL.

      • xuwu992000 says:

        Thanks, I re-bought back 2000$ worth of short-term call option (1/8, expires 2020 at 0.23) at 1980; will hold them until at least tomorrow. Will talk about today’s trading in my blog, wow, that was thrilling and fun!!

    • xuwu wuxu says:


      • llerias7 says:

        Your long-term view of a Triangle for P4 is quite apealing! I find hard to believe we are in P5 and seems to soon for a huge Bear Cycle 2 down wave…I am searching for clues like everyone else, right?

    • xuwu wuxu says:

      I am out of all my long positions as well. For a small loss.

      • aahmichael says:

        It’s tough trying to stand in front of a continually subdividing impulse wave, especially when continues to put in 3 bar hourly reversals.

  17. Dex T says:

    According to Goldman S. political uncertainty will be the driver for markets for 2016!

    Goldman Sachs: THIS will drive markets in 2016

    “Rocky geopolitics are sure to drive global markets in 2016, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, said Wednesday. ”

    “Political uncertainty at one level or another is one of the risks that we see of being quite high through the year, and that should be reflected quite high in risky premium and risky assets,” Oppenheimer told CNBC’s “Worldwide Exchange.”

    “The main view that we’ve had for this year is one of quite high volatility,” he added


    • I ll read that report when I have insomnia…the highlights were not interesting at all..Hope they don t get paid minimum wage for that kind of uncreative work.”Political risks”…that s EVERY year…lol.

  18. xuwu992000 says:

    Very good prediction here. This is a rough roadmap I posted after Monday’s slaughter.

  19. The chorus(chaos) of Fed Speakers ahead of release of the minutes from their last meeting is telling. They’re obviously concerned that the tenor of those minutes are incongruous with the current context of global and domestic economies & markets. Concerned that they made the right decision at precisely the wrong time. Now, they risk not only exacerbating a decline – but actually causing it on a grand scale. Picking the lesser of two evils, rather than admitting incompetence, they’ve (past & present members) acknowledged inflating markets via QE and ZIRP with good intentions despite countless denials of the same previously. I never had much faith in their tinkering so this is not surprising – I just hope that their buffoonery doesn’t hasten the coming bear market and/or recession.

    • Will the minutes confirm what Fischer and Williams just said and how will the markets interpret it?Can they raise rates as GDP estimates continue to decline?Are they certified head in the sand lunatics?They screwed this up–now will they do it again by ignoring the less than 1% economy ?A year ago there was GDP north of 5% and they didn t raise rates…so now they will?Riiiight.Over the stock markets dead body.

      • Would not be surprised to see a test of TCs 1,956 pivot very soon – will add more UPRO there. My line in the sand is 1,870s – if we get there and fail to rocket higher, my 2016 is toast 😟

        • aahmichael says:

          You don’t have to wait until 1870 is taken out. The TL that held the market at 1870 is now sitting at approximately 1930. If that region can’t hold the market, then it’s going to blow through 1870 as if it never existed and continue down to 1750.

    • budfox9450 says:

      Your maybe right – but – I think there
      are a lot of things “coming apart”..
      A negative out come.

    • aahmichael says:

      How can anyone take the Fed seriously? In September, they decided to keep rates unchanged, and they told us that their reason for not raising was the weakness in the global markets. During the next three months, the global markets weakened even further, so what does the Fed do? They raise rates…and they raise rates without a single word about the global markets. Now all the talk is about how many increases occur in 2016, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re forced to LOWER rates again in 2016.

  20. budfox9450 says:

    BoYu update, 11.46am est SP500….
    BoYu remains on a sell signal, with no indication
    of a near term reversal. The low today is at an
    equal level of the 12/11 low. Fid is at 50%
    of the 8/25/15 low to the 11/13/15 high.
    Conclusion: be patient and wait for the signal.

  21. stephenk1980 says:

    Those expecting a big drop or major 3 from here will be very disappointed; imo we’re in 1 of C down and 2 of C will both trick bulls and bust all but the strongest bear stops.

  22. rc1269 says:

    no impulsing yet; still just looks like more intraday bear flagging so far

  23. torehund says:


    on 1d chart from beginning nov top A-X-b-C complete, see if it holds

  24. H D says:

    CL went $(55)- $(34), where is that “like I said” button. Widowmaker. Was pretty crowded, longs. Think they have backed off IMO.

  25. if minor B ended at 2022 then a down to 1985 B to 2000 final wave down yet to come.

  26. Monthly trend line from 2009 low shows 1929 pivot should get hit. Any thoughts on that Tony or others.

    • Vox Zeit says:

      From Intermediate-b at 2082, here is an attempt at Intermediate-c squiggle count…

      Based on the above speculation, currently in progress is:
      Major-2 ⇒ Intermediate-c ⇒ Minor-c ⇒ Minute-a ⇒ Micro-c

      Intermediate-c ⇒ Minor-a = Intermediate-c ⇒ Minor-c @ 1929 pivot
      Intermediate-c @ 1.382 x Intermediate-a = 1929 pivot.

  27. timmy321 says:

    Tony, what the heck is going on here? We need some input 🙂

  28. thoth8 says:

    Never thought that this “Muffin Boy” was watching the Pivot lines to blow up his hydrogen bomb..hmm…

  29. phil1247 says:


    another chance to enter short crude oil coming up

  30. ABchart says:

    2011: Major 2 retraced exactly 61.8% of Major 1
    2016: 61.8% of Major 1 = 1963

  31. kevinm76 says:

    Hey somebody NEEDS to update the GOLD and $GPX charts. Who ever is in charge of these(Patrick M?) is completely dropping the ball here. The wedge/ending diagonal on $GPX and $GOLD should NOW show E in December. However imho December should be labeled 5 and A http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/11

    Amazing how all of the so called experts missed this move up. Too busy drinking eggnog i guess lol.


  32. Thanks TC!
    Flat at this point but system still pointing down. Bear leg under pressure with move above 2028.18. Another break below 1987.59 could entice a short out of me for short-term (mu ha ha). 🙂

  33. GDX move above 50d and gold over 1080 an excellent first step.Silver not confirming however and it seems to me as equities hold at 1990 gold backs off.Gold watching a break of 1990 for the next move up.Good luck all.

    • kevinm76 says:

      Silver plays games in Jan, then in Feb/March it goes ballistic. Thats usually the routine. While Gold has nice and steady climb.

      I believe the overall stock market will bottom in March, so with this in mind the metals market should outperform nicely.

      Silver has a industry component to it and as such needs the stock market to behave.

      • Before the August selloff in equities,gold had a nice rally if I remember right,for a couple days.My point being this morning as the Dow meanders at -180…I wonder if gold is saying(especially if it keeps going up to 1100)that stocks are heading under 1980.Just a theory.

  34. mjtplayer says:

    This mornings low of SPX 1,985 (about 198.25 on the SPY) is right at my max-pain “line in the sand” for any potential flag pattern. Either this mornings’ low completed the drop, or something else is doing on. If SPX 1,985 is taken-out and closed below, we have big problems – IMO.

    One issue I do have is the uptrend line on the SPY from the 8/24 flash low has been broken. On 8/24, the SPX didn’t open at the low it should’ve, but the SPY did. If one connects an uptrend line from the 8/24 low, 9/29 low and Monday’s low (which undercut the TL by a few pennies, but quickly reversed), you can see that today’s drop clearly broke that TL. That TL stands at about SPY 199.25 today – very concerning.


    • ABchart says:

      Hey MJT,

      “we have big problems” not too big imho. Only 15/20 pts drop (ES 1958 / SPX 1966).

      • mjtplayer says:

        Hey AB,

        I pay very close attention to TL’s, when a TL is broken, a trend is broken – that’s my concern, not which level we could bounce from below 1,985.

        The break today of that TL in the SPY is very concerning to me, the more time we spend trading below the TL, the more evidence that the trend (from the 8/24 lows) has been broken.

        Here’s another great example of how important TL’s are – this is a weekly chart of DIS. We breached the long-term TL on the flash drop – no big deal right? It serves as a warning shot, a yellow flag if you will. Now, here we are back to the TL in a critical test. DIS must hold above $98.50 on a weekly basis this week ($99 next week). Below that, especially on a weekly closing basis, would be a major red flag and signal a potential break in trend.


        • aahmichael says:

          TL support in SPX today is 1970. That’s the TL from the July high. SPX broke through that TL on 10/22, and hasn’t been able to get below it since. Of course, I believe that it will ultimately fail, but there is support there for now.

        • aahmichael says:

          I never use the SPY chart for TLs or EW counts because that chart gets severely distorted every time there is a dividend. SPY can be used for candlestick analysis, but that’s it.

        • ABchart says:

          Thank you for the explanations MJT.

        • EL MATADOR says:

          I’m not a fan of spy chart either MJ, I know it works great for those that have a good handle of it, but me personally I prefer ES, SPX24 (aka SPX500 – Tradingview chart) and SPX.

    • gtoptions says:

      Agree with below comments. Agree, the SPY is non-confirmist to TL. Unless they bend. 😉

    • fotis2 says:

      ”But I don’t want to go among mad people”
      “Oh you can’t help,that” said the cat ”We’re all mad here”. Alice in Wonderland…

  35. xuwu992000 says:

    Trading Alert: Initiate 25% long at 1988. W-(b) of W-B flat probably ends at 1986. As indicated in yesterday’s update, I will add longs once the market falls below 1990.

  36. phil1247 says:


    possible short squeeze developing

  37. Dex T says:

    Fischer has come out today echoing the remarks Williams made the other day of 4 rate hikes this year.

    Fed’s Fischer says four rate hikes in 2016 ‘in the ballpark’

    “Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Wednesday that four rate hikes by the U.S. central bank this year is close to his expectations, but added that global uncertainty could still veer this path off course.”


  38. OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

    Not a big 3x guy just bot 10,00- erx 21.88

    • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

      10,000, nothing is easy but this should be a great call

      • phil1247 says:

        erx target…..

        near zero

        • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

          That’s funny , 26.80 .
          p.s. short covering happens on lows –
          Good luck kid

          • phil1247 says:

            actually target is 16.23

            then on towards zero

          • phil1247 says:

            drawdown of about $ 10,000.00 already

            where is your stop loss ???

            good luck kid

          • OneAndOnlyUniverse says:

            Phil ,
            Actually down more than that , bot another 4k @21.18 so cost is 21.68. I will buy another 6k down in here / add on the way up another 10k . I don’t trade with stops but I do trade around my position . Good level to position these. I hope I’m right and for some reason I guess you hope I’m wrong. Good luck kid

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