Monday update

SHORT TERM: 2016 off to rough start, DOW -276

On Sunday FED vice chair Fischer gave a speech: Overnight Asian markets were sharply lower, led by China’s 7% drop, and lost 2.7%. Europe opened lower and lost 3.1%. US index futures were sharply lower as well, and the market gapped down to SPX 2012 at the open. The market had closed at SPX 2044 on Thursday. In the opening minutes the SPX hit 2000, bounced to 2008, and then headed lower. At 10am Construction spending was reported lower: -0.4% v +1.0%, and ISM manufacturing was lower: 48.2 v 48.6. By 11am the SPX had hit 1990 and then started to rally. Just before 1pm the SPX hit 2006, pulled back to 1994 by 3:30, then rallied to close at 2013.

For the day the SPX/DOW lost 1.55%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.05%. Bonds gained 10 ticks, Crude slid 15 cents, Gold rallied $14, and the USD was higher. Medium term support drops to the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Tomorrow: monthly Auto sales.

The market gapped down at the open today, jumping completely below support at SPX 2034/2044, and opened at 2012. It then traded down to SPX 1990 before it had its first notable rally of the day. A somewhat disturbing way to start the new year. During the second half of December the market gyrated between a continuing downtrend and a potential new uptrend. The up/down trend inflection point was at SPX 2044, and the uptrend needed to clear the 2085 pivot. Today’s action finally cleared the pattern: a continuing downtrend. It is now clear that SPX 1993 was a complex Int. A, SPX 2082 completed Int. B, and Int. C has been underway, for the past three days, for the Major wave 2 downtrend. This correction has certainly taken longer than expected. At today’s low the market could have completed a flat: 1993-2082-1990. Or it could extend into a zigzag with equal A and C waves: 1993-2082-1971? The short term MACD is already oversold, like it was during Int. ii and Int. iv of Major 1, and Int. A of Major 2. Short term support is at SPX 1990/1993 and 1973 pivot, with resistance at the 2019 pivot and SPX 2044/46. Short term momentum hit extremely oversold at today’s low. Best to your trading this volatile market!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: bull market


About tony caldaro

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199 Responses to Monday update

  1. Dex T says:

    For all the gold buyers out there:

    Lego Sets Have Been a Better Investment than Gold Since 2000

    “In the last 15 years, the average value of a Lego set has gone up, with “pristine condition” sets appreciating 12%, according to the Telegraph, which added that prices jump when a model is discontinued, and that sets from last year are up around 36%.”

    “This kind of return is incredible. In that same span, the S&P 500 has returned about 4.2% annually, gold 9.6%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is about the same as it was at the turn of the millennium.”

    • fionamargaret says:

      …at the moment, $5 is the price to buy UGLD….but then my P&F on FCX is 0..I wonder if Icahn knows…

      • tony caldaro says:

        think Icahn is more concerned with getting the worm out of his AAPL stock😉

      • Jim Guthery says:

        Icahn knows something we don’t see coming.

        • fionamargaret says:

          I think Jim, we all have a feeling for what is possibly coming – overpriced housing, overpriced stocks – where to put your money??
          Now, mining stocks have something tangible (just not the buyers of their products at present), but if you are prepared to wait…….and you don’t need the money……

  2. Arthur Knopf says:

    One thing everyone should consider here. After Mondays sharp drop supposedly linked to the 7% limit down in Chinas SSEC, 50% of SSEC stocks have had trading halted since August crash. On Jan 8, the trading ban will be lifted. I was expecting a rally at least back to 2050 then ba-boom, but smart traders may be waiting to see what happens. In other words, no bottom until possible Fri-Mon selloff in SSEC.

    • wavediver says:


    • Dex T says:

      Jan 8 is this Friday. So another massive crash expected?

      • frankrizzo31 says:

        The ban can also be extended potentially locking out institutional investors looking to unload. Either way, this doesn’t bode well for China. Trying to control the market rather than letting the market forces dictate will have major consequences for the Chinese.

        • reddragonleo says:

          Fear not… as soon as all the insiders sell everything they will let the market fall. They are only holding it up (or trying to hold it up) so they can get out themselves. Once they are all out (the criminals that run the market over there I mean) they will pull the rug out and let it crash. Might not happen until later this year? Who knows when?

          • frankrizzo31 says:

            Hmm not sure if the insiders can sell as they can be sent to the gulag and do hard labor for 20 years or maybe if they are lucky, a bullet to the head. Unless you are referring the insiders to the communist leaders who run the country and control the wealth.

    • reddragonleo says:

      So you are looking for more selling in front of the 8th? And then what? Explain please.

      • fionamargaret says:

        I seem to think short selling was to be allowed again on the SSEC (starting the day of the crash), so that has to be worked into the system again also… and games.

  3. simpleiam says:

    As Lee would say, “Ah, the internet…”

    Looky what we got goin’ on here! Can hardly wait to hear Tony’s opinion in today’s Update.

  4. mjtplayer says:

    Finally, the market is acting the way it should off a low. Need to clear this SPX 2,021 area ASAP.

    Clearing the 2,050 area will be critical, a failure there would be very disappointing.

  5. mjtplayer says:

    Those hoping for the Dollar to stabilize and stop rallying in order to help commodity, HY and emerging markets may want to look at a chart of the EUR/USD. After all, the Euro is 57% of the .DXY

    Once the .DXY breaks the 100 – 100.51 resistance area, look out above. Same story with the Euro, once it breaks the 1.0465 – 1.06 support zone then look out below – better hope 1.00 holds. The pattern suggests a minimum downside target of 0.93 EUR/USD with a likely shot at 0.87 If/when we hit these levels, what will oil, gold, commodities, EM, HY, S&P earnings look like?


  6. First time since the SPX commenced its 3 month consolidation that testing one extreme did not meet with a swift and sure and unmistable reversal for a test of the opposite extreme. A bull close today would return the situation to normal.

    This is just an observation, and it is not meant to imply a directional bias one way or the other. Went to bed last night thinking we’d be looking at a Big Up set up with today’s price action, and thus far not seeing it.

  7. jeffbalin says:

    To me, before major 2 ends the rsi5 Spx daily should get decently oversold. I think I should see some kind of blob there, I mean this is a major 2 low we’re looking for. I see a sliver around int A 1993, that’s it. Now go look at the Dow….there is nothing there! So I’m waiting for a big blob, but it looks like it has to drop a lot before I’ll see it. And, if it has drop that much before I see it, then we might get into Pri 4 territory. With the monthly macd starting to head down around the may 2134 high and still heading down, plus all this choppiness that has been going on so long, another reason to think we are still in pri 4, maybe 1867 maj A, 2116 maj B with at least 1867 to come before this is over. Sure, maybe we are really in major 2. Either way, until I see a decent sized blob, I doubt this downtrend is over.

  8. blackjak100 says:

    Even though breadth is flat with S&P down 6. I think It’s impossible for a market to move higher with new lows 3x’s higher than new highs which is what we have now.

  9. phil1247 says:

    looks like an inside day on both es and zb

    check back tomorrow for a resolution

  10. mjtplayer says:

    Today’s price action and lack of follow through is poor to say the least, back to back days of opening on the high and immediately selling off. Looks like we’re heading down to test yesterday’s lows.

  11. budfox9450 says:

    BoYu update at 12:23 pm est – the BoYu was attemping to for a low, earlier this
    am. But, has failded to do so. The BoYu is, at this moment, still in a downward

  12. Seems like we would have ramped up by now if SPX was going to do a rally.Or possibly we fill a “midday gap”from yesterdays rally.Many times I ve seen those late day moves get retraced the next morning.The dollar up a lot again…silver hanging in there up .14,but needs to break 14.20 to get moving.Whats needed is some more poor economic news to knock the dollar down (if there IS any).It was ignored yesterday with lousy ISM manufacturing.Just watch and wait is my best advice.

    • There is always the examples of 12/21 and even yesterday’s short covering stampede heading into the closes to consider. I agree with you that technically I’d have expected a bit more rally and a lot less chop today. But then I remind myself that not only can anything happen, but anything has happened, and it always does😉

  13. Millan Tomic says:

    One interesting fact is that both Trannies and Small Caps are very close to 200 wma within 3%, i have found this to be a reliable base for stronger bounces from there.

  14. Page says:

    Today is the day to start the long positions🙂

  15. budfox9450 says:

    Those of you who received my SP500, BoYu chart.
    Letting you know, the SP has been attempting to form a low
    at the lower red, wedge line. It is a low, that is not yet
    confirmed, but does appear to be trying to form. SP futures
    remain above 1992, would be a sign of strength, imo.

  16. blackjak100 says:

    TC, doesn’t the initial rally off 1990 look like a 3 on your short term charts? I know it doesn’t necessarily mean we are going lower.

  17. kvilia says:

    Why such a hassle? Just post the chart here like we all do – all friends. Or you do want email addresses?

    • john b says:

      yes people,have ,offered advise,on how,..but he , persists,,………………end

      • budfox9450 says:

        hehehehe….blame it on the old guy, eh…

        • budfox9450 says:

          Nah….Kvilla, and John. Understand, what your asking for.
          And, from your perspective – sure it makes sense. But,
          as the Father of the BoYu and several other indicator
          I have created, along the path to learning about the stock
          market, timing and such.
          Prefer the song – I’ll do it my way…..
          Actually, suspect that most viewers for the 1st time,
          can’t understand it, nor how it works, much less, why.

          • budfox9450 says:

            In closing – not meant to be mean. But, One of the most
            interesting lessons I have learned, from this site is.
            No one seems to care, that the SP500 at 2134, Made it’s
            price high in May of 2014. I’d best, stop there. Or you folks
            will get really upset…..Have a great day,…

  18. budfox9450 says:

    Wish to share my SP500 BoYu chart for January 4th…
    Send your email, for the chart only to
    FREE chart, shall not save email addresses….this ends
    at the end of the day Jan. 5th….Bud

  19. lunker1 says:

    Tony because MACD sufficiently oversold…if 2019 pivot is cleared = green 2? Or not until 2046 cleared?

  20. I am pretty sure we will get up signal in near future. This is range market. That’s all.

  21. rabbittrader1 says:

    The unfilled GAP at 2044 would be an excellent place to enter short positions on the SPX for the downward DROP to Target 1402 by October 2016 ,IMHO.

  22. fionamargaret says:

    Thanks Tony, and kudos to all the very excellent contributors/readers of the blog.
    Happy New Year All. xxx

  23. gtoptions says:

    Thanks Tony
    As predicted, several times. Finally, maybe possibly.😉

    • kevinm76 says:


      Seasonally for election years, markets will often make a final bottom (with a minor bottom and retrace in late Jan). 2011 was a rare case and as such we shouldn’t expect that to happen this year. The liquidity picture is 100% different this time.

      Sadly I thought Primary III hadn’t ended but with this poor performance since December it’s quite clear not only is III over but IV and V are over as well. Welcome to the bear market that started in May 2015. Tony will eventually change tune. I just hope he does it sooner rather than later. There are many people here that will jump off a bridge if he says so.


      • kevinm76 says:

        meant to say bottom in March, then rally into the summer

      • Dex T says:

        Wow! That’s a fast conversion from bull to bear!!

        Congrats on being objective!

        • kevinm76 says:

          well……what I didn’t mention was it had to clear previous highs and fast to remain valid. The bounce from October was nice but fake. To get a clear picture where we are, look at the russell 2000 it clearly had 5 waves up since 2009. We are clearly in the early stages of a bear market. The writing is on the wall. The fed will help it come true with their lack of liquidity.


          • Dex T says:

            Well it was tough to tell with your – S&P to 2400 posts and all the exclamations points…

            A number of people have commented on the Russell in the past. It’s in a bear. However there is still a chance that these markets (S&P, DOW, NASDAQ) are in a bull- but they need to get going now.

          • jaja2121 says:

            Kevin, if you think Tony will eventually have to readjust the count, where do you think P3 and P5 will be placed?
            many thanks..

          • simpleiam says:

            jaja asked the magic question. Where did those waves begin and end?

      • aahmichael says:

        Just when I thought I had seen everything. For the past few months, you’ve been pounding the table, typing in caps and exclamation points, and shouting from the rooftops that we were still in P3, and that we would see 2400 in 2016 before P3 ended. Then, the market chops sideways for 2 months, in a 4% range, and suddenly, you’re saying that not only is P3 done, but so is P4 and P5!! Really???? A 2 month sideways chop in a tight range just invalidated your call for the next 5 years of market action???? Where did P4 and P5 go? Did they just vanish in thin air?

        • kevinm76 says:

          Hey I’m not MARRIED to an idea. That is for amateurs

          • aahmichael says:

            I’m not questioning your change from bullish to bearish, however, I am questioning your wave count. I don’t see how anyone could be working with a count and claim that we’re in wave 3, and then suddenly claim that not only has wave 3 completed, but so have waves 4 and 5. If you told us the ending points of waves 1,2,3,4,and 5 in your revised count, it would be more clear.

            • kevinm76 says:

              Elliot wave can be a hindsight indicator sometimes. You adjust when you see problems. Tony does it often, in fact if he is confused by the count he will just a, b until the sun don’t shine lol

    • mike7x says:

      3rd time the charm?🙂

    • simpleiam says:

      That would be nice, gto. Looking forward to it!

  24. Thanks Tony and al. I was busy today so did not look at the daytime tread. I know why oil was up in the morning. But why did it go down after that?

    • Fed gov Williams said there would possibly be 3-5:rate hikes.Dollar exploded…he didn t add it was an early April Fools joke.

      • fionamargaret says:

        …it was suggested today, that he was only repeating something said previously.
        Well, they should maybe check Bloomberg’s archive tapes, where it was discussed ad nauseum with the conclusion the Fed would not raise more than twice (If that)….and, oh, if there is nothing surreptitious going on, let them all give their views after market…..

        • Dex T says:


          At the December meeting a series of 4 additional rate hikes for this year was proposed. The Fed’s estimate for the fed-funds rate is 1.38% at the end of 2016. Additional hikes for 2017 are considered to bring the rate over 2%.

          So Williams didn’t bring up anything new- although by emphasizing it he is letting the markets know that the Fed is serious.

          “The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent. Policy makers separately forecast an appropriate rate of 1.375 percent at the end of 2016, the same as September, implying four quarter-point increases in the target range next year, based on the median number from 17 officials.”

          • They are afraid gold will break out and take investment money from equities.They don t want investors switching to something beaten down,they prefer everyone staying in stocks for maximum wealth effect.The Feds goal is to keep the equity market from crashing.The less options there are to invest in,the better…they think (I think).

          • Dex T says:

            Possibly. It was certainly the trade for P2 back in 2011 when gold skyrocketed to over $1900 and equities tumbled.

            The Fed is no fan of gold because having gold increasing means people have less faith in them and their monetary policy.

          • 2-year Treasury ($UST2Y) was .16% four years ago, now @ 1.02%
            No gold rally until the rates on the 2 stop going up

          • fionamargaret says:

            Dearest Dex,
            Did you catch the interview with Jeremy Siegal a few moments ago on Bloomberg – “lucky to have 2 rate rises” next year – I guess unless “they” find inflation.
            Just realized STFU meant shut the Fed up – how silly is that..
            Why don’t we wait until the end of the year, and compare notes.

          • Dex T says:

            Hello Fiona!!

            I did not. Personally I don’t care much for Siegel.

            However, I agree completely. I am not sold on the idea of further rate rises and will wait and see the result.

            The Fed officials love the spotlight too much and need to go back to policy. Their meetings should be enough.

          • simpleiam says:

            I don’t think there will be any more rate hikes until after the election. With the pitiful growth we have, and now China, and Saudi/Iran, not to mention Crude. The wind is pretty much out of the sails.

  25. thanks tony. and great call xuwu, I am looking forward to see if your next call of 2044 works out.

  26. mjtplayer says:

    Thanks Tony. Do you have comments on my count? Anyone in “the group” looking a count like this?

      • mjtplayer says:

        No, I don’t follow Neowave and know nothing about it; my background is traditional EW.

        It’s just a expanding diagonal, a 5-wave count but with each subwave moving in 3-waves or abcde moves, not 5-waves. Helps to explain the choppiness, overlapping and truncated waves – no?

        Like it’s cousin the ending diagonal, the expanding diagonal is also a terminal pattern; which in this case would end the bull market. That said, the upcoming major wave E should be the largest of the waves and take the SPX to new highs.

        See figure 1-19:

    • So, in an expanding diagonal, wave D needs to be longer than wave B, and it isn’t yet. Typically in Expanding Diagonals the internal wave structures are all simple zigzags, and wave B in this case is a flat, and not a zigzag. I considered that counts weeks ago but ruled it out due to the flat B wave at the bottom. The rules for an Expanding Diagonal are listed on page 87 & 88 of the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter. The third rules says, “… all the waves always sub-divide as zigzags”, so it is hard to cut any slack on that one. Hope this helps.

  27. Lee X says:

    Thanks Tony

    Futures @ the moment are .50 back from last nights high / today’s session low …it also equals SPX 2019 pivot
    Congrats to all the winner winner chicken dinner posters.😉
    See ya Saturday morning amigo

  28. xuwu992000 says:

    As predicted a couple days ago, we did see a crash-landing BLACK MONDAY today and the market magically stopped at 1990, the exact point as I predicted. Not bragging, check out my posts in the last couple of days. Today’s update: W-A ended at 1990; W-B underway (most likely a flat between 1990-2030)
    (see my update at

    • reddragonleo says:

      It’s always wise to NOT brag or SkyNet will make you look like the guy you have as your avatar. I’ve called a lot correct as well but I know just as soon as I get to comfortable I’ll miss one. You made a good call last week for sure, and you have been factual in stating it. If you get one wrong, (we all do) be sure to state it as well. It earns you respect. I hate it when someone only shows up when they make a great call and then disappear when one (or several) go against them (not saying that’s you as you haven’t been one to brag a bunch as I’ve seen on some of the Skype boards I’m on). Good job though…🙂

      • pooch77 says:

        But Red i hear ya

      • xuwu992000 says:

        Thanks, Red, for the cool comments and nice words. I followed your site for at least 5 years, and know what you are talking about. Visit my little blog which I started a couple of weeks ago, and I did acknowledge how stupid I was if I made an incorrect count. That said, it did feel thrilled if you NAILED it. I mean, I calculated that W-A will stop at 1990. BANG! It turned after it touched upon the line in the sand. EW is a truly amazing tool!!!

        • reddragonleo says:

          It was a great analysis you did and you deserve a “high five” for a great call. Here’s what I think will happen… your “flip flop” from one A wave (or B wave… or C wave) from one type in one incidence to another (as you went into great detail on your blog) will work great for awhile.

          You’ll see the patterns do just that… one will be a slow mover and the other fast. One will be a small retrace and the other huge. Then out of the blue SkyNet will change it all up and repeat the same pattern for 2,3, 4, or 5 times until every sheep spots the repeated pattern… and then it will go back to your “flip flop” cycle again.

          It’s kinda like when the market goes into a sideways chop like from January of 2015 to around July before the crash. Then there was the trending up market in 2013 and 2014. The market will flip from trending to chopping for awhile and then flop back to trending again.

          I suspect the same will happen with the pattern you just discovered. It will work for awhile as the market is trying to find a direction. Then it will start a repeating pattern as it trends… like gap down, slow grind up, gap down, slow grind up, gap down, slow grind up, etc… Meaning it won’t be something that flips to one pattern the first time and flops to the other pattern the the second time… like gap down, slow grind up, gap down, fast big bounce, gap down, slow grind up, gap down, fast big bounce.

          You get the picture. But again, great call. 🙂

      • CampFreddie says:

        Red … “It’s always wise to NOT brag or SkyNet will make you look like the guy you have as your avatar” 🙂🙂

    • pooch77 says:

      Nice call,gotta give credit were its due

    • xuwu992000 says:

      I want to make another bold call here: we are going to CLOSE THE GAP AT 2044 in two days (no trading advice, though; but it is the most likely scenario based on my count).

    • with all due respect, you started your blog like 2 months ago. Let it run for 2 years, then see what happens. Good luck to your wave counting.

      • xuwu992000 says:

        I have been actively trading for over 20+ years, and got wiped out twice. I know what I am doing and enjoy the fun of making money / getting the wave count right. Wave counting is always secondary to a reliable trading signal and ruthless trading discipline. Good luck, 新竹。

        • B Seagle says:

          Absolutely, positively, “Wave counting is always secondary to a reliable trading signal and ruthless trading discipline”

  29. Thanks TC!

    Currently flat though bear leg isn’t under stress unless a close above 2038.21 (slight mods with live data); target for this move came in at 1952.92. Will look at action around TC’s pivots or my clusters to guide subsequent trades. Hope everyone is successful in the New Year!

  30. torehund says:

    Think the correction is done on the Nasdaq, from Nov top its a finished A-X-B-C. Major 2 bottom and a happy new year to us all within short🙂
    Maybe there will be a World-Wake-Up event that finally makes the leaders around the world ponder what the heck they are doing…

  31. chrisk44342 says:

    We got a buy signal for SPX on the hourly VIX. I expect more upside for the market in the short term

  32. James Reed says:

    Happy new year indeed! Sorry to post a basic question but what defines a flat?

    • A flat is basically an A-B-C zigzag — where the length of A=B=C. The end of A in terms of price is pretty much the same level as where C ends. If C goes well beyond the end of A, then it is no longer a flat.

      as opposed to

      • pimacanyon says:

        classical EW says that the A wave of a flat will have only 3 subwaves, whereas the A wave of a zigzag will be a 5 wave impulse. So theoretically, you should be able to determine whether a correction is going to end up being a flat or a zigzag by looking at the internal structure of the A wave.

        Looks like Tony is counting the A wave of this correction as a 3 wave structure, so the entire correction should unfold as a flat. That gives support to the idea that the correction may have finished today. Classical EW also says that C waves are always motive waves, either a 5 wave impulse or an Ending Diagonal triangle. You can count the move down as a 5 wave impulse, but the 5th wave is very long compared to the other two. What would be more likely in my opinion is that the very long subwave that ended at today’s low was just the 3rd wave of the C wave, or maybe even 3 of 3 of C, which means we will need a 4 and a 5, or even a 4, 5, 4, 5.

        Happy New Year!

    • Three waves down, such as a zigzag (a-b-c) to an A wave, followed by three waves up to at least 90% of the prior high to a B wave, followed by five waves down to a C wave which usually makes a low beneath the A wave. OR — there is a more complicated structure of three waves down to a W wave, followed by three waves up to at least 90% of the prior high in an X wave, followed by three waves down (not five waves down) to a Y wave.

      In each case, the upward wave comes within at least 90% of the prior high of 3, for example. When the B wave up or the X wave up exceeds 105%, then the wave qualifies for an “expanded flat” or “irregular flat” which means the C wave can be shorter than A OR much longer than A.

      Flats are very tricky to trade because the B or X wave up makes breakout traders think there is a ‘valid’ breakout, when instead, it is or can be, just a false break out. I high recommend reading the Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter, if the term ‘flat correction is not familiar to you’.

  33. mike7x says:

    Thanks Tony. So…HNY! Never mind, already did that. Anyway, did we just set up the first WROC of 2016? Hmmm…

  34. blackjak100 says:

    Thx TC! With the bounce into close, the bullish scenario is still alive for now. Not going into hole like budfaux and then pop back up every hour, but I intend to be relatively silent until the weekly close. Still bullish for now despite my squiggles being worthless. A first day drop of new year greater than 1% has resulted in a very bullish rest of Jan in the past. Those stats were posted this AM. I hope 2016 is no different. Cheers & GL!

    • I really was just trying to be helpful, and instructive regarding your post of a wave 1, up, followed by a flat, for 2 – noting that second waves are not ‘usually’ flats. So, your count just fought the odds. Regarding the continued bull case, could I just ask you to note how many times now price has ‘not’ hit the upper Bollinger bands ( a sign of upward weakness) , but ‘has’ hit the lower Bollinger Bands (a sign of strength downward strength). One thing for sure – there will be more volatility. Prices will change and so, too, hopefully, will people.

      • blackjak100 says:

        I realize second waves are not typically flats, but they are generally a sign of strength so with the count I proposed, it fit well. I also realize price has not hit the upper BB, but it’s obvious we have been in a correction since 2116 so why would it?

        You were right in the short term, but the int term is still TBD IMO. Just remember that if and when we hit an new ATH in Jan/Feb. Still looks extremely corrective from 2116 despite your proposed LD which fits but does not have the ‘right look’. What does have the right look is a double three (WXY) where W is ZZ (ending 1993) and Y is a flat (ending 1990). Purpose of double threes is to move price sideways and take up time. If it ended today, it will have lasted 1.618 * Major 1 in time.

    • gasman88 says:

      “A first day drop of new year greater than 1% has resulted in a very bullish rest of Jan in the past”

      There were few exceptions, 2008 most notable one

      • blackjak100 says:

        correct, but we were in recession at the time (Dec 2007). Being in the housing industry, I can tell you we are not in a recession yet.

        • kevinm76 says:

          You should know that housing is local and as such, EVERYWHERE tops out at DIFFERENT times. Sorry to be so blunt but your analysis on “your” housing industry is completely subjective. For example it looks like the highest end homes/condos of the northeast are feeling the hurt”currently”. However the large chunk of the “sheep” middle class appear to be a dear on the road about to see the headlights lol. Housing, just like every single time since man began coming out of the caves, will fall once unemployment ticks higher. You know the drill. Unemployment is lagging thus the next housing crisis will take time to show up. Meanwhile all the rednecks will build away, making housing evermore out of reach for the majority of folks. Such is the way it is. The housing industry is the reason why things are so stagnate.

          You’re smart you should know this.


          • blackjak100 says:

            Just like you should know we haven’t been in a bear market since May. Vix don’t trade sub 11 in bear markets like it did in early August. Bear market since early nov? I can hear that argument.

            • kevinm76 says:

              Yeah I guess still below the all time high for the last 7 months and NOT making any all time high during is completely bullish right? lol

          • simpleiam says:

            So, Kevin, which “rednecks” are you watching re: Housing? I mean, there are so many rednecks around, let’s get specific. Houston area rednecks starting to lose money on homes. Any other Bubbas you had in mind?

            • kevinm76 says:

              Simpleiam- Sadly in the US the majority are rednecks, fat and overweight land whales. Throw a dart at the map and you will find them lol

        • rcun says:

          BJ100 – If I am not mistaken, you are in the Minneapolis area as am I. Our housing (and for that matter economic environment) is great compared to many other parts of the country I visit…which is why I live here in the Minnetonka area. High end homes and starters are moving strong. The mid level inventory seems to be building according to my realtor and mortgage friends. They are still selling, but at a slower pace. That said, new construction EVERYWHERE!!!
          My son lives out of state (Alabama) and the economy is hurting thus housing has stalled. Just my 2 cents.
          Best to your 2016!

    • mike7x says:

      (Graphed) Here’s what happens after stocks get walloped on day 1…

  35. fotis2 says:

    Thanks Tony I like ”a somewhat disturbing way to start the new year” great suff!

  36. phil1247 says:


    the lead dog shows the way

    primary IV will probably occur near DJT 7000

    this is the confluence of short target from high and 50% retrace of proposed wave III

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